Member Info for ggplyr

Not if there is nothing to update no, if they are on track to materially beat or miss expectations then they are obligated to give an update. If there is no change then no. The year end isn't until March

Hi Seatank, any ideas how Total Funds Required to be Segregated relates to US income? i.e. how we can use it as a proxy for income

Hi Sea, the customer segregated funds increase is good.

However, i dont see how a falling VIX is good though. VIX measures expected volatility in the S&P over the next 30 days. I believe normally a high VIX is good for plus, not the other way round. Perhaps a high VIX is partly good because it gets more people having a gamble on the stock market for pursuit of bigger potential gains. Perhaps a high VIX translates into bigger spreads? I'm not sure.

4 or 5 more days like today and this might be fairly priced.

Https://www.cityam.com/typhoo-tea-rescued-out-of-administration-in-10m-deal-by-vapes-giant/

10.2m

Supreme will Outsource manufacture

Includes book value of 7.5m of debtors

Expecting 30 percent gross margin. (Gross margins of 7.5m based on most recently available stat accounts)

I assume we will get an RNS today

Just because you expect me to say something negative... i prefer PG tips :-)

My idol is Ben Affleck

Hi Joker, great to hear from you!

You are right, i do focus on the negativies, i do it on purpose. Most of the time these forums are an echo chamber, where most people focus on only the positives. i could join the high fiving band wagon, "great, an £3m extra EBITDA", but where do i learn everything if i pick the same side of the debate as everyone else.

I dont think Suzanne comes across as a grumpy accountant.

88nics not selling well, although plans to manufacture in house in april (which didnt make much sense to me if its not performing well)

£15m working capital required when vape tax comes in

Unknown amount of capex required when vape tax comes in to buy equipment for putting the duty stamps on vape products

The acquistions used to be good, clearly drinks seems like a bit of a gamble to me. it cost 25% the value of their equity, and its into an unknown to them market.

They think it will do 3.5m EBITDA, take off 1.2m of depreciation (from clearly drinks accounts), tax at 25% leaving PAT of 1.725m, thats a pretty pathetic Return on capital employed of 11% before their overhead allocation. It needs a lot of growth to be be anything like Sandy's other investments.

These were not great results. FY 2025 is the only year they are forecasting an improvement. no chagnes to 2026 onwards.

Vaping revenue is down.

Sandy said in previous investor presentations that there would be no impact from a disposalble ban. 13% drop in vaping revenue tells us otherwise. there has been no corresponding uptake in non disposable revenue.

Amortisation of brand of clearly drinks has not yet started to be charged because they are claiming they cant value it yet. This is on top or a large increase in overheads.

These are mediocare results.

What percentage of rise in fee earners does keystone have to grow by to justify it's p/e ratio?

Anyone have any first hand experience of how much they vape compared to how much they smoke. the government has assumed that 10ml is equivalent to 100 cigarettes. However, Sandy has previously said the average customer buys 2-3 bottles of 10ml a week, so thats 200-300 cigarette equivalents, which seems like a pretty hardcore smoker!

Supreme don't fill/bottle their own pods do they? just the 10ml liquid? I can't find anything that says they do manufacture their own pods

So if non disposables look, work the same, and are priced the same, as disposables the impact is likely pretty small.

The vape tax though, may have a bigger impact on the 10ml business than the disposable replacements, i.e. non disposable pod systems.

The price of the 10ml is going from £1.20 to £3.84. that seems big.

A non disposable pod, prefilled with 2x 2ml goes from £4.50 to £5.56.

It will be really interesting to see the impact on demand.

Tedmak, so anyone who forked out more money will get the same dividend as the prior year. how is this good?

If last year you give me £100 i give you £5 a year.

this year, im happy to give you £5 a year. but im going to need another £25 off you first, otherwise ill only give you £4 a year.

Thanks, so no reason why when the disposable ban comes in, anyone that would normally get a disposable for a night out they doesn't buy a non disposable from the same brand.

I dont understand how this trades at such a high p/e

Anyone know if rechargable products come fully charged?

If you're using Headcount alone does not equate to at risk to ni rises.

Wage cost as a proportion of operating profit or gross profit would be better.

The higher the gross or operating margin, the less any ni, or any other inflationary rises are going to matter to a company.