Member Info for ggplyr

My tea leaves were slightly green today, so Unilever will hit £50 on the next 5 working days.

Myb

Bioventix has a higher margin and return on equity

Keystone law is decent too.

Then lots of tech companies tend to be similar.

Of course this is reflected in the share price of these companies though.

@ lemonade regarding "Plus500 continually has to invest in acquiring new customers to replace the churned ones who lose money or are kicked off the platform"

The Average User Acquisition Cost (AUAC) KPI is misleading.

The calculation is all marketing/advertising spend divided by number of new customers. This implies that there is no cost of marketing spent against existing and old customers, this simply isn't true.

For example, im a plus 500 customer, i used to see keifer sutherland promoting plus on a TV advert, on occasion this tempted me to go back onto Plus. Same as all the youtube adverts i get for plus 500. These are a cost which are directed at me, a existing customer, which may make hop onto plus to take a position.

What's my point?...some marketing spend maintains active customers, it doesnt have to invest in stock/inventory. it would be better to focus on return on equity or margin rather than marketing spend

@Sea, regarding "I believe the US business was 10-15% of revenues in 2023, so should reach 30%+ in 2025"

I think you are just making up numbers for the US business.

I agree with lemonade here, if it was at this level it would be reported separately, not to say it wont be come year end.

Taverham, not much has changed though. Only that this financial year is "above expectations". We have no idea how much above,.so a 5 percent rise seems fair.

If you believe in the company hold tight, at the current pe the buy backs are good value. It's a buy and hold company.

How do you know directors bought more this morning?

The VIX is up, markets are dropping. Great for PLUS.

Time to top up

Energy switching not happening any time soon. Often just stopped that for another 6 months at least

After reading all LTI and Fleccy's correspondence so far i have learned a few things.

However, at present i am team fleccy

Not as bad as i thought but not great set of results, down on Q1.

Quidco's gross margin is declining a lot, its a low margin part the business to start with.

Prepayments need some explanation, its up nearly 20% since year end and prior year to £12m. I wonder if they are prepaying the cost they incur for the "free days out" promotion over a year. I also didnt need to buy anything to qualify for a free day out, so internal controls need some work.

Any ideas why the drop today?

My money is on a profit warning this update.

I'm sure they could pick out worse companies. and yeah, you know what you get with grid, a dividend paying company financed by excessive debt.

Id hardly call it great, Share price has returned about 5percent a year. Dividend less. That includes when it was slowed to return a better RoE.

Just as a comparison, Unilever has returned double that per year over 45 years.

Lti, but what does that translate into share price and dividends given the constraints of it's subpar RoE?

Sure electricity generation will rise rapidly.

What I can't see is what this really means for grid.

Grid makes a return on equity of up to 10 percent. So if it were to invest all profits back into the business It can increase its asset base at 10 percent per year, if it takes on the same proportion of debt.

In turn it's valuation should also follow this 10 percent over the long term.

Where do you think this asset base is coming from?

More rights issue? That didn't work so great, NG is still down on theoretical ex rights price currently.

More debt? I think its got more than enough.

Retained earnings? It doesn't make enough.

The dividend? But this is a dividend stock.

Sale of bits of the business? this doesn't increase the asset base unless sold at a profit to book value. The bits that make decent returns (ie the unregulated bits) are the only bits it would make a decent profit on, it's never a good idea to sell a high ROCE bit if a business to invest in low ROCE bits

EPs isn't going to rise, it's going to drop. There are considerably more shares

How can its EPS rise significantly? its Return on equity is capped by the regulator at under 10%.

With so much debt this will go like Thames Water