Member Info for ggplyr

I've listened to it.

Can't say I follow what they are doing, they buy Salter, for the brand, then rebrand it.

Focusing on spending to upskill staff on selling.

They talk about "robotic automation" which is fancy way of saying software and process improvements. (Nothing new here)

I don't see what makes this company a great investment.

It is cyclical with a fair amount of it products being discretionary for customers. There was a sky news article today saying more people are struggling to make ends meet which is never good for discretionary. But then its also facing competion from Temu and the like.

They previously talk about them using the likes of microsofts no code/low code automation products like copilot and power automate to reduce overheards which is great, but so is everyone else, and you can only do so much by cutting costs. At some point you need to be able to grow sales not at the expense of gross margin- i wonder if its possible anymore.

Thanks.

Not sure how they plan to achieve that GP % though, ive just had a look at typhoos accounts for the last few years. Gross profit as follows

2023 4% (they had a lot of problems this year so not a normal year)

2022 14%

2021 15%

2020 8%.

If we assumed that all their staff costs were part of cost of sales, which wont be the case, but lets pretend for a minute.

that would make Gross profit as follows:

2023 15%

2022 27%

2021 27%

2020 19%

still no where near the 30%

I guess there could be some products that are low margin that could be discountinued.

But we know they are forecasting 20m of revenue in FY26 from Equinity's most recent note, coupled with Sandy's comment of 2-300k of profit (lets take that as 250k per month) that comes to 15% margin in line with 2022 & 2021.

The of course know a lot more than i do, so i'll take them at their word that 30% is achievable, but it doesnt look like they are on track for it yet even with the manufacturing in house.

Hi FinancialSkeptic, @ 10minutes in he says typhoo tea is contributing 2-300k of profits per month. I assumed it was gross profit only because they say they cant separate out anything below the gross profit line. where did they talk about 30% GP for tea?

Answered my own question - the equity papers have errors, the total lines for FY25 and 26 dont equal the sum of the parts.

Has anyone looked at the Equinity papers before typhoo and after- im really struggling to understand how the paper produced following the typhoo aquisition doesnt have any increase in revenue. Despite it showing they expect to do £20m per year.

Also worth nothing that Sandy said they are doing 2-300k of gross profit from typhoo a month in this presentation FinancialSkeptic shared last week.

Https://youtu.be/xVng7HtYg9I?si=1UKd_UUjWUh-V6W6

It looks like they are being really cautious about 2026 guidance so i assume there is a lot of potential upside.

No lorenz, that is incorrect

Predictions for todays closing SP?

New customers look bad, the first quarter was pretty volatile yet it recruited few new customers. Everything else looks reasonable-good.

New clients is a better indicator, but that's not public information that is updated in real time. Whereas downloads and US segregated funds are real time info.

As to whether US segregated funds Vs downloads is the better indicator, neither is better, they can be used in parallel. US segregated funds has doubled since the year end. last year 10 percent of revenue came from the US. So very crudely the US business has doubled.

However the margin on the US business is considerably less that the core business.

The downloads are a very crude proxy for revenue, but they have been particularly low in q1. I am interested to see how they have done in q1

Hi John, a quarter can make all the difference, so too early to tell. But I'm thinking q1 has not been great. I could be wrong and interpreting the implications of fewer downloads incorrectly.

Bad first quarter, app downloads have been really low oddly. Offset slightly by increase in segregated US funds but insufficient to compensate for lower downloads. It's been lower across all geographies.

I'm really curious about our Q1 results. I see two KPIs telling us polar opposites. on the one had the US segregated funds is double that in the prior quarter. However, downloads of Plus500 app this quarter has been really terrible compared to the prior quarter.

Understood, cheers John

Hi Doodoo, where have you seen the hedging?

Ive just looked up the average VIX during Q3 2024, it's only 17. Slightly higher than the average for the year but not Stella by anymeans

I'd expect to see hedges recorded in the accounts, but there aren't any so I don't think so.

What is BBook? (You've wrote this a couple of times in previous posts but can't figure out what it means)

Extract from the accounts, disucssing hedging:

"The Group’s real-time OTC market position monitoring system is intended to allow it to continually monitor its OTC market exposure against these limits. If exposures exceed these limits, the Group either hedges or new OTC client positions are being offered in a smaller size and partially could be rejected under the Group’s policy."

50m swing. Movement is mainly an increase in the loss on futures contracts. It's the customers loss, not PLUS500s loss. The market rebounded today, so tomorrow I'd expect it to bounce back.

So it's the customer loss, not withdrawn as far as I can tell

Plus do not benefit if the customer wins or loses on their futures and options. (Well, arguably they benefit when the customer wins, because then the customer has more to play with). They don't hedge futures or options, they are the middle man.

They havent hedged anything before. But again, it's not applicable to US business as their is nothing to hedge.

This is my understanding, I could of course be wrong

Its £1.35m. Lets see if anyone more senior buys any.

Thanks Forensic, I'm unaccustomed to someone agreeing with any of my comments that are negative towards a stock!