RE: £203.7524 Aug 2017 10:20
Think RBG initially dismissed Deltic proposal as all-share merger not overly appealing and Stonegate offer would mean managers remain employed, for now at least. Imagine Deltic have suggested possible cash offer so RBG belatedly given access.
Have copied part of a broker note for info. Before anyone shouts, this is not me giving advice(!) Seems like management/Artemis happy to take anything over 200p but, all things considered, I personally think 230p would be "okay" given there are two interested parties and the synergies for the combined operation, whichever it may be, but 250p a "fairer" valuation. Greedy? Me? Possibly.
Agreed offer from Stonegate - 203p per share in cash – 62% premium to pre-bid closing price but 13% discount to 12m high in March 2017
75% in value of shares voted needed to agree to deal – 20.94% obtained so far including management’s 2%, Artemis 14.77% and Castlefield Fund Partners 4.17%
From Revolution’s view – “attractive and certain value in cash today for Revolution shareholders”
From Stonegate’s view – we think they are getting Rev Bars on the cheap (6.5x current EBITDA pre stripping out Head Office costs
Revolution has confirmed its FY17 profit forecast given at the July trading update (flat EBITDA YoY) – which should give some comfort that Mike Foster has not uncovered any further issues
STOP PRESS – Deltic announced at 7:36am that they’ve been granted due diligence access and that they’re evaluating a possible cash offer. This is about to get interesting…
Sector trades on 8.9x EV/EBITDA = 285p for Revolution (and that’s post opening costs)
Or if we look at the rumoured valuation for Be-@-One of £60m vs its historic trailing store (e.g. ex central costs) EBITDA of £7.5m = 8x EBITDA (Be-@-one also has a higher EBITDA margin of 16% vs RBG 10%))