Member Info for gewillia

Ooops! WMH announced on the 17th that it was postponing the FY Results to 4th March. This RNS wasn't picked up by LSE, nor anyone else. Only found it this am on the London Stock Exchange website. Sorry for the misinformation yesterday.

Well that was ten minutes of life wasted. Karolina has the toneless, lifeless voice of a computer. Very interested in her own opinions. Asks every patball question three times, before shutting up, so Ulrik can tell us how wonderful he is.

Tip for next time, Karolina; Ask him why he surrendered to the first offer made? How valuable is the contract he's signed with Caesar's? How many shares is he getting in CZR?

Tomorrow we find out just how much Ulrik left on the table, when the annual results are published for the last time.

Welcome Roofer. Willie Hill publishes year-end results to 31/12/20 on Wednesday. The State of New Jersey has already announced that December's sports-betting turnover was 125% ahead of December '19. Here's hoping WMH gives some firm numbers, instead of rather meaningless percentages.

New Jersey says the state's total sports betting turnover for 2020 was almost $399 million, up $100 million from 2019. See:

https://www.nj.gov/oag/ge/docs/Financials/PressRel2020/December2020.pdf

And the normal profit margin for a book is 8%. I haven't yet worked out how to get this for other states, but you can see from NJ that the numbers are growing like topsy, so we might well be in for good news.

As GLEN approaches it's 10th anniversary on the LSE. The SP languishes down under £3, comparing most unfavourably with it's all time high of £5.51 achieved during it's first week of trading in May 2011. A price it's never been within a light-year of since.

What was it the poet said about, "Never glad confident morning again"?

And if you think that that's my wallet talking, you're dead right. Ivan has done fine for himself. The rest of us, not so well.

The placing price is usually a small discount to the closing trading price. I've never seen a premium, but I have seen the occasional larger discount (greater than 5%) when the market reckoned the company was trying to raise a lot of money for their size.

I'm guessing that the market considers this to be a large raise, because the SP has fallen from almost £15 to £13 since last Friday.

Some forty years ago I paid high fees to the school of hard knocks, in the form of the Vancouver Stock Exchange, "investing" (read gambling) in junior gold miners.

One day I met an accomplished and honest broker. I poured out my many disappointments. He was a student of gold mining plc's worldwide and asked me if I knew how many junior miners ever became serious producers, paying dividends and listed on major exchanges? I hadn't a pup's notion, so he told me - One in ten thousand. You've a better chance of getting struck by lightning.

He concluded with a sensible recommendation; keep following junior miners and as many fall by the wayside, the odd one will have a sufficiently good prospect, sufficient capital, and sufficiently skilled management to bring a company close to the point where it's going to start producing. That's when you invest your hard-earned cash. When the mine is actually under construction and ready to start selling it's production within 12 months - Not before!

Bluebud, I'm very interested in your use of the the phrase "and locking in the profit". I enjoy arguing with my broker whenever she uses it, by pointing out that if I sell a profitable share to reinvest elsewhere, I haven't locked in anything. All I've done is shifted the risk from Company A which is definitely making me money, to Company B, where my fingers are crossed that it might be profitable too.

Years ago I spent time with a financially very successful commodities trader, who taught me the phrase, "Run your profits". In fact he taught me to average up, or buy more, as a profitable share rose. Averaging up has made me an awful sight more money since then, than averaging down ever did before that, because he also taught me, "Cut your losses". If a share doesn't rise as anticipated, or starts to fall more than 5%, it goes on the potential-haircut list & gets tossed before it hits the -15% mark. The reason why is irrelevant. I second-guessed Mr. Market, who doesn't agree with me.

"I got that wrong" was possibly the hardest thing to admit, up to that point & "averaging down" is a very beguiling siren song, but in truth, doing that is putting more cash into a trade that is going the wrong way, in the pious hope that it will turn round, & now wash it's face at a lower SP. But what if it doesn't turn round, or takes years to come good? And also, what about those other shares that are rising today & I'm missing out on, because my money is tied up in a loser instead?

These are just idle Friday afternoon thoughts & certainly NOT criticism of you, or anyone else commenting here. We're all in this to make money & find winners, & I just thought I'd share some strategies that have worked for me. Of course, I do have to be sensible if an averaged up winner really takes off. I went into SMT two years ago and am now up over 150%, having started top-slicing between October to December, & reinvesting the cash in other Baillie Gifford Investment Trusts.

Which leads to a final thought: The FCA insist that all printed material says that "Past Performance is no guarantee of Future Performance". Imho, that is purest twaddle & dead wrong. Good management of plc's and good managers of funds hit purple patches. Some keep it up for decades like Lord Weinstock at GEC and Anthony Bolton at Fidelity SS. They are people to follow, no matter what the FCA says. Poor managers are just as easy to spot as the Baillie Gifford's. In fact, I reckon they're easier to find in funds, because funds are ranked on websites. Show me a one that is 1st or 2nd Quartile for the past 5 or 10 years and there's a candidate for the next shortlist of possible buys.

LGen has been a holding for 3 years. I don't know why it won't rise substantially. Everything tells me it should be over £1 more than it is, but it stubbornly refuses to budge. Mr. Market doesn't love it, but it seems well run, the dividend is good, seems stable & it's a good diversification. We'

RCP closes out 2020 with an unaudited NAV of almost £23, showing a 16% annual return (Capital gain plus dividends) for 2020.

Full year results in early March and the Rothschilds still own either 10%, or 20%, which is why I got in. Never many comments, but that does provide a good snapshot of the growth in value over the years. from £11 in 2012, through £15 in 2015 - It's as if the SP follows the last two digits of the number of the year. £30 in 2030 would do me proud, but I suspect Lord Rothschild will do better than that.

No. Their quote will be on the NYSE, but your broker can easily arrange a sale for you there.

I read these comments as an implicit write-off of all the millions that Imperial has spent over the past few years to build non-cigarette markets in vaping, etc. and, as Pat says below, it could mean another haircut for the dividend.

Opps Everglade, I just took a boo at the NAV and saw the reasons for your question. Investment Trusts want to grow , like any other plc. When their SP is at a premium to the NAV, they can, with shareholder permission, issue new shares to punters for cash. This enables the plc to make further investments in more shares in other plc's.

It also makes thee and me a few millionths of £1 richer, when an investor pays £7.84 for a share that is backed by assets of only £7.60. The plc (us) makes a profit of 25,000 times 24p, or roughly £6,200. The reverse of a dilution.

Many IT's are currently at a premium and so raising extra cash furiously, which they filter back into the market, so causing NAV's to rise generally and SP's with them. Investing institutions are very cash rich right now, with few profitable alternatives to invest in elsewhere. Quite how much of an effect on the overall market this is having, I have no idea, but it must be having some.

There's no such thing as a daft question, Everglade. The only way any of us learn is by asking questions. These trades have to be disclosed because technically it's against the law for a plc to trade in it's own shares, unless it has the shareholders permission. Every RNS will explain to you the reason for the issuance or award.

There are a whole variety of reasons a plc may have permission to trade in it's own shares, usually buying them; this can include an Employees Share Ownership Plan and the granting of options to employees or directors. As you say, there's a minimal dilution when a plc with a float of 500 million shares issues a few tens of thousands and it's really just moving shares around.

I logged on here because I've just bought a second helping. The first having gone up by 20+% since purchase back in early December. Seems to be well managed and doing better than FCSS.

Arsenal, Your note sent me back to the July 2018 announcement of the 50:50 partnership, MGMBet. It is, of course, very light on any detail, except that each party would invest up to $100 million cash on set-up costs. The next revelation of any detail is March last year, when it disclosed a JV total loss of £50 million for the year 2019, which was effectively it's first year of operations.

MGMBet is trading as Roar Digital and 31/12/19 turnover was up over 130% compared to 2018. New partnerships were entered into with the restaurant chain, Buffalo Wild Wings 1,200 stores and Yahoo Sports, very big in fantasy sports contests. Then last August, GVC results to 30/06/20 disclosed that both parties had contributed more cash, for a total investment of $450 million. There was no real financial detail on the US, except that "all online operations showed greater than 10% rises in T/O."

Then we have today, another 130+% increase in online betting t/o and an estimated gross profit of $175-$185 million, meaning that 2020 saw over $5 of T/O for every $1 they had in '18.

I see no reason for MGM to want to break up a JV in which it's invested $225m and will generate them a gross profit share of $90m in only the second year of active operations. They tried to steal their partner's 50% and who can blame them for that? Given the speed with which Hill's directors folded their tent, it would have been borderline negligence not to have tried, even if they didn't really have the ability to pay market value. For me, everything is going according to plan. They traded in 7 states in '19 and forecast they'd be open in 11 in '20, which was indeed the case. Michigan opens tomorrow and New York state is making preliminary noises.

That's not to say we won't see a "Gentlemen, Start your Lawyers" moment, but they estimated their total market at $20 billion a year T/O back in 2018 and today they have 18% of it. That's a business trading $3.9 billion a year for MGMBet. MGM supplies the casinos. ENT supplies the online technology and bookmaking expertise. Why tip up the applecart, when both sides really need each other's business acumen? It'll be fun seeing where we are in another year, I hope. Meantime, April results should reveal a lot more detail.

The expected net revenue from online in the US is now 16% of total group earnings for 2020 and growing like topsy. They have 18% of the US market. Imo, this is a screaming buy at £12.50.

As regards MGM, I'm thinking that their 0.6 of 1 MGM share was a cheeky attempt to see if this board was as limp as William Hill's and also willing to sell-out for hefty salaries from the buyer. MGM has no cash and is heavily indebted, so couldn't raise the bid, when pressed. I reckon Entain will see an SP of £20 within two years and PI's who hold on will see a very profitable outcome by 2025.

You can see how much US investors value the UK bookies: Caesar's was below $55 when the Hill's bid was announced in September. It traded over $80 for the first time on Monday.

Adv11, Do you really mean that a running yield of almost 4% is of no interest to dividend investors? Especially when the SP here has increased by 36p, from c. 140p two years ago, to 176p today.

That's a 15% pa return in income and capital combined, in an era when inflation is under 1%.

Just how much of an income return are you expecting from your dividends?

Dear Roofer, Bezzer & Gumbo, Why on earth do you fall for this Irish conspiracy theorist and his ludicrous claims of Betfair being associated with dubious voting machine in the US? He's nuttier than a fruitcake and all these claims of election fraud have been totally exploded as utter drivel. TV stations like Pox News have been obliged to run prime-time grovelling apologies to Dominion Voting Machines for repeating trump's claims that their machines were hacked.

Now to the real world and serious business: yesterday William Hill issued a trading update. Lost in the small print was the revelation that 4th quarter online revenue in the US was up by 121% compared to Sept-Dec 2019. Even the year-on-year number was up 32%, despite the fact that pro-sports was shut down from March through July.

Bear in mid that market penetration is still only around 25% as each state legalises. New York's governor has finally woken up to the fact that his neighbour, New Jersey, is getting 20/25% of it's tax revenue from New Yorkers driving out of the city to place bets online. He now wants to legalise sports book & casino online gambling. His opening bid is he wants 100% of the profits, like he gets from the state lottery, but he'll settle for a lot less, because making books is much more skilful & complicated than owning a piece of tin covered in flashing lights, that spits out numbered balls, a few times a week.

Imho, within 5 years, UK betting plc's will see their US operations dwarfing their UK businesses. This stock has gone from £60 to £150 in less than 18 months and should go very much higher in time. I'm along for the ride.

There's a trading update due here soon. I wonder what US number's they'll disclose?

Never mind Hill's UK betting shop figures. The name of the game is online in the USA. Hill's say that their online operations in the US during the 4th quarter, when all sports were open and the NFL season being played, showed revenue up 121% compared to Sept-Dec 2019.

Imho it won't be more than 3 to 5 years before the tail wags the dog and the US is far bigger than the UK. The US market is still only 25% open, as the States slowly get round to legislating for legal sports book betting. Just this week New York State's governor complained that 25% of New Jersey's turnover is coming from New Yorkers driving through the tunnels to place bets. He also said that he wanted 100% of the profits once NYS legalises, but that's just an opening bid. Running a bookmaker's is far more complicated and skilful than owning a machine with flashing lights that spits out numbered balls.

The next trading update should be very interesting.

Sell and Buy Caesar's (CZR). Hill discloses that online revenue in the US in the 4th quarter was 121% ahead of 2019 and US overall revenue was 32% ahead for the year. This is notwithstanding all pro-sport was shut down from March through July.

CZR's share price in NYC has risen from $60 when it bid last September to $75 last night. Simples! At 272p this is a steal for them.

The current MGM bid is 0.6 of 1 MGM common share for 1 ENT share.

With ENT at c.$31 and the £ at $1.36, then to value ENT at £20, MGM would have to increase it's offer by 50% to 0.9 MGM shares for every ENT share.

Don't hold your breath, but the update on the 21st should be revealing.

JimmyBoy, I suspect the answer to your question is that both companies attract different types of PI's. Next is a beautifully managed plc, with a 3rd-generation family CEO, smarter than a whip. No flash. No Lambo's in the drive. No Instagram bling.

The result is that, after the worst possible year for retailers, Next came into this year with it's SP at the same as 31/12/19 - £70. Up another fiver today because online sales are going gangbusters. This is not a high fashion schmutter business, just a blooming well-run one.

BooHoo is fascinating and completely different. It lives on the edge all the time. So far management has caught the tide for disposable, cheap, tat for the youngsters. Can they continue to call the market and produce exactly what the kids want? SP up from 40p just five years ago, to 350p today. That's the kind of PI they attract. People looking for 5-baggers and more. But look at the SP in the past year. Up and down like the proverbial *****'s-drawers. Into the year at £3. Then £1.50 in March, followed by a peak of £4.15 in June and a collapse to £2.10 in July, when the Leicester sweatshop stories broke. You need very strong nerves to ride this camel, unless you're you're just playing with a few hundred quid, because that totals to £7.50's worth of share price movements - in a £3 stock!! Any PI who deals in five-figure chunks doesn't need the hassle of unexpected scandals, newspaper headlines and bling-bling management. Why not? Because we've seen all this before. The old story is true. The patient tortoise, like Next, usually wins the race. The Flash-Harrys go off like a sky-rocket and then go bang, half-way round the track. Which isn't to say they're not fun to invest in. They're often great fun, but you have to be ready to either get your fingers burnt unexpectedly, or get out fast, after you've doubled your money. That's why the BooHoo board buzzes and we old bores sit here snoozing, while Wolfson gets on quietly plotting his next move. (Like the pun? It was accidental.)