Member Info for gewillia

I have to assume that, with the conclusion of the regular NFL season, MGM has looked at the profitability numbers and realised that this is their last chance to buy Entain/GVC at a remotely reasonable price. It would cost them much more in a year's time, once more people realise what a money-tree US Sports Betting is becoming.

This ties in with Caesar's very opportunistic bid for William Hill and this time we're being offered equity in MGM. Today's price action suggests that 0.6 of 1 MGM share won't be enough to clinch the deal.

Still a very good longterm hold for PI's, looking for large capital gains, imho.

Paisley, In Caesar's offer document they say that any payments by WMH of dividends to their shareholders, will result in CZR reducing their offer of 272p by a similar amount. Which seems rather tight, seeing as they've paid sweet tweet for the company so far, but they want 100% of the profits it makes between their September offer and likely payout in another 9-12 months Schmucks!

Smudger, your comment on debt got me looking at the latest financial statements, which unfortunately, are only for the 3rd Quarter. The problem here is simple. Eldorado plc bought Caesar's for cash, roughly $28 billion, and now has $31 billion of assets. Then it changed the name of the plc to Caesar's, so the latest accounts aren't remotely comparable to past years and the 3rd Q numbers don't go into much detail.

Many takeovers today are highly leveraged, but with interest rates on the floor, buyers can "afford" them because cash-flow covers the low interest payments, and increasing profits (we and they hope) will serve to increase the asset values, so a few years down the line, you can sell off some of the assets to bring the gearing down to a more sensible level.

So, yes, it's a roll of the dice, but these are gambling companies, dammit, and a whole bunch of, presumably sensible & sober, bankers clubbed together to lend Eldorado almost 30 billion bucks, so they must reckon the debt is manageable.

My view on the risk and reward is that someone is possibly going to make a-once-in-a-lifetime-fortune out of the legalisation of sports betting and casino gambling in every state of the USA, over the next 5 to 10 years and maybe more than one company will do that. I'm spread across Entain (GVC), Flutter, Caesars and I'm looking at a rather interesting US ETF, run by Roundhill Investments, under the "BETZ" code, which own stock in some 40 assorted plc's around the world, all which are anything and everything to do with legal gambling; bookies, casinos, betting technology and online management.

If one of these hits the jackpot, then my grandkids will all be able to drink themselves into a permanent state of oblivion when they get to uni. And why not?, he says, smiling.

Welcome aboard with your Christmas light bulb, Ian. Here's hoping we have an entertaining and profitable ride with Caesar's in 2021. I'm curious as to how much they'll be able to sell the UK operations for? A big price will reveal just how much they pinched from under "our" directors noses.

I said a sad, yet poignantly happy, farewell to Willy Hill last week. Happy because several buys starting in August '19 generated an overall 80% profit.

Sad because Caesar's have got a bargain. So . . . yesterday, after some faffing about with one-off paperwork to allow trading in US markets, I bought into Caesars. If Hill's is half the blatant steal that I believe it is, then CZR will be north of $100 within 12 months.

An interesting fact, I've discovered, is that much of the state legislation that governs sports-book (as they call it) gambling, obliges the bookies to confidentially declare their monthly turnover and profitability. The data is then anonymised by the state, when it issues a monthly total, which is published on lots of US websites.

Given that all the bookies give estimates of their overall US market-share in their quarterly/half-yearly updates, this enables a PI to keep an eye on how profitability is growing. This is important as their set-up and initial marketing expenses are currently very high & swallowing most, or all, of the gross profits, which are not being separately disclosed.

These numbers are presently growing like Topsy. Just yesterday, Flutter, in it's FanDuel purchase papers, said that it expects it's US business to become as large as it's combined UK, Australia & Ireland business during 2022. And this is with only 1/3rd of the total population currently able to bet on a mobile, or visit a betting shop. All of the four largest states, California, Texas, Florida & New York are yet to legalise.

So my polite suggestion to those of you who are hanging on for the last penny and no commission in late '21, is to think about putting your cash to work in GVC & FLTR, (or anyone else who's active in the US) now, because, imho, they'll both be standing at rather higher prices in 12 months. Have fun everyone. Sin can be very profitable, if you invest in it.

There's a story in today's Times (Page 51), saying that Starling is in the middle of a fundraising for £200 million. But there's a twist; JP Morgan and Lloyd's Bank are expressing some interest in buying Starling Bank outright.

The article quite strongly hints that Starling's two biggest investors, one Harry McPike (who he? Ed.) and Merian Global Investors could well be interested in selling maybe all/maybe part of their holdings to the would-be buyers.

If all this is correct, and Merian are talking to JPM & Lloyd's, that might explain why they are no hurry to come out with an NAV. Starling is MERI's largest single investment. It accounts for 14% of the portfolio, or £82 million. A sale or all, or part, of that holding could have a significant affect on the NAV.

There's a load of us following Future, JJ. We have been all the way from £3 three years ago.

Annual Results out early December - I think the 5th.

Freedom, as BlahBlah has so precisely set out (Thanks BB), M&G is actually yielding over 9% pa. I got given a few from a Pru holding a year or more ago, and have been buying ever since, because the SP is way too low, imho.

My strategy (ha!) is that both Joe Public and the managers of Income OEIC funds will eventually wake up, start buying and bid the SP much higher, but it will take until a few sets of results are sitting on file, before that happens, which could be '21 or '22.

With the same dividend and a yield of 6%, the SP would then be £3.00. I find that potential gain, with a large holding income, very tempting.

AF, you have the option of cashing out in two financial years - Now and after 6th April 2021 - so giving you £24,600 of exempt gains. Plus if your gains exceed this, you could gift shares to your wife/husband Iif you have one) for them to use their £12,300 exemption in both years, plus, if you have any losing positions, liquidate them and offset any losses against WMH gains.

Don't ever worry about having to pay 20% tax. First it's half the higher rate income tax of 40%. Second, nobody ever went broke trousering a net 80% of the profits from a deal.

Boo Hoo at 277p today. What was that about your "last chance to buy at 310 to 320p to make 50%" ? Looks like Kitty Kitty spilt her milk again. Is this anything to do with their buying stock off dodgy sweatshops in Leicester that fail to pay the minimum wage?

I'd rather invest with Lord Wolfson, thank you very much. Much more upstanding and the family has been at it for three generations. No Lamborghinis either.

Barclays spot on re increased earnings forecast. FLTR now forecasts EBITDA to 31/12/20 will rise from minimum £1,175 million to £1,275 million and max. £1,350 million.

Going gangbusters in the USA; 450,000 new customers for total active 1.8 million. Now claims to have 46% of online sports betting market and 22% of general online gaming, for 29% of total market.

USA now accounts for 12% of total group turnover and has grown 70% year-on year, suggesting that, within five years, US will be well over 25% of total, as more states legalise gambling.

Agreed Taverham, there's no difference between owning 1 share at £100 and 10,000 at 1p. Both will be equally expensive the moment they start dropping in value. 0.85p just seems less of a loss than £85, but, in reality. it ain't. I can see £200 by this time next year, but, but, but, I've often been wrong! Fingers crossed.

Surely the colour of the trade is totally irrelevant? Some institution(s) sold 8 million shares and one punter bought the lot for £22 million. Can it seriously be an idiot intending to vote 'YES' on the 17th, for the pleasure of losing 3p per share? Thus, I presume, it's a hedgie who is reasonably well informed as to how the voting might be going and reckons he has a good chance of making, maybe, 33p a share by voting NO, with the rest of us, by forcing Caesar's to increase their offer, to get us all off their backs.

If there is a PI who has voted YES, I'd like them to agree to tell us here (no insults, I promise you), then we can can look at their total and make a reasonable guess as to how the vote is breaking out amongst us all. If the NO's aren't leading by 20-1, I'll eat my hat (again!)

BTW, the motley fool (agreed not very reliable, but sometimes . . .) has an article pointing out that WMH is valued at just 1/6th of DraftKings (DKNG on Nasdaq), when both companies have almost identical revenue potentials in the US market. There's a mismatch somewhere.

Thank you so much, C0mmonSense. I was just about to chase Halifax and you've saved me the effort. Now for an online vote against the deal. Fingers crossed!

According to Market Watch, FLTR rose a tenner yesterday because Bank of America issued a broker's circular rating it a top buy in Europe, and comparing it to Draft Kings (DKNG). Saying it should be on the same earnings valuation and that it's in the strongest position to increase its' share of the US market. Upped the price target from £127 to £143.

Barclays issued a report stating that FLTR's 3rd Q report (due 11th November) will beat expectations and include a rise in existing guidance for full-year profitability.

What's not to like?

Caesars (CZR) price has been falling from almost $55 last Wednesday to $49 and change today. Which suggests to this old cynic that New York knows they're going to have to put more cash on the table to get their deal over the line.

Well, taking up the "rights" at, roughly 1 new for 8 existing, priced at just £4, is a bargain, imo, even if we have been 10% diluted. I crunched the numbers a few weeks ago and came up with a worst case NAV of £4 a share. Now it's going to be £4 NAV, plus £1 of cash.

Shaftesbury is very professionally run and that shows in the RNS announcing the raise. It will take a few years to get back to ten quid, but assuming that a Covid vaccine is coming within six months and will then take a good 18 months to distribute to a majority of the population, the summer of 2022 is looking a reasonable prospect for a return to a more normal retailing market. Fingers crossed.

Thank you, Saurus. I'll investigate advfn.

Thank you so much, PMoran, for this very useful idea. As soon as Sain gets back to me, I'll suggest it.

BTW, you're clearly a person with a love of language - I can tell that because my daughter, Brunnhilde, has a degree in Underwater Basket Weaving, from the University of Central Grimsby, which I proudly announced to the remaining members of the family, who aren't currently jailed, in last Christmas's 'Boast in the Post'. Thanks again and Have a good day!

I just caught up with your kind message, Sain? Is there anyway we can chat more confidentially without having to post an email address on here? I greatly enjoyed our exchanges over the Intu disaster and now we meet again.

I should fess up that my Dad was a property investor from way back. He steered clear of the stockmarket with the tart observation that it was only the brokers that he saw driving round in Rollers, but that he could see that sin paid particularly well. Ladbrokes went public for the first time around 1966, so I punted in. This time I'm in here, plus GVC & FLTR, on the theory that one of them has to clean up in the US, and if we do get taken out of Hill's on the cheap, I'll buy CZR in New York with the proceeds and hope to get a better ride there.

There has to be some very serious money to be made between now and 2025 as that market becomes established and matures. For me it's like have a chance to buy American distillers and breweries, immediately after Prohibition was lifted. What can possibly go wrong? He says, glancing swiftly skywards for the approaching thunderbolt.

Roughly 8 years ago, I bought this stock for around 3p. The asset was obviously fantastic. The management, some wild Irishman, was incompetent to a Trumpian degree. The management changed, the share price rose and still very little happened. I gave up hope and sold at a loss a year or two later.

Since then management has changed a third time and there's a proposed takeover which requires government approval. The only problem seems to be that no approval is forthcoming and it's been more than a year. In these situations I ignore what's being said and look at what's being done - Or in this case not being done. Meantime the share price falls by 90% - there's a big warning.

The Tanzanian president is an autocrat. Africa is a corrupt continent. Investing history over the past half century reveals African governments that regularly stole assets off foreign investors. What if Tanzania simply wants AEX's asset, because it's as good as it ever was, even if oil & gas prices have fallen?

If I'm right, AEX will run out of cash and the Zubairs will get the message and walk away. Cue enormous froth from disgruntled PI's. Tanzania will take over Ruvuma due to AEX's non-performance and, a few years later, oil & gas will flow.

I believe this is a scenario all prudent investors should be considering, while they can still get out for a ha'penny.