Member Info for gewillia

V. good results for FLTR today. Too good for any chance of MM's running these shares down today.

As for online UK casinos being restricted to £2 a spin, I'm afraid the late Mrs. Mary Whitehouse has been re-incarnated as a noisy bunch of nanny-state do-gooders with a relentless focus on the tiny minority of 'problem gamblers'. If they had their way we'd all be restricted to two bets a year of 50 pence each-way on the Grand National & Derby.

The fact that at least 99% of gamblers are in it for small-time fun is perfectly illustrated by Draft Kings 1/4ly results in the US last week. There, the 2nd biggest online casino & sports betting provider disclosed that their 1.1 million customers lost an average of $80 during the 1/4 ended 30th June - That's the princely average sum of £19 per head per month. Less than a fiver a week. That sure ain't a problem for the vast majority of punters.

It reminds of my poverty-stricken Irish ancestors from Liverpool. The middle-class Victorian ladies endeavoured to civilise them and coined the phrase, "Drink is the curse of the working classes". My great-grandparents and their friends retaliated by responding, "Work is the curse of the drinking classes". Amen to that.

Based on Caesars William Hill results and Draft Kings, both last week, the US sports betting market is booming. DK has tripled it's betting customers in the past year and is currently adding 1 million a month. DK raised it's projected annual turnover for 2021 by 25% from $1 billion minimum to $1.25b minimum. Still loss making, but as the CFO commented, "we expect to invest heavily for 2 to 3 years in every new state-opening. Then in Y4, we expect to start making good profits.

Will MGM make a serious bid? Imho, nah! They're already heavily indebted and the sale of the REIT doesn't close until 1st Q of 2022, so they won't have their $5 billion until then. Besides, I regard their El Cheapo offer as nothing more than cheekily opportunistic. They'd seen William Hills board roll over like a lapdog, when CZR offered senior management long-term contracts, so MGM wondered whether they might get a bargain too. Answer - No!

There is no bargain to be had here, especially when you consider that another NFL season is just starting and the results (hopefully spectacular) will be in by January. Personally, I'm not minded to accept any offer, unless ludicrous, because I bought ENT in 2019, hoping & wanting to see a transformational investment by 2024/25 and I don't want to share the profits.

The way these US businesses market themselves is mind-boggling. DK announced last week that as part of their "partnership" with major league baseball, anyone placing a minimum bet on a particular game will now be able to access a live TV broadcast on their computer, at no charge. Imagine if the Premiership did that with Paddy Power, or Ladbrokes? £5 or £10 to watch United v. City, or Chelsea - Arsenal, and with a chance of getting all your money back, plus a profit.

Caesars have announced their June 30th Q numbers and there's a reasonably good transcript of management's call with analysts on Motley Fool. From our PI's perspective the interesting number was that William Hill US (now rebranded) made a net profit of $100 million in the Q. The CEO said that he expected to invest a further $1 billion on taking online sports gambling nationwide and stealing market share, but that once this expense was over, he anticipated an annual return of between $500 m and $1 billion in profits, which is a phenomenal number. Although the CEO declined to put a time frame on when we can expect this.

No estimate was provided for Hill's market share, tho' in the past, I think it's been 15 to 20%. How does this impact Flutter? Well, FLTR seems to have c. 30% market share, so it's beginning to look like the promise, 2 to 3 years ago, of a transformative expansion into the US, is turning into a reality. Expensive to orchestrate, but massively profitable in the medium term.

BTW Cukkas, I don't pay too much attention to people like Hindenburg. The shorting market is much bigger in the US and professionals like H are always looking to scalp a quick short-term profit using exaggerated scare tactics. It's only when the SP begins a serious collapse and the market, as a whole, loses faith (Like WeWork or Lehmans) that I run for the exit.

Another outfit tried this with one of my holdings, Future, back in June of '19. Made accusations of v. aggressive accounting and brought the SP down from from £12 to £9 for a couple of weeks. Bit unnerving, but the SP today is £35. I'm expecting the same from Fltr.

Hopefully starting with the half-year results on the 10th, next week. Fingers crossed!

Goforit, there were Interesting quarterly results last night from Caesars (including William Hill) in the US. They actually disclosed $100 million of net revenue from internet sports betting (All WH) and forecast net revenue rising to between $500m and $1 billion once the market matures. Though the CEO did decline to estimate a date for this.

Whilst getting established nationwide will be expensive (Caesars estimates another $1 billion of costs, all coming out of net-cash-flow) it's beginning to look as if the potential in the US for transforming the UK bookies is becoming a reality.

Why does the top line, "Share Price Info . . ." consistently show rubbish prices for MNTN?

Today, it says the last trade was $2.03 with the Open, High, and Low also $2.03 - This is drivel (are you reading this LSE?). So far this am (10.15) there've been four trades - all at $2.075 or $2.076.

The intraday graph is also total nonsense, recording a price of $2.03. The closing price for yesterday also shows as $2.03, when actual recorded trades show that was struck at $2.0823. Does someone have an obsession about "2.03"?

The column of numbers to the left of the 3-month graph, is likewise riddled with $2.03 nonsense.

Normally LSE's pages show really good, accurate info'. What is this Schiehallion page so wrong, all over the place?

How can we get this cleaned up? Please? Pretty please? (End of rant from a normally extremely satisfied customer)

Umeed, you say in your 3rd para, at 18.42, that "bond holders cannot push company into bankruptcy". I'm afraid you're 100% dead wrong. Just because the bonds trade on a public market is irrelevant. Each set of bonds, whether or not convertible will have a committee of trustees, representing all the lenders. Should VOD fail either to make an interest payment when due, or a capital repayment on the repayment date, they have 30 days to cure the fault, failing which the trustees can can take whatever legal action they choose.

Furthermore, there's a very nasty little clause, known as a "cross-default clause" to be found in all corporate borrowing contracts. The wording says that even if you're up to speed with the interest payments you owe to me, should you fail to pay another lender after the 30 day grace-period expires, and you're in default with the other other lender, then you also deemed to be in default with me and I can take action against you enforce repayment of your debts to me. Very nasty.

Remember too that Convertible doesn't mean VOD can always repay the loan with shares. The agreement will state a conversion price. Lenders will choose to convert when the conversion price is less than the SP. That way they make their profit. If the SP is less than the conversion price as the repayment date approaches, lenders will want cash on the barrel-head, not shares.

So, if VOD is making Bond interest payments of $2 billion p.a., I'd love to know what the face value is? Based on today's interest rates, I'll guess the total is north of $40 billion. Throw in the bank debt and $15b of EBITDA means that total debts are 3 times ebitda, which is not a small multiple. Good luck.

Lebugue, Whenever I see notes that DB, Berenberg, other others, have raised Future's price target to an unimaginably stratospheric amount, I can't really believe this might happen.

Then a few months go by and Zillah's gang proceed to shoot the lights out, leaving the previously outrageous (to me) forecasts, languishing in the dust.

Trading at £35 right now. Up by a factor of 10 in just three years, since I first invested. I feel very lucky to have come across Questor's tip back then. This is turning into a lifetime top 5 investment, in terms of profitability and a small part of me really can't believe this is happening. I do hope the rest of you are enjoying the ride too. Spectacular is inadequate to describe it.

One of the fascinating facts to have become clear during this Covid epidemic is the ability of many people worldwide to go into denial - Covid doesn't exist. It's a hoax. It's a government conspiracy. Our ability to ignore obvious facts and to deceive ourselves seems to know no bounds.

I came across the Kromek story in some financial rag back in early 2018 when the price was in the low 20's. It's a great story. Worldbeating technology. Company capitalised at diddly-squat. The world is their oyster and visions of 5, 10, even 20-baggers over the next decade floated before my eyes. A small investment was made. It seemed then to have stabilised and management was optimistic that a corner had been turned. I stayed on board for just over a year, by which time I'd read most of the posts from prior years, and decided to get out with a clean nose.

The substance of many of those posts was that Kromek is a company that consistently over-promises and under-delivers. Today, it continues to draw in new optimists, who, like me in 2018, ignore the past. For whatever reason, KMK seems to find it impossible to sign up the big contracts needed to really grow. Is that because it's products aren't up to snuff, or the sales force is poor? I have no idea, but today, on reviewing the results for old times sake, I was reminded of the old saying, "The Trend is Your Friend"., and this is what the chart tells you about the SP:

March 2014 - 70p. June 2015 - 44p. June 2017 - 36p. August 2018 - 31p. July 2019 - 26p. May 2020 - 23p. Today - 16p.

Seven years later there are fewer optimists. Meantime, many genuinely profitable shares have seen their SP's rise by considerable percentages; 3i, Segro, Tritax & Scottish Mortgage, all over 50% since 2018, which is why I moved on from Kromek. Us PI's are possibly all natural optimists, otherwise we wouldn't play the markets, but I fear that KMK is the heartbreaker that is never going to deliver. Just my opinion, of course, but I thought it worthwhile, on a quiet morning, to post an "Amber Alert" for new optimists possibly attracted by the Telegraph write-up.

Great number-crunching, Dire Emblem. I was just about to sit down and do the same exercise, only to discover you'd already done a superb job. Many thanks.

Hi Cukkas, As you say, there's no public news whatsoever to account for the fall from mid-March's £170 to mid-May's £120 and today's £140.

Just background noise in a volatile market, imho. The next news may well be Fox-Bet's exercise in July of it's FanDuel option to increase it's shareholding, over which there is a dispute regarding the exercise price. As silence has reigned over this argument since it was first revealed, I'm guessing both parties are in serious confidential discussions to resolve the matter.

Meantime, I sleep easy as the punters continue to lose some of their money and the publicly available monthly betting turnover from the states with legalised gambling, continues to show that the sports-betting market in the USA is growing like a weed on steroids.

For example, total sports wagering in New Jersey, for the January thru' April period, rose from $86 million in 2020 to $244 million in 2021. A rise of over 180%. FLTR has between 20% and 25% of this market and the profit margin is a rough average of8%.

If you're interested in following developments in all the states, you might begin at www.sportshandle.com. It has lots of good info', updated regularly.

Are all the holders here institutions or corporates? Surely I can't be the first PI? Whatever, I've been watching this IT for a year now and decided to take the plunge today, following the capital raise.

If BG is half as successful with this plc at spotting private disruptors, with lots of promise, over the next five to ten years, as it has been over the past twenty, I expect my grandchildren to have lots of money to squander when they get to Uni, between 2030 and 2040.

Indeed I do, Aquae Sulis, and may I say how nice it is to have a classicist like yourself commenting here. Cicero & Ovid clearly taught you well.

I see the Brits took profits quite heavily this morning, but the Americans have pushed the price back up again, now they're out of bed. Does anyone have a guess at where this might top out, based on these half-year results? I'm nervous to forecast £30+, but then I just wonder . . .

The first quarter figures for the 12 states with legal sports gambling are in. Turnover wagered by punters totalled $916 million. This is bigger than the total amount wagered in all of Calendar 2019. The market effectively quadrupled in 18 months.

Most operators like Flutter expect to be open in another 8 states, covering 40% of the adult population by 31st December.

This sum excludes online and regular casino gambling, which totalled $11.1 billion for Q1-2021. Also a record, despite occupancy of physical premises mostly been capped at 50%, but this is now being relaxed; This week MGM & Caesars got permission to move to 100% in their 18 Las Vegas premises and Caesar's announced that all its LV hotels are booked 100% for weekends through the autumn.

The dispute with Fox, other volatility due to the crazy Kentucky court decision and the departure of the FanDuel CEO is, imho, irrelevant. While the SP will continue to jump up and down, the medium-term trend is strongly upwards toward £200 and FanDuel should IPO later this year. Fingers crossed that Covid is kept under control.

The US sports gambling turnover figures for the quarter ending 31st March are all now in. The total wagered was $916 million. This sum is greater than the total wagered for the whole of calendar 2019.

The market has quadrupled in 18 months, so I couldn't really give a monkey's about day to day volatility or rotations. The medium term direction is up, up, up.

FUTR's share price is up 40% since 1st January and 11% in the last month.

Update expected on the 19th. Why is the SP moving forward so aggressively? All ideas and speculations welcome.

This utter fiasco reminds me of the riddle from a few ago, about an Australian beer:

Q. Why does Castlemaine call it's major brand of ale XXXX?

A. Because they don't know how to spell Ess Aitch Eye Tee.

Which also aptly describes SLA's choice of a new brand name. Methinks this is going to get walked back faster than the late European Super League. Although that has provided a footnote for keen pub quizzers; Name the only manager ever fired by an ESL team? Yes, it's José !! He really is a Special One.

Still a nice trade for you, David. And here we are two weeks later and it's up another 10%. Over £24 for the first time today.

I'm beginning to wonder if Mr. Market is expecting very good results, in which case I remember the time-tested adage of, "Buy on the rumour. Sell on the result."

I posted the link below, before seriously eyeballing the update. It's in the form of 43 "powerpoint presentation" slides. While the level of detail is sometimes mind boggling, I've taken away two major points:

Slide 37: shows how first 3 months cash expense on marketing to new punters and other set-up costs in a new state is at its highest. By the end of the next 12 to 24 months the first punters losses are paying for all the new acquisition costs of more punters, and finally by the end of Year 3, all the punters have repaid all establishment set-up and all marketing costs, market penetration is at its highest and profits are rolling in.

Slide 43: Joint venture profit in 2022 will be in excess of £1 billion. Meaning that Entain will trouser £350+ million. The non-US operations made profits in 2020 of £273m, before Covid costs and £489m in 2019 before betting shop closure and max.£2 bet costs. That averages to £380m p.a. before exceptional costs. Thus, if the US comes in at £350m, it will double the profitability to £730m. And that assumes zero growth in the rest of the worldwide business.

There are 585m issued shares = projected earnings of £1.25 per share, which at today's price of £17 equates to a P/E of just 13.6. Given that more and more states are legalising online betting and the US betting market is growing like Topsy, this plc seems set fair to be a real winner over the next 5 years.

Here's the link to last night's update by BetMGM (Entain's 50-50 US Joint venture). It looks both juicy and very professionally operated:

https://s22.q4cdn.com/513010314/files/doc_presentations/2021/05/BetMGM-Investor-Day-Presentation-2021.04.21-(Posting).pdf

For calendar 2022 they're forecasting a net profit of $1 billion and 20% to 25% market share.

Where is Elliot's formal declaration of a "multi-billion pound shareholding"? So far, Mr. Singer is being more bashful than a fan dancer at the Folies Bergère. Coy hints in the financial press to his pals at the FT is all we have.

GSK is capitalised at £68 billion. There's an obligation to disclose your precise holding once it exceeds 3%, which just happens to be £2.04 billion. Changes usually have to be disclosed within 3 business days. The story hit the comics last Thursday, so that's Day 1.

Now where are we? Friday, Monday, yes, it's Day 3. Where's the announcement, or is Mr. Singer having as much success as he enjoyed in Iraq as Dubya's disastrous sidekick? Surely not another smoke and mirrors attempt to move the market?