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The delivery agreement with the Co-op started in 2019. In August 2020 it was announced that it had been expanded to cover 400 Co-op stores across 128 UK cities. This was barely mentioned in the IPO debacle.

I think the SP is dragging because there are better alternative investments out there that are much better geared to coming out of the other side of the pandemic smelling of roses: including airlines, cruise operators, travel companies generally, hotels, pubs, clubs, distillers, brewers etc. etc. Jes Slaley at Barclays estimates that consumers have saved £200b over the pandemic panic period & they are chomping at the bit to blow it on having a good time.

There is a helter-skelter rush towards green, zero-emissions, low carbon footprint, technology and products. But, it will not happen overnight. The oil majors will doubtless walk a tightrope saying all the right things, prodded along by government interventions, but fossil fuels will be with us for a long time yet & it is in the the super-majors best interests to extend this period as long as possible. Tobacco is a good example of a vilified and marginalised product that is proven to kill people, but it still makes huge profits. The defence of its markets by "Big Tobacco" has been shocking & often extreme, but it has been highly effective. Who knows we may witness a mirror image of this with the defence of fossil fuels.

The race to green is also initially a highly capital intensive exercise, and the oil super-majors generate huge surpluses of capital that may enable them to help dictate the pace behind the scenes. They are also adept at using cartel arrangements to help dictate the type of market they want.

The SP should strengthen towards the Ex-Dividend date of May the 13th, it generally does.

The success of world vaccination programs with increased oil sales, output and price will start to manifest itself, with gathering strength, most probably in QTR 2, with further gathering of momentum into QTR 3.

Q1 delivered $4.1 towards the $65b debt target. Even if this contribution does not increase in Q 2 - on a simple basis a further $4.1b would take RDS to $2.15b left to meet its $65b debt target. Also at this point it is safe to assume that they have been paying off the highest cost debt as a priority & over only two quarters they have $8.2b less debt to service. At worst Shell would hit the debt target approximately 6-weeks in to Q 3, but the rate of paydown on the debt level is also probably gathering momentum as they recover.

On this basis I think RDS will probably hit the debt reduction target with the Q 2 performance announcement, or be within a whisker of it. This will be a big boost for the SP, with additional benefits accruing from the likely higher OP and volumes.

All companies can hit a bad patch. But, Deliveroo ran into a perfect storm: with the IPO a PR and financial disaster, poor timing, cavalier pricing, the share price subsequently hammered in the markets, a lot of shorting e.g. Odey, governance & leadership questions, employment policy concerns, untenable business model worries, industrial action taking place. It is a very long list.

Is the company really as bad as this indicates? Of course not. The reality is that Deliveroo has unwittingly made itself more vulnerable to a predatory takeover in just a few short weeks, particularly with a falsely low share price. A takeover or strategic alliance has become more prominent amongst a range of possibilities, in the short-term, especially with a billion pounds in the bank. Why has Amazon taken a significant strategic stake in Deliveroo? The fact that Amazon restaurants and delivery were failing and closed down, indicates that they are unlikely to be a passive investor in Deliveroo!

Once companies have made progress in unifying fragmented markets, strategic alliances and takeovers, will take place, they always do.

Dead right - I think I am in for the RDS Investor Endurance Trophy. The FT no less, printed the following in this morning's edition:

The 20 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Royal Dutch Shell Plc have a median target of 1,781.97, with a high estimate of 4,698.59 and a low estimate of 819.58. The median estimate represents a 35.22% increase from the last price of 1,317.80.

Goldman Sachs are predicting an Oil Price gusher! J P Morgan has a price target of £20.00p. But, they do not always Deliveroo on their forecasts!

There is a serious disconnect somewhere, but the SP will probably just be waiting for people to realise that peak pandemic panic is behind us & oil demand is set to race ahead as we head in to the late summer/Autumn period. Heading out of the pandemic there are a lot of attractive alternative investment beneficiaries compared to oil. However, the debt target is in sight over the next quarter, the dividend is being increased in line with RDS's policy commitment, if OPEC+ behave themselves in relation to supply increases, the OP will continue heading north - I think everything looks really good albeit at a slower pace than everyone wishes.

This is a really big deal, and still provides a service for less than half of the Waitrose stores nationally.

In the John Lewis Annual Report to 31st January 2021, it states that "Waitrose.com has grown fourfold since February 2020, now taking around 240,000 orders a week, and stands as a £1bn sales business." When the Ocado delivery agreement was ended, the estimate was that this had been responsible for 6% of Waitrose's sales, and Ocado also stated afterwards that Waitrose simply did not have the in-house expertise to deal with the online delivery side of the business. So that it is very likely that there will be more good news on this front over the next year or so.

Plus the similar deal with 100 Sainsbury stores.

Some institutional investors can perhaps ignore a meal delivery company, on the basis of their "ethical view," but they are less able to ignore a specialist delivery logistics company growing exponentially, and with a falsely low SP that represents a brilliant buying opportunity. Shorters have had a field day, but probably lost all of their bets and more this week. Also the wooden-topped investment strategy of the institutional investors demands that they hold a certain level of investments in FTSE 100 companies etc.

£14.15p by close of play Friday.

At least the smell of burning shorts has deflected the barrage of largely clueless comments. Maybe they are reading up on Call Options!

The delivery of meals is an extremely fragmented marketplace, with generally wafer-thin margins, which has been seen & is starting to be exploited by the big players. If these significant players only had to increase restaurant charges, or pay less to their riders to attain profitability, then JustEat, Uber Eats and Deliveroo could simply do this. But it is a shade unrealistic to think that a restaurant charge of 35% + VAT can be increased ad infinitum, or rider-costs can be reduced in tandem with this, until a company becomes profitable. It is obvious that resistance to this approach will be met.

On the 7th August 2020 Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said on a conference call with analysts and investors to discuss the company’s second-quarter results. “We’ve essentially built a second Uber in under three years. Our delivery business alone is now as big as our rides business was when I joined the company in 2017.”

The major players are all in a breakneck race to increase their market-share, because they see this as one of their main routes to profitability. They are chasing comprehensive geographical coverage, which they can further exploit with their advanced logistics & processes, at the same time as unifying the market and driving out competition. Further efficiencies will derive from the qualities, speed and efficiencies of ensuring that their App is the go to choice. The list is almost endless, there are a 1000 routes to profitability not just two!

The results from BP will impact positively on the RDS SP & with a significant run of $60s + for Brent Crude RDS will likely start to show benefits across all metrics. There is a lot of good news to come through: results for Q1 Thursday the 29th April, progress towards the $65 billion debt target (which will probably be hit in the second quarter of 2021), further clarity on the impact of this progress on future dividend policy and when, & a positive SP run up to going Ex-Dividend on the 13th May.

All against a background of the gathering momentum from the increased traction of world vaccination programs, with associated increases in demand for oil, air travel starting to gradually pick up, confidence returning to world markets, floods of capital hot off the printing presses, the economies of China, the US and Europe starting to pick up pace.

Good point - there is massive negativity surrounding Deliveroo at the moment and it is very understandable. But, a serious mis-pricing, arguably the worst in LSE history does not change the very positive fundamentals of a disruptive innovator that is displaying explosive growth across many metrics on an international basis.

Without any doubt investors will be talking about this a decade and more into the future. Personally I find it shocking that Deliveroo employees in the Gig economy, showing loyalty and confidence in Deliveroo by buying preferentially reserved shares, have suffered this harsh introduction to the investment world.

Events of the last few days do not however mean that Will Shu deliberately engineered this situation to damage his company. In fact he has been massively incentivised to repair this funding & PR nightmare really quickly. An appalling IPO does not make it a dog of a company in my estimation. Self-appraised investment gurus are repeatedly stating that Deliveroo has zero value - are they serious?

In the first Quarter of 2021 Deliveroo has posted a 130% jump in turnover. Group orders up 114% year-on-year to 71m. The fourth quarter of 2020 saw order growth of 77% when Deliveroo’s growth in the corresponding first quarter of 2020 was 27%. Gross transaction values (GTV) were up 130% year-on-year to £1.65bn. UK growth came from all regions and the company has strengthened its leadership position in London, with GTV in London growing by over 120% year-on-year.

At the end of Q1 2021, Deliveroo has reached over 60% of the UK population, adding over 6m people to its coverage. New international grocery partners included Carrefour across Europe, Conad in Italy and Giant in Singapore, while in the UK Deliveroo now works with Co-op, Aldi, Waitrose, Morrisons and Sainsbury’s in more than 1,000 sites across the UK. But to some it is a company going nowhere & worth nothing. Really!!!

Will Shu has been very diplomatic about the causes of this catastrophic IPO, but Goldman Sachs were in charge of the listing process, including pricing, alongside JPMorgan. Other banks on the deal include Bank of America, Citigroup, Jefferies and Numis. They received nearly £49m in fees from Deliveroo, but some of this is understandably being clawed back.

Goldman Sachs bought about £75m in Deliveroo shares to prop up trading in the UK food delivery group after investors shunned its market debut (source FT). The purchases by Deliveroo’s underwriters equate to nearly a quarter of the value of shares traded in the London-based group during its first two days as a public company last week, according to Bloomberg data. Add to this 70,000 retail investors, who were sold £50m worth of shares allocated specifically for Deliveroo customers, many of whom may wish to sell & you have a massive overhang of shares being sold at the moment, but it will pass, investors will accept this debacle and move on, look at the fundamentals & the price will start to

There is massive negativity surrounding Deliveroo at the moment and it is very understandable. But, a serious mis-pricing, arguably the worst in LSE history does not change the very positive fundamentals of a disruptive innovator that is displaying explosive growth across many metrics on an international basis.

Without any doubt investors will be talking about this a decade and more into the future. Personally I find it shocking that Deliveroo employees in the Gig economy, showing loyalty and confidence in Deliveroo by buying preferentially reserved shares, have suffered this harsh introduction to the investment world.

Events of the last few days do not however mean that Will Shu deliberately engineered this situation to damage his company. In fact he has been massively incentivised to repair this funding & PR nightmare really quickly. An appalling IPO does not make it a dog of a company in my estimation. Self-appraised investment gurus are repeatedly stating that Deliveroo has zero value - are they serious?

In the first Quarter of 2021 Deliveroo has posted a 130% jump in turnover. Group orders up 114% year-on-year to 71m. The fourth quarter of 2020 saw order growth of 77% when Deliveroo’s growth in the corresponding first quarter of 2020 was 27%. Gross transaction values (GTV) were up 130% year-on-year to £1.65bn. UK growth came from all regions and the company has strengthened its leadership position in London, with GTV in London growing by over 120% year-on-year.
At the end of Q1 2021, Deliveroo has reached over 60% of the UK population, adding over 6m people to its coverage. New international grocery partners included Carrefour across Europe, Conad in Italy and Giant in Singapore, while in the UK Deliveroo now works with Co-op, Aldi, Waitrose, Morrisons and Sainsbury’s in more than 1,000 sites across the UK. But to some it is a company going nowhere & worth nothing. Really!!!

Will Shu has been very diplomatic about the causes of this catastrophic IPO, but Goldman Sachs were in charge of the listing process, including pricing, alongside JPMorgan. Other banks on the deal include Bank of America, Citigroup, Jefferies and Numis. They received nearly £49m in fees from Deliveroo, but some of this is understandably being clawed back.

Goldman Sachs bought about £75m in Deliveroo shares to prop up trading in the UK food delivery group after investors shunned its market debut (source FT). The purchases by Deliveroo’s underwriters equate to nearly a quarter of the value of shares traded in the London-based group during its first two days as a public company last week, according to Bloomberg data. Add to this 70,000 retail investors, who were sold £50m worth of shares allocated specifically for Deliveroo customers, many of whom may wish to sell & you have a massive overhang of shares being sold at the moment, but it will pass, investors will accept this debacle and move on, look at the fundamentals & the price will start to travel North