The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
The market now have all the facts. I hope they factored in Scally in the last drop. It often surprised me in the past how the share price of companies can fall on good news but rise on seemingly bad. The market likes to know where it stands. Now it does.
Thanks Timber,
Yes, I agree. But for me it's a big step I am taking, and I just want to be sure. I suppose it's part of my research. I believe the fundamentals are great here. I just hope I can get my pension in before it starts to rise, and that I'm not missing something.
Years ago I invested a relatively large amount of money in Xcite energy. Let's just say it's the reason I avoided AIM stocks for the next 10 years, until GGP. I just remember seeing the share price fall from around 1.30 to nothing. Everybody was saying the same things about XEL as they were about GGP. The only difference with GGP is, we have a joint venture with Newcrest, who wants the gold out of the ground ASAP. XEL had the resource - heavy oil and loads of it - but no-one stepped forward to do a joint venture with them, so the OIL might as well have been on the moon. I suppose I bought into the hype of the MRE, and then the downward trend of the Lassonde curve took over - even though it was oil, not gold, but I do see similarities.
I hope I've learned my lesson of when not to invest in a company from XEL. That's why I'm investing in GGP. I hope this makes sense.
Thanks and GLA
Hi there,
Before I write this, I'd like to make my position clear. After doing my research I have decided to invest, relatively speaking, a lot of money in GGP. I already own about 100,000 shares, and now I am thinking of investing one of my smaller pensions into the company - far more than 100,000 shares. That said I will be very happy if the share price falls over the next two weeks, and then for it to rocket after that. That's me being honest. I just want to get the pension in at a decent price for me.
If I could invest my pension today, I would, but... what do people think of the coming general meeting on the 22nd of April? Looking at the RNS it just looks like they want to have the option to allocate shares in the future, perhaps before the end of 2021, but only if needed. Could this be holding the share price back a little - the uncertainty here - or is it really nothing to worry about?
It would just be my luck to have my pension in by the 21st, invest it, and then for the share price to head south after the meeting. In saying that, perhaps it's a done deal, and it's already been factored into the share price? Not sure. It would be good to hear what people think on the matter.
Thanks.
Thanks, Guys :) The money won’t be in my account for a week. I’ll think carefully about it. It’s just one of my pensions, that has built up over the years. 20 years left before I retire, so I thought I could take a risk with it :)
Thanks :)
Hi there,
Thanks to everyone who helped me with my last pension question :) I have now started the process to move my pension to a Hargreaves Lansdown. Just a quick question regarding transfer rules for those who have already done this. I read that you are financially obligated to talk to a financial consultant when you do a transfer of over 30000. Is this the case, or are we free to simply invest everything the minute it’s in our accounts? I bet I bloody miss the boat here!!
GLA - especially me right now!! Lol
I'm glad that worked out for you :)
I'm not too concerned about missing the boat here. I can't believe I am saying this, but I'm happy if the share price goes down in the short term. I've invested a lot, but I have an end game, and that's to retire early :) In saying that, the share price could start to go up anytime. Hmmmm.
Thanks for the advice :)
That's it!! I'm moving one of my pensions to GGP. I don't want to hog this board with pension chat, but I'm currently with Standard Life. Would anybody recommend Hargreaves and Lansdown.? Would they be a good option? Has anyone done it, and was it quick? Seriously want to get in at these prices :) As I said, I don't want to start a chat about pensions, but it is kinda linked to GGP :)
Yes, I agree, as has been mentioned by the likes of Bamps. I just think we'll still play the curve out, only quicker, and hopefully we're near the bottom. But when this starts to rise properly, going by past data, it won't stop for a very long time.
Hi there,
It’s the weekend, so I thought I’d indulge myself with some musings on the Lassonde curve, and why I still think it will play it out here for Haveiron. Of course everything changes with another discovery.
OK. Some background to my thoughts. The only thing I might have to offer to this board is my experience with I.T. I’m a software developer by trade – currently managing projects in a financial institution. In my time I’ve worked on a couple of Machine Learning projects.
OK back to GGP.
I think most of the market today is run by machine learning algorithms. I don’t think there’s one or two people sitting around making decisions about Greatland Gold; I think the majority of it is down to programs following patterns.
Regarding the Lassonde Curve. One or two venerable people believe that GGP has broken the mold here, but I’m going to put forward a theory which might mean that we haven’t - even though we have.
Computers don’t think like us – at least not yet. They do what they are told, even when they come under the banner of machine learning, they still need to learn. I’ll give you an example. If you have a person that is employed to watch a 24 hour camera stream to spot anything out of the ordinary, it’s quite a straightforward task for them to carry out. When someone suspicious appears on the screen, a human can see that. But what happens if you replace that observer with a program. They don’t know what a person is – until they’re told. They don’t know what a fox is – until they’re told. In short, the machine learns, so that eventually it can judge what is an intruder and what is not.
If we have thrown away the mold here, then there is no precedent for the machines to determine what to do next. All they can do is learn from this data going forward, but in the meantime it will try use what it knows to judge its next move. So what does it know? Well, one piece of past data is how exploration companies behave when they reach certain milestones. For example, what happens to most minnows when they finally get their initial MRE – they tank, almost to where they started. When does this stop happening – when the feasibility study is completed, the MRE goes from a guesstimate to proven, and production begins.
This is just one set of data that the machines will use – I’m sure that there are many sets of different data that the algorithms will churn to determine the direction. What I’m trying to say is, what else does the market have to base the share direction on other than past experience. We’re not earning any money; we haven’t secured the final loan to get to production, no matter how good the odds of us getting it, so right now the computer says – no. Sure, other factors play a role: the expected gold price, etc, but again it’s all data influencing the algorithms. I might be completely wrong, and the markets ARE controlled by a few nefarious brokers, but in this day and age, I’d be surprised.
How do I end this: I'
Despite other people’s opinion, which I respect, I firmly believe we will follow the Lassonde curve, so I am not worried in the slightest - IMHO. The market algorithms are simply painting by numbers here. DYOR. I have and I am happy with my long term investment. Enjoy the rollercoaster :)
Yes, hopefully we are in the orphan phase. The article says a lot of ventures still fail at this point due to financing, but we know that that is sorted for us for now, At least I believe that’s the case.
Just to quote from the article:
‘Greenfield vs Brownfield
Now that we've completed our discussion of the mining cycle, it's time to clear up some loose ends. The above sections contained a key, unsaid assumption -that the mine in question is being built completely from scratch. This is called a "greenfield operation", which basically means that no mining operations of any kind had been conducted on the property before.
There is a second option called a "brownfield operation". A brownfield operation refers to projects that are located near or adjacent to an operating mine (or a mine that formerly was in production). As geologists are able to use existing data, the risk in brownfield exploration is considerably lower than in greenfield exploration. Additionally, because the facilities for mining and processing the ore have often already been built and paid for, the initial capital expenditure necessary restart production is often far lower at a brownfield project’
Looking good :)
Hi Guys,
I’m asking myself a question, a question we are all probably asking: why are we back at the last broker note of 22p.
Apologies if this has already been posted, but it’s a link outlining the life cycle of an explorer, transitioning to a miner:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3389945-crash-course-how-a-mine-is-made
The whole process usually takes 10 years, but as we know this is going to be a lot quicker due to Newcrest’s drive to production. In saying that, why would the overall graph not look the same, even if the timeline is sped up? What else do the markets have to go on, if not past experience? Now, if Scally had been an instant hit, the dynamics would have changed, but we are just at the beginning of the story there. In saying that, I still don’t understand why people don’t get how excited Greatland are about the Scally results. They are excited!! I just read the latest fool article, and still not a whiff of this excitement mentioned- angry emoji!!
OK, back to the article. Interestingly, up until the initial MRE, there is a huge rise, and then we enter the orphan period. I think this has been mentioned many times before, but as investors I don’t think it’s a terrible thing to remind us of. Looking at this article, the next major milestone is the feasibility phase, which I believe is towards the end of this year? So, at some point, we should begin to rise again to a point much higher than our last high.
In short, the share price can’t just be arbitrary. I believe in the science, and even if this joint venture does change the dynamics somewhat, all the market really has in the end is past ventures to base their share price journey on. So, we are on a rollercoaster ride, and the current drop is terrifying, but I believe we will rise again. As such, I am very happy with my investment.
Hope this helps - AIMHO