Member Info for Gerry65

John pwh - to buy sell or stick for the div really depends on your personal circumstances and perhaps your buy in price.

The companies website gives you a very good breakdown of the spread in the portfolio, in UK commercial, UK retail, UK hotels and europe., With occupancy rates income, tenancy lengths to breaks.

If you are thoughtful around retail click on each shopping complex and it will give you a breakdown of each of the retailers on the books.

I personally like the entry into London serviced office space.

The share has been a bit range bound but it's paying a very good div, so perhaps a strong income play in a diversified portfolio. I am holding onto my shares.

saorse - how much do you think gf would need to raise from pi's to buy out dor.

unlikely imo. hopefully his alba shopping list is complete at present. he now needs to prove up existing projects, to create opportunities for increased shareholder value. these small investment companies can regrettably only go so far when raising funds from generous pi's.

focus on what he has rather than raising more funds with more dilution for even more assets.

dsfat - agreed alba raising £50m is unrealisitic.

read with interest your debates over on jay with albinio 74 & daramuda - what is your take on their views ?

wilk 1 - thx that's the way i see it, gain value from one or two of the projects, then sell them off to provide some proportion of the funding towards where gf decides to focus.

no way alba p's could possibly stump up enough cash to progress them all

dsfat - what are your cpaex projections for tbs ?

ah degsy - mr king ramper on many bb's. perhaps you could address my post to scully at 08.47.

scully - please accept my apology for spelling mistakes on my previous post, trying to type on my phone, not my pc today.

scully - re alba mcap, our brief chat last night, i have one or two thoughts for your consideratio.

at the outset let me say i am in ukog at an average of 1.20, and hope all weald players do very well.

looking at the alba mcap and your concern that it is under valued maybe you could give a considered reply to the following pints.
- a comparison to jay - which is a number of years ahead of alba, have you read through all jay rns to understand how much money jay has raised from pi's to get to where it is? the most recent placing in feb 2017 was for£17m that is roughly 150% of alba's total mcap on its balance sheet.how much capex would you anticipate alba wold need to raise from pi's to get to a similar position.

the weald - whilst alba has a decent stake in hh - ukog has a series of licences to develop. gf has confirmed alba is funded through the ewt, has confirmed by oga approval. where are the funds fir the ongoing plans to take hh through to production in 2019? that includes hh-2 & hh -z1. how much capex will be needed by alba to continue on the hh bus ?

ukog has raised £12.5m to cover excap for the next 18 months, including getting hh to commercial production. surely you are not expecting ukog pi's to give alba pi's a free carry on this asset are you ? alba will need to contribute, so expect a placing, or a sale of part or all the asset to fund 2019 drilling costs.

at the moment ukog had cash on account of over £12.5m -equal to alba's total mcap.

is it your understanding that ukog have first dibs on the first £2m of oil revenues from hhdl, following the inter company loan?

welsh gold mine - what is your apex calculation here to get any revenues and what is your timeframe here ?

a similar question to above for ireland asset ?

gf in last nights video chat was questioned towards the end of the interview, as to how alba with a mcap of circa £12m was going to fund all these potential assets. do you recall his answer ? he indicated that alba would review its options over the next few months, then decide where it will p,ace its focus, that to me suggests some projects will need to be parked for the medium term. unless you believe gf s intending to finance all capex on all projects at the same time ?

as i said earlier i hope all weald players do well.

gla

Scully - let's wait and see.

Don't get me wrong today's RNS was excellent for all HH plays.

Big bear - another consideration for you. Ukog loaded up with £12.5m before the flow tests to carry through ongoing costs.

Alba had two equity raises this year. The first to bolster up the cash balance - see my previous posts on this BB. The second to cover costs of its Welsh, Greenland and weald plays. ( A mere £800k ).

Taking the percentage ownershipp of HHDL in comparison to ukog, that would suggest to me alba will need to raise circa £4m - just to stand in line with ukog in the weald for ongoing costs.

This company has assets but it's also has a very small capital base.and is too diversified imo.

Jiff - doubt any major partner is lined up. Surely a major partner would would a major slice of the project. Very unlikely i suspect.

Hi Transan - just looked at your posting history, on the 15th May 2015, when the sp stood at circa 1.15, your opinion was that it was going nowhere !

two and a bit years later the sp is over double that figure and there are the lovely divs to pick up each quarter.

I accept i have been very lucky here picking up these for a song in 2016 and three months later recouping my outlay, by selling circa 58% of my holding.Retaining the remaining 42% on a free carry.

The boardroom discontent, has increased Stobart's profile in the general public, perhaps not for the best reasons. In the meantime the company gets on with business, the staff are working hard together the middle and top managers, focusing on the job in hand.

Forgive me for raising your previous prediction on this one.

gla.

Constantly - i have bought here on the dips over the last 18 months, the div is in my Halifax share dealing ISA, today, which is very welcomed.

I see the sp rising over coming months, there will like as not be fluctuations, i won't worry about "world - go - round" - he or she is a total fruit loop IMO - rarely a positive post on any share, with a particular dislike for anything retail - that one. Pretty much discounted on all bb;'s.

Cperkin - i have been reading posts over on AEX , many agree with you that AEX sold out a tad early.

I also see the variance in the mcaps of the two co's.

As i see it if the deal goes through, AEX have secured the carry through, perhaps at a lower value than many over there feel is reasonable, hence the fail in the AEX sp.

Their bod must have looked at all the options, ( maybe only hobson's choice - i don't know ), before accepting what was on offer.

It's very challenging for these small investment co's, they take on projects with limited capital ( usually with only Pi support ), and as they reach the stage where proving up the project towards potential commercial delivery, the costs prove so challenging that they have to sell out or farm out, which may not always please all pi's.

As you say it will be interesting to see how Solo react. The figure of £35m in future potential costs, will most likely push Solo towards a farm out IMO.

As you say interesting times

Returning to the prospects of conventional bank finance - i genuinely feel the "major bank" will indicate that the project is still in too early a phase for this, and is not completely de - risked.

Solo is a small investment company, with a mcap of circa £10m , its not an explorer, or a drilling expert, it merely holds a 25% stake without the financial base to fund the required £35m, as per the AEX rns.

So it will probably be a farm out of a % of sole's stake, i may be wrong, of course. Time will tell.

As it looks to follow a policy of monetisation of assets, hopefully it can secure a decent deal here to reward LTH's for their patience, and support.

It looks like those paying 2.8355 for their shares this morning may have over paid ,in comparison tothe present ask price this afternoon, though much can and will change. I see the spread has eased down to below 10 % as i type.

Share predicting is a funny old game.

Three posters looking at this one and predicting falls, one back into the 6.00's - yet a week later its back over 8.00, for the moment.

Less than a month to wait for the div.

That's true CrustyPete, I see people were buying this morning at 2.8355.

The bid is being quoted at 2.5 - possibly a little higher maybe.

I'm off to the gym - will look in later to see how those trades look this afternoon.

GLA

Not sure if PI sentiment today following the rns is on the back for Ritson stepping down, or the statement that he is chatting with a major bank.

I would suspect that its too early for Solo to secure any commercial financing, i would guess that most major banks would be of the view that, the project needs further development, before any commitment could be made on standard financing. I may be wrong - IMO.

Its more likely that a farm out of a % of its 25% interest is the way forward.

Too early to make a judgement here, those buying this morning when there is a 16% spread between the bid and ask are very brave IMO, still you got to be in it to win it.

Perhaps as now both solo and aex aex's shares are down now the farm out news has been fully digested by the market, it demonstrates that some had an over inflated valuation on the project, and on related share prices. Not factoring in the costs required to get to the promised land, and how the project could practically or realistically be funded.

The reality is that aex with the major % ownership for the project, took the deal as possibly the best deal for them - all options considered.

Ritson now needs to set out his plan.