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Good read, its an interesting point about whether lithium is classed as a commodity (interchangeable) or a specialty (non-interchangeable) in terms of how it is treated in the industria cycle.
It is also true that new investment is more likely at low prices (no money to be made when a market is at its peak from a new infrastructure stand point). I would like to see 25% on BA`s model, $2500 would be a nice start for production in late 2024.
Just confirming what we already knew from yesterday Hainan confirmation of share holding 14.72% (2,937,801,971 shares) now officially our largest shareholder.
Well done all.
It largely depends on the level of FOMO as to where the sp ends up this week. Agree with Lav that sp will open down but that should be bought through this morning and by 10am we can start to judge how high it will finish. The one spanner in this is the guaranteeing of the 100M until full license transfer. Essentially the money is ours but with a string attached, this will be an important distinction for larger funding groups. Once this hurdle with paperwork is overcome then we should expect to see institutional ownership increasing as more PI`s sell out. Hopefully this will increase to 50%+ of overall shares during 2024 and before production.
Should be an exciting day regardless, it seems like an age since the start of the year announcement. Happy to be starting the next leg of the journey to phase 1 production.
I recall part of the reason for the route that was chosen, being to improve the local transport network. Does anyone have details on how its being topped (hardcore vs tarmac)? RN9 is the only route currently tarmaced locally so it would make sense to also tarmac our connecting road however this would increase build time by about 3 weeks looking at the distance involved. Has there been any mention of this by the company as I can't find a specific mention?
The last census carried out in 09 shows the Bougouni commune total population at cerca 59,000.
https://www.citypopulation.de/en/mali/admin/32__bougouni/
At best guess using avg population growth I would say it's 70,000 today, so a project that employs 600-700 people during construction from a labour pool of cerca 30,000 working age adults is a huge deal locally. This could mean 2-2.3% of the communes population working directly on the project and then further local economic growth as a result.
I'm not surprised the local government (even a military one) wishes to publicise the project now, this is they type of thing that come an election can be pointed to when asked what you have done for locals.
I will be interested to see what the amount of share churns is if the share reaches new highs. E.g for people who bought in the .8`s six months ago, will they sell or hold.
As well as the share price expectations of new investors buying in between now and the completion of construction phase 1. Will we start to see more LTH joining rather than people investing and then being disappointed that the shares don`t 10x within a week.
Https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/14477383/officers
Shows Weaver Financial Limited as the CS for the company.
As others have say its not big news but it is another brick in the wall. I would think it would be prudent to have them already set up in house when the transfer of funds does complete.
Kodal will do well in the medium term but I wouldn't want to guess at the price for at least another 3 years.
If production starts in 2024 (12 month mine build without delays) then we have a real shot at developing over the following 10 years into a large company potentially a FTSE250.
In context the DMS plant alone (phase 1 development) should produce 130,000 Tpa, as it stands today globally the largest lithium mine in the world; Albemarle`s Greenbushes operation in AU produces 156,000 Tpa. If we could produce at that quantity we would be the 3rd largest producer globally(by mine not volume). Now if all of that were to happen what price could we reach......?
I am also interested in these "potential opportunities" that BA and the team are looking into.
I would have thought it was the other way round. That KOD using funds received last month would pay for the road improvements as the money received last month could form part of the repayment for development works prior to the transfer?
KMUK doesn't become project lead until financing. Upon financing KOD will be reimbursed for any costs to develop up to that point as stated in the finiancing agreement.
Genuine question here, I was unaware that our board was actively modded has this always been the case or is it a recent change? Whilst I'm glad to see this is the case, I wanted to confirm that my last post was in relation to the removed post and not about KOD.
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=KOD&share=Kodal-Minerals&thread=F0C09ACD-2C74-4E42-B345-FD000A7CE576&reply=true question
I spy with my little eye.........
A ponzi scheme.
No work? Check
No Risk? Check
Guaranteed Returns? Check
I hope anyone actually thinking of using a site like this or similar thinks again. The only thing sites like this guarantee is for you to lose your money.
Minimum is the least to be expected. I am never a fan of interpretative law/code, my guess in this case is that it is worded this way to allow the government flexibility/discretion towards individual applications. A key driver of this change is the fact that Mali feels it has not had a fair share from the profit of resources mined from their land.
For example companies which have gained significantly in the past may find their future license applications require a higher percentage share to the government compared to say a local Maliaian startup, or a company with good standing within the Ministry of Mines or particular individuals with influence at the top of the government. In such a way precieved losses in the past could be balance with gains in the future.
It is worth noting that this change applies to gold and not lithium. So would affect Kodal in the future if we wanted to mine it. I am confident our BOD will keep us in good standing in Mali and so would hope we could expect the minimum to apply to us.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/mali-president-signs-new-mining-code-bid-raise-govt-stake-2023-08-29/#:~:text=BAMAKO%2C%20Aug%2029%20(Reuters),major%20shortfall%20in%20production%20revenues.
Hi Accionista,
Yes indeed Hainan already owns 51% in principle of KMUK however until funding is completed they have not paid the cerca US$ 94M for the 5100 shares of the company. As per the funding package details from the start of this year. I simply don't feel that KMUK whilst existing on paper in its current form has any function presently beyond allowing the overall deal to complete. After completion it is of course a vital piece of the overall function as developer for the project moving forward.
You make a very good point with the license(s) and the different designations. I cannot really argue against your point there.
You could well be correct that the 3 licenses/permits excluding Foulaboula could simply be added and is what I suspect as well. Those licenses by virtue of the 2020 area changes have no JORC and I would argue that on further exploration if/when other lithium is proven, their value would increase. I would hope that both JV partners would benefit in this scenario.
Also just wanted to add I appreciate the work relating to BOD options I hadn't had a proper look at their impact when issued.
If this deal can get over the finish line it really is a great one for Kodal. I think that in the future the other 3 could also be sold to KMUK as they are all referenced as part of the overall project. Which could mean a couple of 100M extra?
Also (just thinking out loud) with Leo`s current troubles could we see the sale at Bougouni West fall through. If so thats more area to explore/resource upgrades in later years. Its expensive for KOD now but in the years to come it could prove much more valuable to us than £2M and royalties.
Hi all,
I thought I would try to quickly collate all the factual information available as there seems to be some confusion on what is going where and to who. Information provided is taken from the RNS dated 06 Sep 2023 "Final Results and Notice of AGM".
"Kodal's most advanced asset, the Bougouni Lithium Project, is located in southern Mali. Kodal was granted the Foulaboula Permis d'Exploitation number No2021-0774/PM-RM ("Mining Licence") in November 2021. This covered the proposed open-pit mining and processing operation at Bougouni, making the Project fully permitted for development and construction."
"As detailed above, Kodal announced the financing package with the Hainan Group on 19 January 2023. At completion of the financing package, the Hainan Group will acquire a 51% shareholding in Kodal's newly incorporated UK subsidiary, Kodal Mining UK Limited ("KMUK"), the company formed to be the developer of the Bougouni Lithium mine through its 100% owned Malian subsidiary mining company Les Mines de Lithium de Bougouni ("LMLB").
On completion of the financing package with the Hainan Group, Kodal will have economic interest of 49% of the Foulaboula mining licence prior to Mali State's participation."
Notes; that the current funding package relates to the license No2021-0774/PM-RM at Foulaboula.
There are 3 other licenses encompassed by the "Bougouni Lithium Project"; Dogobala, Sogola Nord and Fariédélé and whilst there is a note next to each indicating that "Licence area modified during 2020 to account for the future Foulaboula Mining Licence. " this happened before any agreement with Hainan (Feb 2023) and would imply that these licenses at present are not included in the current agreement.
In summary the agreement being actioned would result in:
Hainan Mining Co. Limited would purchase US$17.5M share purchase (shares created) at a price of UK 0.5p this would result in Hainan becoming the largest shareholder with approximately 15% of shares in issue.
US$100M would be given to KMUK a subsidiary of Kodal, (approx US$65M formine construction and US$35M for exploration/resource expansion at the project. Conditionally KOD would own 49% of shares and Hainan 51% - this would change as the Mali government is also entitled to a percentage both initially, and a right to purchase more at market rate within 2 years of the mine commencing operation.
LMLB is a subsidiary of KMUK which owns 100% of it. LMLB is required to hold the relevant license No2021-0774/PM-RM at Foulaboula under Mali law once the site becomes actively mined. LMLB is registered in Mali whereas KMUK is registered in the UK.
Looks like one international chinese company moving aside for another larger chinese holder to take their seat at the table.
We all have a price. I certainly do but I won't tempt fate and tell, that's a secret for me to keep.
All I would say is KOD`s valuation will increase as funding is secured and again when a mine is producing. All I would say is when the SP reaches your target be that 1p or £1 sell the amount you have decided upon. I won't sell everything when I reach my target because I believe KOD could be a special case given enough time.
Yes but my guess is it wont be announced until the AGM, i think there may be information to speculate on but nothing concrete until the meeting.
My prediction for the funding sign-off announcement is 29 September at 11am (+or- 5 hours).
We all know Bernard is a patient man perhaps too patient, but then the man studies rocks. My guess above is based on the fact that with all the twoing and frowing over the next few weeks. As well as the prep-work in the run up to a companies AGM, he must be tempted to add a real buzz to the meeting by announcing it in person. Some information would by that point gotten out ,site visit pictures etc. I'm sure we would all enjoy a nice tweet from Kodal with a picture or BA, Hainan and the MoM all together in the same room and smiling. It would create some genuine excitement in the leading up.
Please share your theories, its all only a bit of fun and helps pass the time.
Hi Sash just wanted to say that your final point on gov share for KOD. The additional 10% to give the government a total of 20% is an option they have for 2 years after the mine starts producing. It also wont be free it would have to be bought at market rate and is at their discretion so they may choose not to buy any extra at all.
As far as trying to place a value on future Mcap, I use a forward PE of 5 and try to factor in the chance (as stated by BA previously) that he would like to play dividends in the future. But it is tough to get a precise figure as a lot depends on the future lithium price.