focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Very happy with this update.
After first read, what stands out to me is clearly David Teng has been going at it in China, making sure that the equipment manufactures get items to us asap (2 month faster than usual).
Mining contractors all lined up and on site before end of the month.
Production can be scaled to 1.2MT of material through-put per annum based on ordered design.
Phase 2 Flotation plant expected to be under construction/complete within the next 2 years.
Currently all contracts and build costs are within expected ranges meaning we wont need more than 65M already set aside.
Another blue day and a 7am RNS?
All sorted for the next 3 years Bridgedogg.
"Offtake for first 3 years of Stage 1 production (DMS only) - 80% Suay Chin International (ROFR) & 20% Fosun International"
https://kodalminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Kodal-Investor-Presentation-FINAL-February-2024.pdf
Page 20 covers the offtake agreement.
Looks like LLL is getting closer to resolving its tax and export issues.
LLL planned production Q3 2024
KOD planned production Q4 2024
Yes Merc i agree, now is a reasonable point to expect timelines on the actual construction process. Personally I have all fingers and toes crossed for 50MT+ total resource announcement in June.
Hi Laverda, yes completely agree. It was one of those sort of statements that catches the eye and caused me to say hand on a minute.
On the subject of Leo and what seems to have gone on with compliance or lack thereof. I think there is a chance, that as the lithium mining sector in Mali is just getting started the Mali government may look to make an example. The Malians very clearly want to be seen as a place to do business and that they are no longer beholden to France, and are will and able to clean house.
If that happened maybe Gangfeng might look to their next door neighbours for some collaboration to help out. It just so happens that a fellow Chinese company has moved in recently and are working closely with a reputable British company who are passionate about compliance and have an established team with connections in country.
Who knows?
Was reading a few articles this morning and came across this,
"Lithium projects in Mali attracted investment from Chinese firms Jiangxi, Ganfeng and Hainan Mining (through the acquisition of Kodal Minerals) while Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt commissioned a lithium processing plant in Zimbabwe." - https://www.mining.com/chart-chinas-belt-and-road-mining-investment-hits-record/
I'm assuming this is just the authors short hand to explain the Kodal/Hainan relationship and not a freudian slip? Who knows but maybe a takeover by Hainan is a bigger possibility pre production than I had thought.
As Bfd said its all in the february 2024 presentation.
https://kodalminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Kodal-Investor-Presentation-FINAL-February-2024.pdf
Timelines are shown on page 8.
All applicable licenses and permits are already held by kodal (see page 12). We are waiting on the Ministry of mines in Mali to transfer a license to our Mali based company LMLB. This does not prevent Kodal from doing anything in the meantime.
Happy to see the overall Li market beginning to show signs of stabilizing.
KOD is progressing and LTH`s have as good a chance here as anywhere else of making a tidy profit. I hope everyone here now is still here in another year. Debating facts is far better than debating speculation.
From page 6
"Stage 1: Low capex, low AISC, highly profitable
Lithium production from Dec 2024-28 - even at
lower Lithium price
• Stage 1 (DMS) - c.125ktpa Li2O
• Stage 2 (Flotation) – c.230ktpa Li2O
100% offtake secured"
The previous agreement with Suay was 80% on anything from production +3 years with a right of first refusal if i remember correctly. Stage 2 production would probably be after this. So im reading page 6 as Suay/Hainan have now agreed with Kod all future off take, not just stage 1?
If this interpretation is correct then its very happy days.
Previously BA has stated several times that KOD`s primary focus is the mine development to production. Whilst it would be very nice for updates and progress on gold, I would be disappointed if progress on the first comes at the cost of progress on the second.
I do have trust in the company that the money will be spent in the way they have said. If no major works are carried out this year then the cash will still be available for next year. KOD holds the cash Hainan paid for their share percentage. KMUK holds the money for the mine development.
I would not mind the SP staying in the .3-.4 range all the way up to the production RNS. Occasionally the market misses an opportunity. If that happens with KOD it means more chances for everyone here to make more over the long run.
@Laverda Thank you for the info I did read the q&a`s but had forgotten it was talked about.
@Bfd No they can sell there shares as freely as we can, I don`t see why they would though. I don`t read that they are strapped for cash nor looking to de-invest from the project. They have a nice position, they can buy the product at market prices and then receive some of the money through SP (on-paper) increases/dividends etc from their holding in KOD as the revenue filters back to us and Hainan. Meaning a further reduction in cost per ton for them in the end.
not sure why source was blanked out.
research - tree . com
https://*********************/newsfeed/article/kodal-minerals-plc-final-results-notice-of-agm-2014203
"off-take arrangements
kodal agreed a binding term sheet with suay chin in march 2017 which contemplates that the parties will negotiate an extended off-take agreement for between 80% and 100% of the spodumene product produced at bougouni for a period of three years. the off-take term sheet sets out certain agreed off-take principles that are to be included in the off-take agreement including the parties agreeing to buy and sell the contract quantity as well as the formal agreement including a right to match any third party off-take terms agreed for a period of three years following the expiry of the formal agreement. whilst a formal agreement has not been entered into, suay chin retains the first right of refusal for a period of three years from first production of product from bougouni whereby kodal may not enter into any agreement with a third party to sell more than 20% of future production from bougouni without having first offered to sell the production to suay chin on the terms offered by the third party.
as part of the financing package announced on 19 january 2023, the company has agreed a 12-month exclusivity period during which kodal and the hainan group will seek to negotiate an off-take agreement over that portion of spodumene production from bougouni which kmuk is able to sell without breaching its prior agreement with suay chin or triggering any existing rights of first refusal." https://*********************/newsfeed/article/kodal-minerals-plc-final-results-notice-of-agm-2014203
it is extremely unlikely in my opinion that suay chin is selling stock they still have the right of first refusal for 80% of production from date of production +3 years. there have been no announcements via rns saying they have surrendered or agreed to alter the 2017 agreement between them and us.
they are far more likely to be currently engaged in a 3 way negotiation (4 if you include the chinese government) between us, them and hainan over how everyone gets what they want post production with the 80%.
i would hope to hear soon the outcome for the remaining 20% with hainan as that negotiation period expired 19/01/24.
Surin, predicting the bottom or top price with certainty is impossible, people who tell you they can are lying. Buying at .45p is not bad. You got them for less than Hainan paid.
If you plan to hold for the longer term (12 months+) I think you have a great chance of getting a good return.
If your plan is to trade on the short term swings then I couldn't say as I'm not here to trade.
As you say stay the course, the mine will be built and be in production in not too long. I would suggest at that point you wouldn't have a chance to buy anywhere near .45p.
I'm sure there will be plenty of opportunities for people to trade and profit with KOD over the period to production.
I'm also sure that my best guess as to timelines is wrong on multiple points. I confess I don't own a crystal ball.
I'd like to see a consistent mcap above 200m for at least 3 months before I start to believe the market is looking closely at us
Im hoping to be greedy again this year with my isa in april
We still have a way to go, at a guess I would think progress would be;
Now to June -
1. Gold updates/sale of Bougouni West completion
2. Order long leads and get some of these on site in readiness
3. All site area clearance and ground works completed (i.e foundations and landscaping)
June to September
1. Raininy season results in limited progress/if any
2. Publish more results/ chase any parts which have been delayed
October to March 25
1. Unit placement and construction of plant
2. Testing/fault finding etc
3. Initial production
May 2025 Full production
September 2025 half year results published which may well be when the market wakes up to the share.
This is my favourite quote so far this year.
Paul2566 - "The name of the game is to have more winners than losers. You will not get rich quick, but you can get poor quick if you set out with a get rich quick mindset."
I would also like to add that in my experience if you are reading about the next great company either using main steam media/ online boards then you are likely to have already missed most of the price increase in a share. Learning to read company accounts for smaller companies under 1B market cap would also be a good idea if you planned to invest in individual smaller firms.
If you use the figures from the december interim report KOD has a book value (cash,assets and Kmuk holding) of 0.3345p
I think this is a good time to buy.
The lithium price needed to come down in order for cheaper end products to be able to enter the market. What I would like to see is big growth in for example EV`s with a price range of £15-30,000 as that's a much bigger potential customer base. I would hope the price settles at around $1000. Allowing more people to afford products which use lithium in their manufacture.
Just thinking back on the year, I remember feeling a bit grim about the SP as we ended 2022. Then 2023 proved to be a great year for the company. I will continue to make opportunistic buys and hold through 2024 and beyond.
From my perspective if the SP reaches 0.5p by the end of 2024 that's another 40% gain just for 2024. Of course higher numbers would also be welcome.
I would love to see us breach 1p next year and then stay above.
Happy New Year everyone wishing you all the best for 2024
From the RNS 22/12/23
"Bougouni Lithium Project - Engineering Development
Bougouni Lithium project is an advanced lithium project which has a mining permit for an initial twelve-year period, renewable in ten-year blocks until all resources are mined, covering 97 km² of highly prospective lithium deposits, which to date has a JORC Mineral Resource Estimate of 31.9Mt of Li2O at 1.06%.
The Stage 1 development, for the DMS plant, is progressing well, with the access road upgrade and construction nearing completion and clearance of site for the proposed processing plant development commencing.
The Engineering design of the DMS modular units is complete and engineering representatives from Hainan and Kodal recently visited the Johannesburg offices of our engineering consultant DRA Global to review the proposed units.
Engineering works are continuing with the commencement of the procurement of long lead items and in Mali, our development team is building our internal capacity for the construction phase and future operations of the Bougouni Lithium project."