Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Fair play Accionista you are correct (my eyes now resent me for speed reading the sources you provided)
Also caught something else that I had not clocked I was still using 8.5y LOM instead of 3.9y for DMS P1.
Daz I feel a bit mean now after your Greece offer, I was only going to buy everyone a pint. Lads & Lasses holiday perhaps?
Daz- certainly there are different processing routes but the two are not incomparable.
https://news.metal.com/newscontent/101743372/the-difference-between-lithium-carbonate-and-lithium-hydroxide-as-battery-materials
Accionista- assuming Li20 6-7% and Li2CO3 at 30-50% I would need to look at it further but I don't see a 10:1 conversion rate on resource tonnage.
https://panasiametals.com/investors/conversion-tables/
Https://www.mining.com/codelco-secures-first-own-lithium-asset-with-australian-firm-buy/
A 2MT lithium carbonate resource recently went for $250M (c.£200M)
If we hit the 50MT upgrade in June giving KOD c.22MT share of the resource that would mean that under the same conditions a guestimate offer price would be $2.75B (£2.2B) or 11p per share (c.20B shares in issue)
I, and I think many LTH`s would vote yes to an offer anywhere close to this.
The next big anticipated update should be in June, which is the MRE update which we hope will redefine the resource to over 50MT. It is currently c.31MT.
https://kodalminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Kodal-Investor-Presentation-FINAL-February-2024.pdf
I recomend reading the whole thing but page 8 gives the basic timeline from now to production.
Well that was a quick response time, thank you.
Lav after all this I hope you consider working in the mine development sector you certainly put in the hours to understand the processes involved. Thank you for the info.
A small detail but hopefully of interest to some on the BB.
Just did my weekly X-ray of the portfolio with KOD shares and noticed that they have changed how they classify KOD from Small-Growth to Small-Blend. Blend simply means a mix of growth and value.
The thought of KOD becoming a value stock in the future makes me smile.
I would recommend for people interested in understanding the internal company relationship (balance of control) to go to Companies House and read KMUK`s memorandum articles of association.
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/14477383/filing-history
It sets out how control, rights and responsibilities are distributed within the company structure. Also it is important to note that KMUK is a UK based business and so UK law applies to how it can act.
My personal opinion as far as a potential take over of either KMUK or Kodal is that either; on transfer of license to KMUK, after the first full year accounts are published after production or after the successful completion of the stage 2 flotation plant (around 2026-27).
Personally the last option is the most attractive. Fosun/Hainan would get a fully established mine capable of producing enough material for their needs. Kodal shareholders would get a high return on their stock cerca 5-15p range at that point for today's price. Also Bernard has stated he and the team are actively looking to expand both current assets and look at potential new sites in Africa. 2026 onwards would have given them enough time to have found/explored and done due diligence on these.
Bernard in particular stands to benefit from a sale either of both companies or simply KMUK as he is a major share holder (+1%) on Kodal . However he is a careful and studious man. I believe his actions are in the best interest of shareholders. He is in his late 50`s now and at least on my timeline he would be nearing retirement. I'm sure at that point, part of him wouldn't mind having enough cash to head out into the wilderness and explore what he wants, start a new private company or even just sit by the pool with a good book.
Gold results will come but I imagine the pressures of getting the mine up and running will mean this news will take longer. But to counter this we will have a producing mine. Potato Portartoe, Tomato Tomarto?
Hope you all have a great bank holiday/weekend.
Time to unplug, see you all next week.
Surin, I am quite confused by some of your previous posts. You have said Kodal is one of the best companies and then follow up by saying the company and BA do not care about shareholders or returns.
The AIM is a tough place to invest, I wish you the best of luck in your future research.
I think there is no chance of a TO before the license is transferred to KMUK.
That being said, it was interesting that KOD includes a table of recent acquisitions and prices in the Feb 2024 investor document.
Could anyone with more experience please give your thoughts on how a take over price would be calculated and given our circumstances what sort of a premium would be reasonable for Kodal to expect?
"· US$7 million to be paid within 10 days of the first shipment of spodumene concentrate from the Bougouni Lithium Project, or on 31 October 2024, whichever date is earlier."
The date of first production/shipment seems to be inching closer than december 2024. If it wasn't then why include this part?
Ah, good point. Hence the October commissioning process beginning. In that case I would expect that there will be some confirmation that they are intransit in the planned July announcement?
"The delivery time ex-works is just 3 months, which means that all equipment will be on site within 6 months (allowing for shipping time). This is around 2 months quicker than other bidders and provides sufficient time for the Company to complete civil construction works on site in advance of receiving the Haiwang package, to underpin our goal of becoming a producer before the end of 2024. "
I was very pleased with yesterday's RNS, Kodal continues its progression towards end of year production.
I also agree with others who have posted about politeness to all posters on this BB, manners cost nothing.
Traders will trade, they largely left over the winter but their return signals that Kodal is now back on more peoples radar. More interest in a stock is positive especially if LTH`s have already built a position they are happy with.
Looking to what comes next, well if we are going by BA`s established style of under announcing huge news then I think we will get the 50+MT upgrade. This announcement is due in the next 60-90 days so no time at all. I think that they already have a good idea of how much is held in the ground. Hence the upgrade to the DMS processing equipment. Which indicates more resources and a longer life of mine.
Then in July the construction update. Using yesterday's RNS we should expect the July update to confirm the 2 major long lead items are onsite. They have been ordered with delivery expected 3 months from now, so at the end of June. The July update should also confirm the site is cleared/ground works mostly completed. Work will then begin on installing the items on site.
It's going to be interesting to see excitement build over the next 9 months. My hope is to see us at least at 200M Mcap by September, then who knows once we get to Christmas 2024.
They supply part of the equipment for the mine and have done it globally for 10 years?
"The dual crushing circuit modules have been awarded to Beijing High Dynamic Technology Co., Ltd. ("BHD") in China. BHD will provide a turnkey design and supply package for the dual crushing equipment modules, including all ancillary equipment, in accordance with the detailed design concept established with DRA Projects in South Africa. The contract price is under budget and includes one year of strategic maintenance spares. The delivery time ex-works is just 3 months, which is around 2 months quicker than other bidders.
In the past 10 years, BHD has supplied crushing equipment of similar and much larger capacity to numerous projects in China and worldwide, including the DRC, Namibia, Malaysia, Australia, the UK, the USA and South Africa."
Bfd is spot on. Id also wager it will mean the manufacturers will work to the best of their ability as this is an inter china business deal. The fact that central government had to approve Hainan/Fosun`s use of money abroad means the government wont want any unnecessary mistakes made either.
All rather nicely tied up, in a neat little package.
Very happy with this update.
After first read, what stands out to me is clearly David Teng has been going at it in China, making sure that the equipment manufactures get items to us asap (2 month faster than usual).
Mining contractors all lined up and on site before end of the month.
Production can be scaled to 1.2MT of material through-put per annum based on ordered design.
Phase 2 Flotation plant expected to be under construction/complete within the next 2 years.
Currently all contracts and build costs are within expected ranges meaning we wont need more than 65M already set aside.
Another blue day and a 7am RNS?
All sorted for the next 3 years Bridgedogg.
"Offtake for first 3 years of Stage 1 production (DMS only) - 80% Suay Chin International (ROFR) & 20% Fosun International"
https://kodalminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Kodal-Investor-Presentation-FINAL-February-2024.pdf
Page 20 covers the offtake agreement.
Looks like LLL is getting closer to resolving its tax and export issues.
LLL planned production Q3 2024
KOD planned production Q4 2024
Yes Merc i agree, now is a reasonable point to expect timelines on the actual construction process. Personally I have all fingers and toes crossed for 50MT+ total resource announcement in June.
Hi Laverda, yes completely agree. It was one of those sort of statements that catches the eye and caused me to say hand on a minute.
On the subject of Leo and what seems to have gone on with compliance or lack thereof. I think there is a chance, that as the lithium mining sector in Mali is just getting started the Mali government may look to make an example. The Malians very clearly want to be seen as a place to do business and that they are no longer beholden to France, and are will and able to clean house.
If that happened maybe Gangfeng might look to their next door neighbours for some collaboration to help out. It just so happens that a fellow Chinese company has moved in recently and are working closely with a reputable British company who are passionate about compliance and have an established team with connections in country.
Who knows?