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One additional way to look at this mess regarding >750p is that is about the $$ what must be attained to even get many investors, employees of the company and even board members back to a break even So no matter how you slice it shares or value put the share base back x20 and increase the value or get the value to 750p and then your smaller share base now is worth the same. Some chaps over in the states have to get $50.00 a share to break even, so either side of the pond its all a mess and if there is no share price support then the mess becomes worse. Pom Pom's are in storage...
" In sheer numbers of shares only" not value. If you take your 40p and multiply it by 20x you get >750p. Just saying numbers of shares.
Well no one here is excited over this move.....and even for us bullish for ages supporters we have our limits.
" and if they can get drugs/technologies to market in 2021/2022 then decently into three figures "
Well MICHU they'd need to effectively get it >750p just to get you back to where you were this morning correct?
So let's hope that this is decently WAY into three figures, cause even at 750p they've done nothing except gotten you back to square one,. I'd say decently into four figures Niceto as that would make some people a bit happier. I'm still bullish, I'm a believer and I am still a supporter, however I am also out a ton of shares here, and no idea if the management is going to put a floor under the current share price? we need news to move us into triple digits now...there will be no "new money from me", not likely any II's not until we see something that warrants it. If they do a raise at 30p as you suggest then the dilution alone will knock it down to 20's is my guess. Bearish hmmmmm perhaps or also maybe just a realist.
NicetoMichu and like me when the sell button is active and the >40p opens and allows trading which way is it headed? that's the real question do we head for >60p or lower below 40p and then just dip into the 30p and languish on no news to drift even into 20p range in a couple of weeks. That values of our holdings are basically nothing.
What happened is your share count disappeared. Your share counts are down by 20x and nothing in the way of substantive news to support the new > 45p price. this AIIM share price is where it was three years ago. Yes look back and see three years ago it was 50p and the board members and staff were all given warrants at 50p and we had two drugs in trials then. Fast forward three long years and whallah we have a share price of 50p and two drugs still in trials....hmmmm Only difference is now you have nearly 2,000 percent less shares. If you had 10,000 shares at >50p back then,, well now you have a measly 500 shares at >50p so basically you've been ______? No two ways about it and worse yet how long before it dips below >45p and then below 40p and 30's later and the value of shares continue to plummet. We'd need to 750p or maybe 1,000p to begin to see a recovery in some losses here. We need news to support this mess....GLTA
No corrections or challenges as you're entitled to your opinion and stated all of the correct terminology that I've recently used as well. regardless of past, present or future these terms have been associated with this investment and this trend can't continue. ' Poor Management, Further Dilution, Company's Existence, Total Cash Burn, Communications and Prioritization of Direction) all key buzzwords here that clearly define many posts. Look I get it I've been here as an investor for roughly six very long years. I am a fan of the company, their pipeline and promise. I want to be a fan of the management team and board and I am trying and will continue to try but may not invest any further. Because in that time I've seen many VC or II's lose their investment or large parts of. We've been given slow communications, slow results, constant dilution, and now consolidations. I have a chap I occasionally converse with stateside said he had invested when ADR's went public over on NAZ. Claimed he had 5,000 of them ADR's at about $1.00 each.. Then says he had them split by a value of 10 last year to keep listing. That reduced his holdings to 500 ADR's then says this next planned split by value of 5 to our 1 will leave him with 100 of them ADR's from his 5,000 initial shares. That will further reduce his holdings to 100 and Claims his investment of $5,000 is now spread over the 100. Says he was at $1.00 per ADR and now says he has only 100 left after next split and has to have U.S $50.00 dollars to break even. Says he's been reduced to nothing and won't invest anymore and I can see his point. I did the math and that poor sap would only get his investment back if AIM breaks >750p as his ADR's are now 5/1 for ours. I just don't get the massive dilution and raises on either market, it's no wonder it takes new fund raises to lure investments as we're all wiped out here. I am long now and will remain that way until I can get some glimps of hope, but will weigh very cautiously any further investments as I am tired of those "buzz words" Cold Buffet, Viveka and NicetoMichu, look my stance on this hasn't changed. My hopes remain alive and my desire and dream for quality drugs that help children and anyone in general to improve, extend or even cure their lives is still a very keen desire of mine. However I am putting my pom poms up until I see improved communications, direction and results. All just my own opinion and thoughts and any facts that I got from the RNS and stateside chat. GLTA and fingers crossed for us all...we need it.
ColdBuffet - My frustrations are centered around their overzealous communications, Lack of clear communications and even down right misleading communications. Case in point go to the company website, scroll to media and read the presentation on their last public media release, almost a year ago. It clearly states that the fund raise was substantial enough to get them through all clinical trials and 2020 in that media release. Here is an excerpt...
Secure Cash Runway
Successful $16.9M fundraise covers clinical goals through mid-2020, plus $9.5m Spanish finance for
manufacturing scale up
So based on this communication why have there been not one but two more fund-raises since that communication and now a consolidation of shares and yet another fund-raise planned? any ideas? anybody? could It be because their too slow with the results, mismanage the funds that were raised and continue to drive the shareholders value into the ground? I'd say that's at least plausible. Not sure why the prior CFO left, maybe he too was tired of seeing the money revolve out the door (my speculation). My point is clear, don't communicate that the cash run-way is sufficient to see all clinical trials through until mid 2020 and then continue with the same fund-raise strategy. Simply secure the money to fund the trials and set it aside under lock and key and don't touch it for anything except trails. Its sheer nuts....I want clear, concise and consistent updates. Shareholders deserve honest talk, better communications and substantially better PR approach. Just my 2 cents
Rob that is true however if the company cant provide clear guidance and set market expectations, meet established target dates and communicate on a regular basis, then I am afraid that the 50,000 shares at $12.40 will continue to shrink below the $12.40 level that you mentioned and in that case their overall value wont be retained and shareholder value will be lost. That's what have been happening on both AIM and NAZDAQ, they just completed a 10/1 R/S over in the states about 9 mos ago and their share price went from like .30 cents before the split to like over $3.00 per share and now here it is again at like $.60 cents and that means their value is lost their talking another split 5/1 and fund raise which will make the share price lower again. It's like they don't care about protecting the shareholders positions over there as if you do the math those two splits in less than a year could have some of those positions at > $50.00 a share stateside and they may never ever see that kind of return. Let's see how this raise over in the states affects the share price for both listings. I just hope that management see's the value in communication, market updates and keeping the share price elevated.
Viveka, listen anything is possible. But at the risk of being brutally honest and not trying to dash hopes. You're scenario would be a complete opposite 180 degree turn from what this company and management has done in previous situations. Listen I'm a fan of the company ask anyone here, but my trust in their decisions and support for them is waning. Their market cap at the moment is less than all of the combined funds from grants, previous RS, fund raises and private sales to CMS in 2019. Why is that? Basically it's because the progress and results are too slow coming in to support any stock value appreciation or even balance and news is too slow trickling in and thus their efforts are met with spikes and no follow through support. No analyst coverage and no effort to consistently update the market and trading public to generate enthusiasm. So I do sincearly hope first of all that their meds are breakthroughs and help save lives. Secondly I truly hope that your scenario works out for us all because we all need it to. But if the management doesn't change and continues with their usual course of business and communications after this next reverse split. My fears are that the SP will continue to repeat its trend and the results will be the same. No regular communications, slow progress and as a result no share price support. Thus business as usual, and if that approach continues, well then your scenario doesn't have a chance of materializing Again not trying to be negative but merely pointing out the usual course of business is completely opposite of your possible scenario. In closing I will say that your scenario is plausible it's also possible and it's also very welcomed if that were to occur. For everyone's sake I hope that your suggestion pans out.....again these are just my own thoughts and opinions. I'm not at all trying to be overly negative or contrite in any way. I'm a believer in this company and their future, but they've got to improve in many areas.
Viveka, I think most all of us here agree that "Stop this ridiculous race to the bottom" would be helpful. And saying that the present SP does not reflect the progress the company has made since February 2019. or that They raised over £12 million then at 3.9p. In the last 12 months etc....: But also I want to offer my own opinions as to why this may be so.
" With all of those loans, grants, fund offerings & millions and millions raised etc.." the fact remains that progress is too slow, results are not always promptly reported, and there's little not no analyst coverage. The results of this are that investor and the markets enthusiasm is waning. The SP reflects reality perfectly and with this next consolidation and fund raise offering over in the US, the SP will likely peak the day of the split and slowly creep back down again with the same dismal results of last split and offering.
The management needs to understand that Facts are the markets value companies on pure results, prompt reporting, analyst coverage and clear guidance none of which seems to exist here. So with all of the progress made in 2019 and millions upon millions upon millions granted in loans or funds raised by reverse splitting the company and its shareholders into oblivion. The fact remains that the share price does seem to reflect the slow progress, lack of prompt reporting , poor decisions and lack of public marketing to which builds excitement to prop the share price up.
What other logical explanation would offer why both AIM and Nazdaq markets seem to be undervaluing the SP? To me its fairly simple and that is because of those things mentioned here. Markets reward companies whom deliver on those things. These are my own thoughts, opinions and personal observations after supporting this company for many, many years. Going forward both my enthusiasm and criticism will be tempered, and fair. I will see what results materialize, what news is promptly reported and what effort's are put into propping up the SP and what decisions are made to "create protect and maintain shareholder value" ...Again this is just my own opinions.
"We continue to examine all options for financing our lead R&D programs and manufacturing scale-up," Chief Executive Craig Cook said adding that if approved the resolutions will provide flexibility to enable an equity fundraise in the U.S.
( I have another suggestion, take a loan out at 4% interest and pay it back when you get drug approval ) a consolidation of shares and an equity fundraise in this case is nothing more than reducing existing shares to near nothing and issuing more shares and debt.
The company said it has the support of CMS Medical Venture Investment (HK) Ltd. and A&B (HK) Company Ltd., who own 44% of the company's issued share capital between them.
( CMS 44% stake will be maintained "ONLY" If the share price is maintained at or higher than "post split" consolidation levels)
if not maintained or higher then CMS can watch the share price drop along with their 44%, ownership. I am merely stating possibilities or facts here nothing other than my observation, or opinions about what could happen if the share price does not remain constant or above the post consolidation levels.
Just back in from a dreadful , cold and wet lunch I guess my spirits are dampened along with my mood and opinion as I am not usually this negative. However the more I see mismanaged the more pessimistic I become. Thankfully me pub has F&C's and cold Stout on the menu, cant wait.
NicetoMichu, I did invest in a company back in the 1990's that issued a 3 foe 2 forward split each and every year for 5 years. So they gave a 1/3 back to the shareholders allowing ones portfolio to grow 33% annually in share count. More importantly the company kept the share price propped and grew it higher each and every time the additional shares flooded the scene. It took about one year to rebalance the share price, and then bamm another forward split. So it does happen it happens to well ran, well balanced, and "well managed" companies.
No Timmy it's not just over on the Nazdaq for the ADR's it's your shares here on AIM . The consolidation is fine just as some say well the ratio is the same as the share base shrinks. If the company doesn't post news to keep the new ration share price from falling once again here or over in the states then the consolidation or better yet call it a reverse split will simply prove nothing and the share price drops again with no support. Look this company has got to stop with the consolidation, reverse splits and issuance of new shares to raise capital. Go borrow the money without dilution to the poor saps holding this company up. Better yet deliver on the tasks at hand use the money as sparingly as possible, granted trials take time but every time there's a raise like with CMS the word in the RNS is that money is set aside to see all clinical through until NDA and this is simply not true. Get the results delivered and when this is 100p or more than do a forward split back to 20p and deliver more good news, get it back to >100p and forward split again. Give back to those that have given to you.
While my share base will be greatly diminished due to consolidation, so will others. For example the CFO stamp is listed as having bought 500,000 ordinary shares which were purchased in the > 5p range and that will be reduced down to 25,000 shares if my math is correct (500,000 / 20 = 25,000) My own lot is being downsized in equal fashion and those poor investors in the states have been busted down twice in under a year. 10/1 RS last year in 2019 and now a 5/1 in 2020 so that leaves everyone on both sides of the pond asking themselves how does this constant consolidation and not propping up the SP "build shareholder value" the answer is it does not. Management had better find some news to prop this SP up moving forward or else this consolidation will be met with short sellers entourage and they will walk it back down until this is R/S again and again until there are no investors. No investor will keep throwing good money after bad if the management isn't willing to prop up the share price with credible and noteworthy updates. when this company actually scores something tangible and the SP rockets lets see a forward split eh?
The trading day just got started over in the states so let's see how positive the day stays and which way it ultimately heads. For me I am happy to sit at me pub, hoist a pint and just watch how the states over there react to the news. I have a suspicion that this 20% gain eluded to here will most likely evaporate as their trading day goes. Viveka I concur that the leaderships stance on "creating shareholder value" is an empty and useless comment if you don't deliver on your actions and communicate in a consistent and meaningful manner.
One additional thought regarding the fundraise and consolidation of shares...The company desperately needs to issue some very "favorable and positive" news following this consolidation effort or otherwise the share price will merely fall at a fast pace and sink any chance to prove to the shareholders that this supposedly necessary step was well thought out before acting on it. It will raise the price of the shares but hey this is AIM so they share price can bottom out again if not supported by some very favorable guidance, positive news and consistent informative communications to the shareholders in order to prop up the shares going forward and keep the shares propped up in price. All just my two cents but with every action is a reaction and if you want positive acceptance of this action by the company you need to be prudent and timely with your decisions . I'm willing to wait another 12-18 months to see how this pans out, as I don't have much choice, and my hopes are for those afflicted will illness any patients , any children with cancer and those suffering that this all works out. After all its always been about the positive way these drugs could improve the lives of those suffering from afflictions. However I am hopeful that those of us that have been funding and contributing will eventually also be generously rewarded.
Well what's going? This RNS comes with some sting to it for sure. I don't really glean any positive news in the RNS and I find it odd that this seems to be driven by an equities or fund raising over in the states to effectively consolidate the share base here and issues more shares in accordance to 505. I mean the 505 rule allows for the board to issue company shares up to a "predetermined limit". Is the forthcoming equity raise "so large" that it would exceed the current allowable 505 limitation? essentially forcing the company to enact a R/S or Consolidation in order to raise more money, through issuance of more shares and not exceed the 505 rule? I simply don't get it as the claimed to have had enough funds to see the trials through to NDA according the tCMS bail out the funds were set aside from that agreement to see it through.
In my opinion its either this or equally likely is the possibility their consolidation is in preparation for a possible buyout. No buyer or owner wants hundreds of millions or billions of shares floating around when they make a bid for another in an acquisition. A potential buyer wants a "clean and orderly" business with "little debt, modest and manageable shares" as I see it this consolidation effort, next fund raise and finish up the manufacturing facility could certainly be one of two possibilities. Either (a) it could be the next stage in building the business toward the NDA and drug production or (b) tidying up the house, wrapping up the loose ends and shrinking the share base for an orderly exit or buyout. All just my two cents and only speculating as I have no knowledge of either. NTmichu and Viveka I do have appreciation for the conversations here, I shall see over the next 12-18 months which way they go. If they do get an offer to buy them out I'd hope for the sake of continued loyalist and devoted shareholders that the check is in the Billions and not millions as that is the only credible way to prove that shareholders are valued.
Either deliver on a multi-billion drug, save lives and capture a huge portion of the market or sell the company for billions and make our investments worth the wait. All just my two cents worth and personal opinion, I'm going to need a few pints of heavy stout later this afternoon to digest this so called "mixed news"... GLTA
Viveka, I've been a long time supporter, investor and optimist of this company and its working toward cures to improve lives of other especially children with DIPG and no hope for the parents. I don't know what the future S/P will be nor what good news will come, nor if they secure non-dilutive funding. I can merely speculate like others and hope for a positive turn around in the company. I do however completely agree with your and NTMichu regarding the misguidance, and poor leadership of the previous management. However as stated this has now changed, and look we're not all perfect. Much like every human we've all made questionable decisions, taken detours that maybe didn't pan out etc. However what matters is that you learn from those times and make yourself better as a result. I feel that Craig and the other management are doing just that. They've refocused, when raises were completed they sat aside the funds to complete trials and they've reduced the pipeline and committed to the achievable results that can come quickly. I don't have all of the answers that you seek, but if I were to guess I'd sum it up as the following. I'm much more comfortable today with my investment here, then I was in 2018. I feel certain that the company is on a path to corrective measures and I'm hopeful that all the effort will pay off for patients, and their families. If that happens then the S/P will reflect it is my estimation and while it was a long journey if a child with DIPG has been given hope for a tomorrow then the journey was worth it. The share price will and must reflect these successes however it may take time. I'd estimate news will continue to produce both an eventual upward trend this year along with spikes as their will be buyers and sellers. I'm hopeful that we end the year 15p - 25p range with several RNS this year painting a much clearer picture for all on the successes and next steps. That will build momentum into 2021 and raise the SP. All just speculation and my 2 cents for whatever it's worth.
Viveka thank you for sharing such an inspirational post, and yes the curing of this horrible disease is really what this investment is all about. GLTA....
Double Figures Indeed.....I for one agree and I feel certain that those "double figures" could be a reality before end of year. Now on to the departure from the EU and the effect it may have on many stocks that's still to come. I for one will be hoisting a pint or three later this evening at me pub in celebration of such. GLTA on this investment as this 2020 could possibly be the corner been turned and progress secured.