Member Info for George-Inn

Across the pond is bonkers.....I'm going for F&C's early this afternoon and two pints of Stout :)

Titled - Midatech is pleased to announce positive results from a first in human study of its MTX102 immuno-tolerising vaccine product candidate in diabetes.
My question after reading this is twofold - (1) why bury this on a Friday posting when hardly any readers are out there unless you're hoping for weekend traction. (2) Since this was a consortium study and the "safety" aspect was materialized as safe and no after affects then why not as a company explain more about the dosage aspect? tell the audience the intended target of the study other than safety. was it safe at 1 milligram or 200? Anyway a nice piece of news but I question the timing and lack of additional enthusiasm, additional data around the RNS. Good read though if you can filter through the intent of the study.

Michu - It would be a beautiful thing indeed, and touch the lives of so many families whom otherwise may not have hope for their child. I'd hope that the research and results continues on a positive note and that more news is released in Q4 on this promising drug. When traders realize what $100 million a year in potential sales could mean for this small co, the share price will perk up, not to mention that some proceeds could go towards the finalization of 201 as it too prepares for NDA. Here's to hoping that '20 - '21 are good for patients and us investors who've been patient. Cheer's to all, bout time for an earlier afternoon Pint of Porter to celebrate a positive RNS.

From the RNS - Result of AGM

Midatech Pharma PLC (AIM: MTPH.L; Nasdaq: MTP), the R&D company focused on delivering innovative oncology and rare disease products to patients, is pleased to announce that all resolutions were passed at the Annual General Meeting held earlier today.

So let's see something now from the CMS perspective.

And so we got the RNS as I speculated. Now let's see what else comes out of the GM related to the following:

Taken from the RNS ---- Following consultations with key opinion leaders, regulators, and potential partners, the Company plans to develop MTD201 as a new differentiated product for the treatment of acromegaly and NETs. Midatech has determined that the product characteristics uniquely conferred by Q-Sphera support this positioning of MTD201 to provide the most valuable, de-risked development programme for the Company. A key factor underpinning this decision is the significant competitive advantage and value added as a result of Midatech’s Q-Sphera sustained release technology. The technology has patent protection into the 2030’s.

First off this is not a prediction and I don't have any knowledge of such, but merely a speculation on my part. I had hoped that the company and its management team would release any pending or positive news prior to the GM of the shareholders. It was my sincere hope that a meeting with the FDA or other regulatory agencies would've occurred by now regarding the best direction to take 201, updates with 110 and progress made with planned liver advancement study or clinical announcement. These sorts of hardline questions are going to be brought up in the GM and one would think the management would or should be prepared to answer. This recent influx of cash from the Chinese has allowed operations to continue, so answers to tough questions had better be readied. My guess is that a "smart approach" would be a release of information prior to the meeting, which would answer some of these questions and be prudent to facilitate a discussion. Just my 2 cents and again who know if they have any news to release or not? I have no clue, but I suspect that if they were smart they'd do so.

This low in the 6p and maybe dip into the 5p, range I've added a few more today to the mountain of shares owned. When the news breaks that we're all waiting for (direction the company will elect to take for 201) that decision will likely be determined prior to the annual shareholder meeting in mid June and released by RNS, and they'd be ready for investor questions. I don't want to wait until the meeting and RNS before adding a few more shares as today's investment in shares will likely be higher by then anyway.....GLTA

If common is up 60% then ratio of 20 common to 1 ADR should be 60% x 20 or 1,200% not getting that ratio split at all, but i digress. Nice to see a little action today. If as someone says buyout well it will not even be considered in my opinion unless it's minimum 50p or more as that wouldnt even make the warrants excercise and that wouldnt bode well for any share holder. I'd rather see 150p and minimum myself....then it would be pint time

It's up like 70% in the states on nearly 10 million volume, but don't see how that is possible as after the R/S those chaps took there was only 879,000 shares float so where are all of these ADR's coming from as the ratio is 20-1 for common. Does that even equate? I mean mathmatically mabe NicetoMichu can help me out. But if those chaps have 10 million volume in trades at 20-1 ratio that is 200 million common. Correct?

Par for the course for 2018 results, yes strategically they dumped the MPUS, cleaned up the balance sheet by paying off some of the creditors and loans and "slimmed down" the company by closing the lab testing in Abington Top that with a change in CEO and a China deal, and yes that was quite a year. Personally one that I'd just as soon forget and move on forward into 19 & 2020. Anyway not much to see hear in this and oddly enough not much notification regarding the call. I will plan to attend the call as I am curious to see if there are any Q/A by any relative parties interested in next steps. Personally the next RNS out should be affirmation that stateside they have met all terms necessary to list on the Nasdaq so "compliance regained" then I'd like to see some real RNS with some meat in them. 2019 should be a year of refocus sure but should also be a year of results, ramping Spanish facility and also what about the "bigger pharma" whom is testing 201? How about an update on this bot of news? waiting but not adding more just yet at least not here at the moment.

Well NicetoMich I'd say that your math is fairly accurate and spot on from my point of view....cheers To that I only have the following to add..... ( in the neighborhood of 20 fold the current SP would not be unrealistic by 2022 ) as taken directly from the post. And if my math is correct that is 3 years from now... 2020, 2021 and 2022. Now for a stock to rise 20 fold or as you noted 400 times todays value over a three year period of time. Hmmm

History will point out that that many stocks have returned 400x gains and even bigger returns have occurred in single stocks over a period of similar time. Punchy prediction!! Yes perhaps, no doubt but hey it's something to look forward to, and anything is a possibility. As an example take a look at JAZZ Pharma in a 3 year window with their stunning growth.....miracles do occur. ;)
Tomorrow is Friday so I plan on me pints, but think I will opt for the Beef Pie this week over me F&C's. The pie has some good veggies maybe that will balance me pints. Enjoy the weekend and GLTA investors.

If early commercialization for 201 and 110 were to occur in Asia and then set the stage for EU / FDA approvals then with the amount of adoption and globalization of those compounds, the news then one may suspect that more that 5% of the market opportunity would be for Acromegaly and if superior to NVS product then what's the probability of either a bid war with China and Norvartis for the compound, and pipeline. I suspect that something in the neighborhood of 20 fold the current SP would not be unrealistic by 2022.

NiceMichu - Like you said 20p is more than doable this summer and I'd be looking for 100p or more by next summer. All the while very glad I continued to add, and add, and add, and well........Add :) this is going to eventually pay off and then I will open the bar tab for pints for all.

Along with me F&C's would be just about as I predicted from earlier this week 9p - 11p in the common, but expect a soar for the ADR's next week. Cheers and GLTA.

That after the R/S in shares over in the states the ADR ratio will be 20 - 1 and that the share float will be moved below a million from roughly 8 million. So that makes the active ADR count about 849k issued. Any movement over in the states will be magnified many fold over the common, I know there are those here whom don't see or may disagree predicated on principal, but it's my thoughts that the re-pricing on the 8th may be somewhere around $2.25 - $2.40 range for the ADR's or somewhere about 9p - 11p range common. However I don't think news that moves the common will equate to same moves in the states. I'd say it will magnified many fold due to the ratio, again just my two cents. I also feel that CMS will have some sort of news out after the 8th as I bet they are waiting on the whole corrective calculations to take place. Again just my thoughts and speculation, guess we'll see it all happen next Monday and go from there.

Congrats management team at Midatech, long hard road to get this approval. For the long term stock holders like myself, this is welcomed news and a boost to continued good fortune and planning from the new CEO. Sitting on a mountain of shares here, and Friday to boot. It's early yet and the Yanks across the pond aren't up yep, but when they get the news you can easily suspect 50% upward push bank that. All in all this Spanish endorsement should be seen as just that, a positive endorsement that their manufacturing facility will be ramped up, increase jobs and be seen as a sound investment by the Spaniard's. The facility loan will enable Midatech to hire workers to expand their footprint, buy newer technology, expand production capabilities and prepare them to take on SLAR and the put a dent in Novartis. Of course if one thinks that Novartis will sit idly by and watch their number 4 pipeline product be challenged you'd be sorely wrong. Question in the next two years to consider is who wants this technology more Novartis or the Chinese? ....Us shareholders merely have to wait for the strategist to wake up and figure out when and how it will all play out.. Hell it Friday and Michu knows what I have planned. I'm headed down and across in a couple of hours to start with a couple of cold pints of stout, followed by a heaping plate of F&C's.. Celebrate this good fortune a bit. Finally I will cap this by saying GLTA and this news should help you sleep a bit better knowing that work on factory expansion will allow more 201 product to be made, and sold, to help those suffering from these terrible diseases as their the true benefactors of such good technology like 201. Cheers....

Cheers....Michu, here's to hoping. My guess is that the mgt team or CMS will release something positive this summer regarding Chinese approval.

From the RNS.... " For ADR holders, the Ratio Change will have the same effect as a one-for-10 reverse ADR split. The ordinary shares of Midatech will not be affected by this change"

Over in stateside one of two possibilities will likely, play out. First the stock merge ratio will dramatically increase the share price and that will likely lead to short sellers piling into the fray and shorting the current price back down to get a free ride. This will happen if there is no support in the share price at the AIM or if the company fails to deliver on any commitment. Adversely the second possibility could play out that the ADR's act almost like a "preferred series stock" holding but without a dividend payout. I guess I'm merely intrigued by the ratio as it seems a 20 to 1 ratio in my mind means that any moves in the common are amplified 20 fold over in the states. And that imbalance means on the surface that the ADR's have the power to make dramatic moves when RNS or news is out and AIM shares sluggishly move oh say 10% forward, well stateside that same move is now amplified at 200% and a 20% move in the AIM common would equate to 400% stateside & that could be a traders dream...That's why I'm intrigued about being able to convert some of my shares. It opens the opportunity for massive swing trades over there. Depending of course if the AIM and NAZ are in harmony and balanced. All a bunch of "what if" and "mere speculation" at the moment I agree. But none the less I am intrigued as to how I can benefit from this 20 - 1 ADR golden ticket. Finally I did more research on CMS and their regulatory approval, I'd suspect that based on my research that the Chinese may be willing to submit for new drug approval using clinical data already performed by Phase I / II data and get these drugs to market. They likely didn't invest to merely sit around and wait 1 or 2 more years to get this rolling, so my hunch is an announcement from CMS is forthcoming I'd guess. Also as for that "major pharma" company testing their pipeline product, well I cant say for certain but it would be my guess that its one of the two large regional players with a global footprint. I'm speculating on everything here and this is all just my personal opinion from my research. It's Friday and soon time for me Pints of Porters and F&C's.. GLTA I hope we all get we want out of this investment.

N-Michu absolutely you're correct and I should have used a different comparison. I wasn't trying to assume anything about warrants at all other than one simple point and that is the exercise price of 50p......the management at MTPH seems to be sure bet that 50p will be attainable so I was making the point of 50p but tied it to the warrant ...

Regardless 50p is 50p and that equates to $.67 stateside and multiply that by a factor of 20 and that's like $13 plus and is a single ADR. Which seems to be way more value than common shares but since the books don't open until 8th and you can't convert shares until then it might not be as attractive by that time as it is now.. I will have to wait and see I presume but if I can convert I probably will do so with 25% of my shares .

Hmmm Well seems I was somewhat spot on regarding the managements interest to maintain that U.S. listing on the Nasdaq as that market listing and that trading board is well respected over there. Granted there are roughly 8.2 million ADR's in play which after the 8th will be under a million that market listing is obviously quite important to them considering the great lengths to go to retain it. I'd suspect its access to the FDA and future investor prospects. Okay that kind of leads me to the ratio adjustment. Today a single ADR is a mere 2 AIM shares and next month its 10x that at 20 common shares. Does everyone realize the significance of this at the warrant exercise price of 50p?
let me try this math just once.. 50p is roughly U.S. .67 cents. .67 x 20 common = $13.40. Now convert the $13.40 back to GBX and you.ve got 1,015p. Too my simplistic way of thinking next month the ADR's are going to be worth a hell of a lot moving forward, and I'm wondering how many of us are willing or planning to convert our common AIM over to their much higher ADR's ? I'm seriously considering on the 8th migrating at least a portion of my common AIM over to their ADR's for the mere "future value" prospects. In addition the RNS says that the common shares wont be affected, but in a way they are. What I mean is the total share base and float size, and if there are roughly 390 million common in issuance today, then one must divide that figure by 20 to determine the actual number of potential ADR's that can be issued as it will be far fewer. ADR's could be the golden ticket moving forward, so I'd like to make sure that I'm at least thinking out loud here and considering my options to move a portion of my holdings over and spread my options for trading on both markets. One additional thought here, and that is let's say the Nasdaq get's to roughly .80 cents and holds that range and then Deutsche Bank Trust Company opens the books and transfers the new ratio, that would make each American ADR about $8.00 U.S. From my research institutional, Retirement and Money Market funds like ETF's can invest in firms that are between $5 - $10 meaning that the ADR's could be scarfed up quickly. Driving the cost and value of these Depositories even potentially higher. Okay one final thought here and that is the Y/E results and next steps and upcoming conference call. My hunch is that they will wait for the Deutsche Bank Trust Company ADR re-valuation thing to play out. Secure the Nasdaq listing and release news about the upcoming Y/E release and shareholder conference call, so much news to flow over the next 30 days. My hunch is that somewhere in all of this will be an update regarding CMS and potentially the CFDA next steps in marketing acceptance or guidance of either 201 or 110. Very interesting times now and I will be looking into the possibility of transferring some of my AIM holdings over to ADR's as there are going to be far, far fewer of these to go around. GLTA