Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I've been averaging down for past couple of years. I continue to do so and as a results have amassed a mountain of shares. I feel very certain that MTPH will not go under, and I am probably of the opinion that something is brewing in the kettle. In fact it could be that management doesn't want to pull the trigger on RNS until L&G is done. Why waste good news on a declining trend. I am happy to add more into year end and if my hunch is right this gamble will pay off eventually. GLTA
Niceto - As you said they (Management) must have one hell of an envisaged as to the future and YES i do beleive that they do. Simply said IMHO I do beleive that such is the case, and that L&G because of their regulatory stance had to off load a percentage of thier shares as the business model shifted and as MTPH offloaded the MTPUS piece then L&G followed, but Woodford did not. This should tell you that somthing is brewing in the kettle, but alas what is yet to be seen. It might be a wee-bit early to head over to me pub for the pint 'o stout. But it is the time to soon be on me way down there. I'm not overly concerned here and I will add between now an end of year to load more shares ahead of such pending news. Yes AIM is pretty much as you described it here Niceto, but they now have listed in the states and when these clinical trail updates come due with news my guess is that its tied to more news related to partnership and paints a very positive picture on next steps in 2019 for IND or qualifier of FDA next steps. All in my opinion and I will agree that this could langusih into year end as I suspect, which means I pick up more shares on the cheap. GLTA
The management at Midatech may be taking their time mulling over direction, opportunities and options. I still believe that they sold off MTPUS to reduce their debt metric which provides an indication of a company's overall financial soundness. The 7 million loan was paid back, a reduction in employees, payroll and bonuses. A reduction in real estate, taxes and interest fees. A huge reduction in advertisement, medical reimbursements and administrative fees. All of this effort was done in order to transform them into a pure play R&D and in my personal opinion window dress themselves as an attractive potential buyout or partner. Just my two cents, but the wire is eerily quiet and the clock keeps ticking down the remainder of the year. A RNS is due but what will it say? what direction will it be? they have cash to float them well into '19 so what's the hush all about? I am buying more to hedge my already large lot. GLTA....
Yes Viveka your percentages are closer than mine. I wasn't reading the RNS as carefully as I should. Still I see Woodford is not selling and like others here have said someone is buying those big blocks of shares with no worries. I too am loading more Friday even ahead of any vote and Summit. I got a feeling that promising news is just around the corner. So now off for that afternoon pint and a little chat at the pub. I'm certain that some news is coming...
I'd agree...news soon. I think I will slip down for F&C later and then over the walk for that pint of stout.
Lowering their stake and voting rights percentages more than previous as most recent RNS shows they've decreased their position. I'd surmise that they've decreased from a position of about 16% down to under 3% now so these big blocks being sold were picked up by someone or some firm as basically the voting rights have shifted. So why would this occur? In some cases where the available float is small and majority of shares held by a few, some shift must occur if something of ownership changes are to come into play. I'm speculating of course but fundamental shifts in ownership and voting rights must occur for a massive change to take place. I'm adding more today or tomorrow and will wait to see what the results of this shift in voting rights means long term. Could mean that a partnership is in play with part ownership changes or potential buyout in play or even might mean L&G doesn't like the direction this is headed and wants out. I don't think that us common shareholders have much longer to wait before potentially some news of significance is announced and its possible that we hear something over the next week or two, but at least by end of year. Like a few others here I am of the belief that this investment or gamble comes good in a major way and that the shift in voting rights and ownership was necessary and strategic just like selling off the MTPUS portion. Window dressing for bigger plays and positioning the company for something is what is going on, but what is that something? decisions are to be made.. All of this is mere speculation on my part so please do your own research, and good luck to all as I feel that we're on the verge of finding something out soon.
I'd agree Sunday that this is due a bounce and there are plenty of catalyst that could push it that way. Right now though I'd suspect that management has much to consider. decisions, decisions and which route to go I'm sure that we'll get some sort of update sometime soon.
I follow pharma and have invested in pharma for a number of years. I also stay close to regulatory requirements for public companies like L&G and understand that they operate differently than those like Woodford. It's my opinion that L&G had to liquidate some as their requirements for investing are monitored and governed and when midatech management sold off a portion of the company then L&G had to follow suit as required per a public company. Midatech sold off assets, patents and property to restructure. Woodford doesn't fall under the same requirements for regulatory assets and investing, so it's likely that his fund won't follow. Now for a few words on drug progress and next steps, it's of my opinion that the management team is now fully in the drivers seat with the road wide open in front of them, question is now which exit to take? To partner or not? To go alone? To split the drug and partner a portion? Choices are numerous but the decision will be crucially important for all. As a person who studies pharma I know one thing for certain, and that is that in human tests are what every young company aspire to reach. Midatech has in 5 or 6 years built a manufacturing plant, tested variations of formulas and secured dozens of patents. They've moved from animal to in-human tests and now are showing remarkable results. I suspect that more positive news of these remarkable results are soon to come, trial updates on 110 program as well as next steps for Liver disease plus a decision on whether to partner or not should all be coming over the next weeks and months. So L&G sells a portion of their holdings in order to meet regulatory balance is really not the concern for me. My concern is what exit the management team decides to take as they're in the drivers seat here, and their decision will have a major impact on the future of midatech and the shareholders. These decisions can't be made with a snap of the finger or planned out of irrational motivation. Frankly I'm glad that the management and board hasn't came out with some news release addressing the decline in share price, as in my opinion they have much bigger things to consider. I'm not worried to any real degree of losing sleep or fretting. It's my opinion that the share price may languish and decline a bit more into year end as tax selling and repositioning occurs. But I also suspect a strong start to the new year and potentially it's driven by a snap back in AIM and pharma investing and perhaps just perhaps a clue to decision as to which proverbial exit that the management team has decided to take. As too me that's the real driver moving forward, that single decision as to the best way to market the drug predicated on those in human results. That's a key, key, key decision to make as it will set the path of the company moving forward as well as financial returns for the short term 3-5 years. No too me that single decision alone is so vital, not the daily fluctuations.
I suspect that one of two situations are going to either materialize by end of year. Either (1) that they've found an interested partner and are working out the details or they haven't and may have even received another sort of offer to ponder over. In either or none of these situations I expect the share price to linger or drift a bit lower into the close of the year. Tax loss selling and positioning may lead to lower entry points but can't bank on it. News of almost any positive type should reverse this trend, so with a few weeks left in the year one would expect news either on drug testing progress or partnership news. January has historically been a strong biotech and pharma start to the year, so predicting news and progress between now and then will be hard. I'm probably just going to continue to add to my position between now and then, Good luck to all this is merely just my observance and guess as to how the year may end and we could certainly use some positive news of some sorts.
Viveka......thanks for the kind comments. It's really hard to guess regarding whether large pharma(s) come knocking and as to when or even if...I'd suspect that as long as the revamped and improved management team keeps producing results and making crucial decisions as they have been, then us shareholders are in for both some surprises and hopefully great returns. A bit more colure here is to emphasize now the following information. The company is leaner and just reduced the payroll, expenses, insurances and operations costs by close to 40% and we renewed drive and refocused management their poised to deliver. I'd suspect that Craig has connections everywhere in the industry and he's just cleaned house and has something to show in the window. I'd imagine there is particular interests from some large pharma or two, but I don't think the board and management will jump at the first offer...their too experienced for that. My final thoughts here are that management will continue pressing forward with the FDA , and determining best route to market. I would estimate a continuation of management to continue strategizing their options and calculating their moves. It's nice to be in the drivers seat, have a leaner company that's pure R&D with a pipeline full of mid and late stage products. Less debt now that Mid-Cap is paid and less employees and expenses. Yes they may have to raise funds or partner in order to get these multimillion dollar drugs to NDA stage. However they have the patents, technology and manufacturing facility. On average it's costs companies like Novartis and Shire $2.5 billion to get a new drug to market or NDA. So buying a little R&D company like ECYT which Novartis just did saves them the hassle and let's them reap the rewards of market ready drugs. I'm just going to continue building my position, sit back and enjoy a pint of stout and watch what unfolds. I'm not worried and look forward to what Craig has in store as I'm sure he's comfortably in command and probably planning what's best for all. Thanks Viveka and good luck on your investments.
The states will likely fly in price and volume based on the news (NASDAQ Minimum Bid Price Extension) That is HUGE news over in the states as current shareholders can breath easier and new shareholders can come in and buy. Expect a fairly healthy volume day today and Monday in the states with share price increases. Put's the company focus and emphasis now pushing the NDA agenda and working with the FDA to get the shortest route to market. Any deep pockets out there in big pharma better get to the table quickly.
I'd say that from previous holdings and public shareholder information that L&G / Woodford Holdings and others are all fairly steady and stable bar a few k shares here or there and hold more than 50%. I've added a few more thousand today myself. Honestly not too worried as I'd suspect now that the sale is final, payroll, debt and expenses lightened by 40% or more and cash to move forward, I'd say we're in for a bit of news about the direction of the next phase from FDA discussions. More over big pharma who's cash cow is being threatened should look hard at this and see who's forging ahead putting pressure on their revenue stream with a potentially better drug. I'd say management and the board are in the drivers seat here, and simply need to keep doing what they're doing and not worry about the daily flux in share price, other than take position if you feel it. Good Luck to all and all in my personal opinion only.
Ever think that the off-loading of the MTPUS might have been completed to lighten the company and make it more attractive to big pharma possibly as an acquisition play? Call it window dressing if you will, but take a look at how cutting the payroll down by over 40% and off loading a portion of the company which wasn't needed has created a near perfect company leftover. What's left are four crucial pieces in no particular order....(1) Patents, (2) Manufacturing, (3) Leadership, (4) Pipeline. So my personal opinion is that there might be talks underway with deep pockets and its a matter of time before this pops. Take a moment to review in detail the ENDOCYTE acquisition and pay attention to their restructuring and how it played out for them. Might not mean anything or it might mean everything...
Indeed I am adding and continue to add basically cost averaging lower and lower. These share prices are absurd and the next obvious direction is probably up hard once the sale of MTPUS is complete and the possibility of 180 day extension in the US is announced to continue trading on their markets. That coupled with any potential news of continued progress in other key areas and any potential partnership or funding all could potentially have an explosive upward move. So yes I am continuing to add here and how about yourself? All just in my own personal observation and interests. What's your own take of the next couple of months?
What could be some of the reasons for selling the US piece of the business? I mean yes it certainly resturctures the business and in a sense lightens the load making for a much leaner company.
Other thougfs?
I'm not disappointed in the interim results nor the board decision to divest the US arm of the company. In some ways this is necessary and in a sense of the view considered a "brilliant" move. Look they had debt being called and didn't leverage the company any further to repay that. Instead they looked at their assets and sold off a portion of the company to repay it. As a shareholder I appreciate that move as it still protects the patents, keeps the company whole and removes the debt burden. Nick Robbins laid it well and the financial position of the company is now stronger as we head into the next phase of ramp-up. Remember there is another clinical for MT201 that will determine how best to market, and Midatech has consulted the regulators on just how to complete it and get it to market faster. That trial and the ramp-up of the Bilboa factory are necessary steps to clear the revised compound and manufacture it. My question is that now they've sold off the sales channel arm of the company how and why would they need to manufacture large quantities of drugs? I mean if they mass produce MT201 how are they going to market and distribute it? Answer!!!! I'd say they partner with a larger pharma who has the infrastructure already in place. That's my guess..else why keep the manufacturing facility? Pure Bio Play is brilliant if you keep the patents and proprietary data then you have value without the cost of sales people and real-estate over in the states. Plus the move makes the company more nimble as a whole and more attractive as a buy-out target. suitors can keep an eye on them now that they have lighten their expenses and reshaped the company. No I think as a whole this was a necessary and brilliant move, as always and for some years now I will continue to keep close to the hub on this one, and keep adding to my already large cache of shares. Who knows I may even make a small fortune if Greg and the board plan pans out. I'm excited for the next chapter, let's see how this plays out..
Before tomorrow's interim meeting. Also hoping that the presentation will provide updates on Launch of Bausch product and also give us a look at projected year end results. Could be a bit of positive news on the MTX110 progress and Liver Cancer as well. Seller spitting out shares under 30p can't keep it down forever so with continued good news off she goes. The yanks seem to keep buying and if there regain the compliance over in the states we're off to much higher prices. That's why I take the opportunity to continue loaded at these depressed levels while I can.
The timing of this ~10% correction and before interims is certainly in my favor to load a few more, thanks to the bloat selling. Waiting to see next RNS.
That this heads up and into earnings report. I'd also guess that there would be additional news related to either launch of Bausch product, financing, extension of delisting in the states or an update on MTD110. Just my thoughts of course and hope that we head into the high 35p - 40p range as we go into the next couple of weeks. Again I have no idea if any of this will materialize but based on the progress of MTD201 I am continuing to load at these depressed levels as I feel good things coming. Just my thoughts.
I'd agree with that statement and further it to say that a bit of news expected on official launch campaign of the Bausch product launch, maybe a view as of what sales numbers to be expected from that launch, and an update on DIPG progress and/or Liver cancer study launch. The question now is not whether the Q-Sphera platform with its targeted release is a success or not, as that's now been proven. It's now exciting to learn just how wildly successful it was and what best to do with it? That is a very good position in which to be in as they say this last interim on the MTD201 results put them in "the drivers seat" and any positive results from MTD110 should literally launch this tiny company onto the radars and into the mainstream. GLTA I will keep adding to my already large position.