Member Info for GeologyStudent

Me being optimistic. The higher the SP, the lesser the dilutive effect of converted notes. In my opinion, we should be sitting at ~£45mill Mcap at a production rate of 12ktpa. This roughly equates to 0.3p.

my previous statements are only valid if notes are not converted. I've done a quick calculation and based on an opening day closing price of 0.3p upon which notes in both CLN agreements are converted, there should be ~15.4bill shares in issue. Without conversion, there should be ~14.8bill shares in issue.

Hypothetically speaking, upon readmission If an open offer was extended to existing shareholders at 0.2p (at a discount), 400mill shares would also be added to the enlarged shares in issue. The end result would be the same. The only case under which there would be a less dilutive effect is if placing price was >0.2p.

Aggregate amount of shares resulting from 'Interest shares' and 'Fee shares' accrued from CLN amount to 400mill shares which will comprise 2.7% of the enlarged shares in issue. If the BoD had to raise funds (£0.8mill) via a placing/open offer, this would result in the addition of 1.3bill shares, or 8.7% of the enlarged shares in issue. The former method (CLN) has resulted in a lesser dilutive effect.

good from the Mali front. However, Kossanto East, if determined to be economically feasible, will not be in production until 2022 in my opinion. Therefore, I do not expect Kossanto East to have a material impact on the SP until then (Kossanto West will have an impact due to potential size of resource and nature of JV). ALO's operational focus is in Botswana and Zambia. A ramp-up to 22ktpa copper production and 30k oz gold production respectively should materialise by Q3 2018. We could see a £100mill Mcap company next year upon $2.50/lb copper price and $1,250/oz gold price.

I imagine the ore type they are currently processing has a 90% recovery rate, hence they are going ahead. The drilling and tests that are underway will probably take a few months, by which time they'll still be processing the same ore type plus the previous stockpile. In the grand scheme of things, the fact that appraisal work is occurring concurrently with production will not be an issue unless complications materialise.

To surmise the technical aspects of Mowana: the previous operator failed to manage the resource effectively, partly due to the firm they hired to assess the resource. The major issue, as far as I can discern, is the previous operator's failure to properly domain the various ore types thus inappropriate processing methods were used. As a result, recovery rates were adversely impacted. The geological model is being improved and ALO are undertaking further drilling to this vain in order to overcome this issue. Secondly, it is of the opinion of WAI that the resource does not currently conform to the internationally recognised standard 'JORC'. Again, pit optimisation and further drilling is planned and are probably underway now. It is expected that the Mineral Resource base will be reduced; the extent to which is unknown. However, only breccia mineralisation currently compile the resource base, omitting carbonate mineralisation. Providing that the DMS plant is a feasible option, carbonate mineralisation can be processed. As such, the mineral resource base will be inclusive of carbonate mineralisation, hence a significant in resource will follow. To conclude: (1) ALO are attempting to improve the poor geological model constructed by the previous operator. This will allow ALO to utilise an appropriate processing method for the various ore types; (2) ALO are attempting to find a method to process the ore without excessive copper loss, or use of uneconomical amounts of acid for leaching. If a successful method of treating is found, the DMS plant will be a feasible option. And a significant increase in NPV is expected.

aim to relist by end of May. I imagine the readmission document will be released in the next week or two.

Given the dilution resulting from the Mowana acquisition, we will have share price of 0.33p (£50mill Mcap). Also, the anticipated ramp-up in production in Q1 2018 may cause a slightly higher share price upon readmission.

due respect, the Mcap will not be that high upon readmission. We are (only) targeting an output rate of 10ktpa for H2 2017. Upon completion of the DMS plant and transition to 22ktpa in Q1 2018, one should expect a Mcap of ~£100mill at $2.50/lb copper price. Until such a time arrives, I do not expect the Mcap to breach ~£40-50mill unless finance for Matala is successfully secured.

Only providing objective information with a topping of speculation. The only time I inadvertently deceived shareholders was with respect to funding in Matala. A certain member of the BoD was under the impression that the deal on the verge of being concluded, and this was communicated to me. However, it later transpired, due to the reasons outlined, the deal could only be satisfied if certain conditions were met.

Same predicament. Averaged down for nearly three years. My first investment was at the age of 19, but now at 22 I have c.£35k invested.

Correct.

Once

One we achieve full scale production with DMS plant (22ktpa) in early 2018, I expect a pre-consolidation SP of 0.7p. Production in Matala should have started at the same time. Expecting ~0.8p within 12 months.

The ex-chairman (soon to be re-appointed) will own 29.9% and PenMin will own 29.9%.

If I remember correctly, Randgold have a corporate strategy of only pursuing assets with a 2-3mill+ oz resource and that are viable at a particular gold price ($1000/oz?). I believe the results from this phase of the campaign will be released at end of Q2.

Remove annum. Mistake.

is correct when he states that at 10ktpa annum and current copper price, the Mcap should reside at £60mill. I have already mentioned this. However, market confidence is another factor to consider.

I am aware Paternoster has a 12% stake in ALO. We are aiming for production in our Zambia asset by Q2 2017 with finance expected to be secured by September 2016. At current POG, ALO Mcap will stand at ~£40mill (excluding G and A and risk factor). This valuation excludes the JV we hold with Randgold, which if a multi-mill oz discovery is made, the ALO valuation will rally accordingly. Randgold's exploration campaign is expected to conclude in Q1 2017.