Member Info for GeologyStudent

There is significant upside to current levels, however the vast majority of shareholders have high averages. The significant dilution that has occurred due to the acquisition of the Mowana Mine and associated fundraising has destroyed any significant return for current shareholders.

Using a multiple of 5x, Cradle Arc should be valued at 17.5p upon steady state production which is scheduled to complete by June 2018. I believe a correction in share price will occur when the subsequent operating results are released in September 2018. Upon implementation of the DMS plant and steady state production at the expanded production capacity, we should see a share price of 40-50p by Q1 2019.

The BoD couldn't secure debt funding of $14mill from Chinese vendors in order to advance the Matala Project. On the positive side, we could be receiving a cash consideration of $2.5mill plus royalties of up to $2.5mill upon commencement of gold production. Anything is better than nothing.

Interview included: http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/194116/cradle-arc-re-jigs-mine-plan-at-mowana-to-speed-up-development-194116.html

I expect EBITDA margin to rise to 45% upon ramp-up to 22ktpa due to reduce costs attributed to economies of scale.

The research released by your firm is already well known on the board. I appreciate the in-depth analysis of Cradle Arc. It is clear to all, providing the management team hit their strategic milestones, there will be significant upside in the share price. Using an industry average EV/EBITDA multiple of 5 and EBITDA margin of 38% at $3.00/lb, I foresee a share price of 20p upon ramp-up to 12ktpa in the very near term. Using this ratio, I expect a share price of 50p upon ramp-up to 22ktpa by Q1 2019. Furthermore, a further uplift is to be expected upon reaching production phase at the Matala Gold Project. I am of the opinion the share price will be 60-70p by Q4 2019 providing all milestones are met.

Works now. Apologies.

Link doesn't work for me.

You're not wrong. I'm down 80%.

Do your own research. In this instance, the information you need is in a holdings RNS.

Bank Of New York Mellon holds a 10% stake in Cradle Arc through an equity fund. To my knowledge, they are amongst the top 5 asset management firms in the world ranked according to AUM.

They also received shares for the £1.8mill aggregate CLN's last year.

The cessation of all major sells seems to have coincided with the liquidation of our former broker last week. I haven't observed any major sells this week. They may have been selling their placing shares - not the loan note holders.

Just misinterpretation, but yes I was attempting to say our former broker may have been dumping stock.

Two divisions of our broker have entered into forced insolvency by the FCA. Align Research have implied they have been dumping stock. Possibly explains why we have experienced continuous selling. https://www.investegate.co.uk/financial-conduct/rns/beaufort-securities-and-beaufort-asset-clearing/201803020700044726G/

Institutional investors bought in at 10p. Your statement is correct, however. The market is sceptical as Mowana was previously a distressed asset that entered into liquidation. We need operational and/or financial results to prove viability of the asset.

C1 cost is approximately $1.50/lb; average all-in costs are $2.00lb; total costs including financing is roughly $2.35/lb. Do your own research. All public information.

We have produced 10,500 tonnes of copper concentrate. At 25% copper content, we have produced 2,625 tonnes of copper to date. Total cost of production including financing charges is $2.35/lb. At current copper price of $3.15/lb, we have a 25% profit margin. Considering we are in the growth stage of the company, free cash flow will be limited due to capital reinvestment.

Possibly or possibly not. In either event, my mid to long-term view is of a share price that is multi-fold to current levels.

That individual is not affiliated with Cradle Arc in any capacity. He was a director of Corac which used the 'CRA' ticker previously.