Member Info for GeologyStudent

sell order in the background. The performance of this company has been a joke so far.

We were operating at 80% of nameplate capacity in June. We have subsequently endured 40-50% capacity between July-September due to plant breakdowns. In the month of October, we should average recoveries of 80%. If we operate at 50% capacity - as in July through September - we will mill 50,000 tonnes of ore. At 1% copper and 80% recoveries, we should produce 400 tonnes of copper, which is below break-even of 450 tonnes. We need to operate at 55% capacity to break-even.

must be a large sell order in the background to spark the drop.

break-even stands at 450 tonnes as CRA have deferred a number of current liabilities until Jan 2019. Even at the current abysmal operating capacity of 50%, we should be at break-even in October due to processing of higher grades. But yes, without those deferrals, our break-even would be around 550-600 tonnes.

In September, we operated at approx. 50% of nameplate capacity. As stated before, even if we operate at 50% capacity in October, we should be producing at least 450 tonnes of copper due to higher grades, and as a consequence, be at break-even.

Gok Wan to interview on Proactive Investors today.

They had issues pertaining to drilling. They have rectified it. The issues pertaining to the processing equipment still persists, however. They've replaced the primary crusher and will be installing new parts dependent on financing. These additions will allow the ramp-up to proceed to nameplate capacity in December I expect. Also, even if the breakdowns persist, we should be breaking even by virtue of higher grades. But I am as disappointed as you are. 'Accelerated Development Plan' - more like Decelerated Development Plan.

According to my calculations, we suffered negative cashflow to the tune of $2.7-3.4mill in Q3 2018. A single month at nameplate capacity (1,000 tonnes) will yield positive cashflow of $3mill. If my previous statement materialises, we should have net breakeven, or slightly positive cashflow by year-end for H2 2018.

Even if the 'intermittent' breakdowns continue in October, we should be at operational cashflow breakeven by virtue of high recovery rates from supergene ore - that offers some comfort. It was previously forecast that we should produce 1,000 tonnes in October, but this will be revised down significantly, and the same applies for November. But crucially, we should have marginal positive cashflow for the two months, even WITH plant breakdowns.

The total forecast for Q3 2018 of 1,000 tonnes is now expected to be 10-20% lower. Given that we produced 300 tonnes and 250 tonnes in the month of July and August respectively, I expect the September production figure to be 250 - 350 tonnes. This is far below operational cash flow breakeven at 450 tonnes. Through improved recoveries and high grades, they should get their act together and atleast be breaking even in October (>450 tonnes).

I'm lost for words right now.....Hopefully, they can secure the debt funding to rehabilitate the mine. Arguably, it should have been done prior to production, but they obviously did not foresee breakdowns to this extent.

production rate for the month of September will be 320-360 tonnes, which is 10-20% lower than the forecasted 400 tonnes but a significant improvement on the abysmal previous two months.

cash flow breakeven is 450 tonnes per month at $2.75/lb.

15p @ $2.85/lb, 17p @ $3.00/lb.

Gok Wan didn't give much away in regards to progress at Mowana, but he did smirk when he stated that Q4 will be the key quarter. Hmmm.....

The issues we encountered over the past two months are relatively simple fixes, but cause significant downtime due to the isolated location of the mine and travel/procurement time to secure additional parts. With the additional debt financing in Q4 2018/Q1 2019, we will have spare parts on site therefore mitigate downtime.

Shame that 99% of pre-acquisition holders have a 10p+ average.

a large sell order in the background...

The $20mill DMS funding will be debt financed, with possible warrants attached. However, the existing major shareholders are vehemently opposed to any dilution. Further, I'm not a technical analyst but if nameplate capacity is reached next month, I expect an immediate uplift. CRA has suffered a number of technical and mechanical issues during the ramp-up phase, which is not unexpected considering it has been a few years since the plant has been operational, even at 50% capacity.

to my calculations, a single month at nameplate capacity will offset all losses in the previous three months. From July to September, we have endured an operating loss of $2.5mill. At current copper price, we can recoup this in the month of October.