Member Info for Genghis15

Beg pardon, wrong BB !

Don't confuse lifecycle lift costs with cash opex. On a cashflow basis anything over $20 is cash positive; but life of field per barrel cost (EPS only) is $37 bl according to CMD presentation. $8 f that difference is capex, not sure of the other $9 but would guess a combo of G&A, financing, contingency etc Those figa may have been updated but doubt they would vary greatly.

fwiw I'm sure RT is on record somewhere, prolly a Malcy interview, commenting that RFs of 30% or even 50% are common elsewhere in FBs. This was an observation, not a prediction.

And how much when Lincoln is redrilled and plugged in for flow test@ How much when Halifax and Warwick are drilled later this year/early next/ Lots more to come, methinks.

SIPP, do I detect a touch of the merry barmaid's apron in your late night post?

As it does, again, today!

It does appear to be pushing at that 40p ceiling atm.

Mb malcy's not going there 4 HUR? I assume he is but there are other cos he covers there,, the rig builder whose name escapes me for one.

Bit of a rant, daltry, tbh. A;;ne chairman (well nearly all) will b old boys, that's where you get the experience/contacts, etc. And all are, somewhat figureheads, but it is nevertheless a vital role and good to see it filled.

"SP should be much higher and it is being held back as the market is clearly wary of Trice and his autocratic / insider ways..." Nonsense. None of us can know for sure why the SP is where it is but I would posit likely reasons 1. continuing caution among Big Oil over investment I new fields, along with some lingering doubts over FB. 2. Similar caution among Instis re forward PoO. 3.CA continually selling into strength. The above are clearly factors, tho we cannot quantify them. Rt's "autocratic / insider ways" are your construct only, with no evidence to support them. Personally I doubt RT is much in the driving seat at HUR except operationally, at corporate/strategic level it would be surprising if Kerogen were not firmly in charge.

shedful No I know you didn't say it but I felt that was implied. Certainly agree that post FOIL any finance needed must surely come via cashflow, RBL, or farm in, dilution days are surely behind us.

Apples and melons. Maersk assets had FFDs in place and production. HUR is a very different beast, and would not attract anything like that level of valuation, nor woua bidder recognise most our reserves which are still C, not P. As dspp pointed out very clearly, we need to move our assets into P to get anywhere near true value here.

No bitterness, WW. I just think - warrants aside - dspp's post shows the monetisation path clearly, and explains why HUR had to raise and go alone.. I was as disappointed as anyone at the time of dilution as I continued to believe a farm in was close. But this time next year, (Rodney... ) - hopefully much sooner - the issue will be well behind us and all but forgotten.

Can't remember who first posted the link, but thanks to them. Imho an excellent post, from someone who clearly knows how things work at the top. For those yet to read it, it's post no #132941 on this link https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=796&p=132941 Whilst we have some here with financial/market expertise, I respectfully suggest that none of us has shown the insight into top level investment/commercial processes as dspp. He clearly understands the technical but his post sets out clearly how the project will be monetised to best value for shareholders, and why. All those backing CA's rush for a quick exit, take note. My thanks to dspp, and GLA

I haven't followed the FRR story, but certainly have pondered MGW's business model. The default assumption would be that he is paid by the cos he writes about, as there is no other obvious revenue stream. That leaves Malcy's integrity, and more importantly his credibility, as the restraining factors on him pushing duds. i regard him as a good source of (reasonably) credible info, tho of course its DYOR as usual. Imho he seems a straighter beast than TW. It will b interesting to see if he responds ; whilst a response might seem needed, often angafging with the likes of TW merely give them more credibility than they deserve. More puzzlimg is that i have heard say that he does not get paid = or at least, not in all cases - for what he writes, which, if true, bega the Q of where his income does come from.

I've not seem what's been said, but imho, whatever you think of Malcy, he has rather more credibility than does TW. Assuming you mean Tom Winnifrith.

PoO above $72, as well, even b4 the Donald fires his missiles.

Actually.....I retract my statement that there is little in the update. Reading some comments here and looking thru the presentations there are indeed a few things to chew on, and some decent posts here today regarding them. I stand corrected!

SIPP has it, imo, in the phrase "Hurricane are on top of.(it)". Management would not have talked of a possible increase to 30k bpd if there were likely to be constraints, Dr T and team will be well aware of these issues. Like water, wax, and all other "issues" raised previously, I believe GOR is also a distraction, one which management will have carefully considered and assessed b4 projecting a 30k bpd maximum. Early water breakthrough was raised as a concern 2 years ago and was comprehensively addressed both by a direct reply from Dr T and later in the CMD presentation. Wax was similarly raised as a bogeyman and also shot down. I have mot seen the GOR reference but with both wells already flow tested cannot see why it should become a problem at this late stage. We have likely the best technical team on the planet looking at this, and I have every confidence all will be well.

Zak Mir was there too, didn't really speak but seemed close to the organisers.