Member Info for Genghis15

IJWT
Still can't see that.

Much better to get AM finished, get her in Holland to sort the flare stack and turretplate. If (and we don't know) there is any other delay, better she sits in Amsterdam or Lerwick than spending any longer than necessary in Dubai.

Anyone going?

I doubt if I will as saw them last month, and whilst I would still like to go other constraints make it difficult.

But if you are invested here and in striking distance of the capital t would surely be worthwhile.

SS
You sum up the attraction of RBD well.
Likely it may be slow to move even on spud given nature of co, as you say more like a fund in some ways.
Even drill success msay not see the sort of huge rises which might be expected f we were a one trick pony.

But as the asset value increases the SP will move. This has ST catalysts aplenty, but is a LT investment imo.

Having seen the Oilcapital presentation and spoken to Stephen after, I am convinced these guys have a clever financial model.
We need drilling success to show that they are, as their presentation says "geologically led" in choosing their investments, but so far all looks good.

IJWT
"the delay to PBLJ has probably pushed back delivery of Aoka Mizu"

Surely the two are unconnected. Bluewater are incentivised to FOIL, they will want to crack on.

Not up on their website yet, but as part of a write up of CA, smallcap editor Simon Thompson says "Investors have been warming to the merits of HUR, …..trades on a hefty discount to Finncap's risked NAV of 81p."

Consider what has happened. AEX has essentially found that to progress its project it has to give most of it away, presumably no better offers were available. Why?

Capital is wary of Tanzania, as I posted here when Acacia was targeted. potential partners have either melted away or demanded onerous terms, and this is the best that can be done.

The risk/reward looks good to me, tho.

You may b right, who knows. If it does, I will be buying a few more,

This is a binary bet ; if we get a farm in to any of the Irish prospects, it could multiply overnight. If not, it may drift lower.

I reckon that timetable means a completion RNS will likely come on Monday morning..

Next event will be the AM sea trials, then RNS on her departure. Can't be more than a couple weeks away, hopefully.

"oh and Crystal Amber who according to folks on here to be run by a completely stupid megalomaniac (investors chronicle see it differently mind you)."

OK, you and mb a few others have a more positive view of RB than most here. Clearly he has had a disagreement with the BoD which led to a bit of a spat. I would suggest that his behaviour by tweeting and feeding stories to the press was not the behaviour of a serious professional investment manager. "Corporate governance" issues thrown around at the time were never specified.
HUR on the other hand kept quiet, got on with the job, continued to upgrade their CG in line with main market requirements. I've just read that section of the 2018 Annual Report and if there's a co on AIM with as good CG as that I'll be surprised. Not quite up to main market standards yet, mostly regarding NEDs, but likely will be in a few months time.

Anyway, I'm not calling RB "completely stupid megalomaniac". I just find his behaviour puzzlingly unprofessional which even at times seems at odds with the interests of his own investors.

And btw please don't take offence that I've picked on you twice today! You do make some good points and imho a bit of healthy dissent is good for the BB. I just happen to take a different view re RB, and on the risks highlighted by dspp.

Sorry should read
The majors from the data room DO have such access, and are holding off, for the moment, so it is reasonable to speculate that they perceive more risk at this stage ; but we don't really know that. It may just be that they won't pay HUR's price, and that Dr t (and Kerogen0 are playing a very good hand well.

"It’s interesting how little reference is made to the exchanges between experienced engineers on page 25 of the lemonfool forum. Plenty of posts lately recommending people look at the same site for posts re valuations etc but only two I think suggesting we look at the ones referring to possible reservoir performance risks. "
"For the avoidance of doubt-no one I’ve seen post on here is qualified to discount the reservoir risks."

Yes fair enuff. I too think dspp's posts well worth reading.

But as I posted b4, "on reflection it seems to me that the instances of fracture failure/watering quoted happened a long time ago, and in fractured carbonate, not granite. Importantly, The seismic has moved on immensely ; I'll wager that Dr T's understanding of Lancaster is at a different level compared to the examples quoted back in the 80s/90s.

So I'm still feeling pretty confident that the EPS will not disappoint, but dspp may be able to correct me."

dspp 9and his interlocutor over on TLF) are clearly well qualified and knowledgeable, experienced and balanced. Great posts, eloquently put.

But Dr T is the expert ; THE go to man in FB. HUR is using the latest techniques in seismic data and modelling, and that modelling is being verified by Schlumberger, no slouches either. With all respect to dspp, he is quoting analogues in carbonate reservoirs trom decades ago, and he doesn't have access to HUR's data.
So I choose to believe in Dr T ; that doesn't mean there is NO risk, just that it is very low. All imho, of course.
The majors from the data room DO have such access, and are holding off, for the moment

Expect another trump tweet aimed at Saudi b4 long.

Wrong thread, HTL?

Rangers

Atlantic margin is interesting. I keep an eye on EOG for that reason, tho not necessarily for basement potential - that would be a bonus. Certainly the interview leaves the impression Dr T has further tricks up his sleeve.

LW
"Based on real economics, the writer argued that it should always be very low"

He's right. trouble is real economics gets interfered with by a mix of cartels, politics.

BZ "150 = mkt crash territory"
Quite likely. There is some evidence, ignored by mainstream economics, that the US housing crash which triggered the last economic crisis may not have happened without the oil spike. Atm several economies are already slowing a little at current prices, different countries have differing sensitivities.

Very interesting reading the discussion on TLF, both parties clearly qualified and experienced in the field.

Made me wonder if I was a little too sanguine in my 99% confidence in Dr T might be a little overdone.

It might be ; but on reflection it seems to me that the instances of fracture failure/watering quoted happened a long time ago, and in fractured carbonate, not granite. Importantly, The seismic has moved on immensely ; I'll wager that Dr T's understanding of Lancaster is at a different level compared to the examples quoted back in the 80s/90s.

So I'm still feeling pretty confident that the EPS will not disappoint, but dspp may be able to correct me.

WT, what about the low profile "forgotten man" on the BoD?

COO Neil Platt is the man in the driving seat for EPS, as for all design, engineering, and shipping operations. He gives no interviews, makes no tweets, and attracts no attention.

But make no mistake this is our main man at the moment, the whole project rests on him. I bet he will be spending more time in DDW than the other two you mention.

Swampy is sadly correct. he level of opposition will be energised by this, however misguidedly.

The planning process was already hostage to it and this will make it near impossie for local councillors to approve anything without a ministerial overrule, which is itself problematic.

The investment case here relies on offshore Ireland, the onshore stuff a distraction.

Blimey, there's some thin skins on here.....

It was followed by a smiley and is pretty mild compared to what I say to my Glaswegian mate down the pub, and to what he throws back at me.

Banter, just banter.

Sorry forgot the link

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-5918723/MARKET-REPORT-Hurricane-Energy-thrust-limelight-BP-takeover-target.html