Member Info for Genghis15

Only Hugh presented. I was going to try for a word with him at the end but sadly I was called away. fwiw i will not increase at this time, mostly bcos i am overcommitted elsewhere. I retain a small stake bcos you never know if a FI could arrive very soon; my guess is it may be a while. My guess may be wrong! But if Poo remains strong, and my other commitments mature towards the end of 2018, I shall likely be increasing here.

They may not be oil people, but he is Peter Dolan Adviser Dr. Dolan has been involved in the oil and gas exploration industry since 1965 and has considerable experience with a wide range of pre-cash flow assets. He has an extensive network of personal contacts in the industry and is an active member of the Geological Society as well as various professional bodies and charities. Peter co-founded Ophir Energy plc and Ikon Science Limited and numerous other entities which have long since made their exits. He has also invested in early stage companies both within and outwith the oil and gas sector. In his role as Adviser, Peter brings a wealth of experience to the Company.

I would say Inishkea highlighted as lower risk, Porcupine, slightly higher, Padraig higher risk and more expensive as deepwater. Padraig less likely to achieve FI until Poo stays higher for longer, but that's imho, not Hugh's. I can't comment on whether anything he said was new; have only a small stake here and confess I do not always pay close attention, so unsure exactly what was new/old news. Oil Capital will have the presentation videos on their website soon, I imagine, go to http://www.oilcapital.com/conferences in a few days time. The slides he spoke to are the same as the co's corporate plan, here http://www.europaoil.com/documents/EOG13.06.18Final.pdf

I should say also that altho Hugh was bullish on planning permissions for inland sites, citing govt plans for changes to the planning system, I am not. The issues around these sites can often not be solved by permissions. Swampy may be a well informed protester but many are not; these sites attract the usual mob of environmental zealots and full time protesters as well as ill informed local nimbys. The combination, I fear, will in most cases be too much for the authorities to bother facing down, unless the resource on offer is so substantial that the fiscal prize offsets electoral consequences.. In short, the driver of value for this co is offshore. If UK onshore does work, that's a bonus and a backstop, but it is not really the investment case here. Imho

I disagree. What will move the sp is farmin news. Hugh Mackay gave a strong presentation, focussed on the huge potential sp upside in the case of drilling success. This is definitely one to watch, and I have a toe in the water here. but it's not going to fly until a farm in.

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23HUR&src=typd Nothing we couldn't guess re CA selling, I suppose, but the screenshot tells the story I think.

Bob will indeed be all of our rich uncles by then, with any luck.

So who here is going?

"When there's no need for the camp where it currently is, it will be dismantled and cleaned up and everything put back how it was." We3ll, not exactly original...I believe that's what happens after the oilco has done its bit too. Still. no worries, let's just buy it from Arab sheiks and Russian crook and keep ours in the ground.

Bet they don't turn their CH off in protest, tho. "bit of hypocrisy there, don't you think?"

IJWT I know the quote, but our timeline I suggest is rather different. HUR was born from scepticism, has survived pessimism, and the optimism is just blooming. Still a helluva long way to euphoria, but the path looking good.

"I personally think that the SP will hit a new all time high before FOil, maybe even 80-90p, others will think this is mad or not possible and thats ok, - it is my opinion and I see no reason why not, particularly if the POO stays in the 70-75 range, no EPS overspend and Hurricane manage to produce this year" No argument there. With those caveats I should think it nailed on!

Well, ths is where the CA money is going. RB tweet earlier Richard Bernstein ‏ @CrystalAmberRB1 44m 44 minutes ago We continue to buy shares in Fair FX- now with 18.5% of the company. Market forecasts are for £16m of prospective profits. We like both the quality of management and the business model.

Always dangerous to contradict Ricfle on factual matters! Perfectly safe to contradict me on what follows, tho, bcos I claim no real knowledge of MMs practices or ST SP drivers. But when the SP tightens up so much and tests a level for several days running, it seems to me to often presage a breakthrough. We shall see.

The best comment I've seen on this story was "Saudi should say, OK, we'll carry on complying at the level Iraq has been"

"Saudi Arabia boosted daily oil output in May to the highest level since October, " They always do that this time of year, domestic aircon consumption.

As you woukd expect, some very (over0 cautious assumptions in there. I've only started reading but already they are still assuming a 10% cost overrun and a 30 March 2019 startup.

I can't claim to be expert. But for one thing I would not start with 6bn barrels, the high case I quoted earlier. dspp's efforts 9link posted earlier) is as good as any, tho personally I'm not sure about the values per barrel he ascribes. The only thing I'm pretty sure about is that in 12 months from now we will have a successful EPS delivering cashflow and reservoir derisking data, and will have proved up volumes and flow from Lincoln and Halifax. At that point the market will start valuing our resources more appropriately, imho.

extruder I'm not sure about valuations, but the 10bn figure can be justified (sort of) from the RPS CPRs. dswpp's 4.9bn figure includes Typhoon so should be reducedby 1.3bn, tho that does not affect his valuation as he ascribed no value to it. Lancaster CPR high case GOIP is 3.33 bn, the rest 13.868bn, so over 17bn barrels. Yes that's the high case, and it's GOIP. High case resource is total 6.4bn barrels, so 10bn is a bit of a stretch, even if further EPS info and appraisal of the other fields leads to upgrades as they both might. Not impossible, tho, bcos we all know " Big fields get bigger....."

Interesting piece from FT https://www.ft.com/content/ebc6ce3a-6a45-11e8-8cf3-0c230fa67aec