The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Telegraph article referred to by Porky 9 @ 1.15
Lateral flow tests ‘too inaccurate’ to be used in schools, experts say
The Daily Telegraph25 March 2021By Sarah Knapton SCIENCE EDITOR
LATERAL flow testing is too inaccurate to be used in mass screening to enable children to go to school or allow people back to work, experts have said following a major review.
A Cochrane review of 64 studies found that asymptomatic testing only picked up around 50 per cent of cases, and when infection rates were low in the community, picked up far more false positives than real positives.
False results from lateral flow tests may mean that workplaces and schools will be needlessly forced to close, even though the scheme was set up to keep them open, experts cautioned.
The group concluded that mass testing policies had been implemented “without any supporting real-world evidence”. Review author Jon Deeks, Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Birmingham, said it was “shocking” that the Government had allowed the rollout of such a “large, invasive and expensive” testing programme without the data to back it up.
“One of the issues which should have been picked up is these tests work a lot less well in people who are asymptomatic and the Government has not been clear about that,” he said.
“It is being used in ways which actually risk people getting false reassurance when they miss cases, and getting false positives, and that has been a big problem in schools.
“There are instances when whole classes have been sent home, effectively 100 people put into isolation. So I think there are big problems in the way that we’re using this. And when prevalence drops you get more false positives and fewer true positives, that’s a mathematical certainty and there is a point where you should stop.
“We may already be at that point when it means we are actually going to be doing more harm than good. These testing policies have been implemented without any supporting real-world evidence.” The mass testing programme has been rolled out across the education sector, some businesses and workplaces and health and care services.
But the experts estimated that at current prevalence rates of 0.5 per cent, around 72 per cent of positive cases would be wrong. Public Health England defended the testing programme, saying lateral flow picked up cases that would be missed ordinarily, and helped break chains of transmission.
Thank you for your replies eljefegrande and B2
I was aware of the issue of dual listing etc but had read in this article ( https://www.fundamentalasset.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Shares-Avoid-IHT-With-AIM-Stocks-Feb-2015.pdf ) that this was not absolute as in the beige box "what type of businesses qualify" it says:
"When a dual listing is not a dual
listing, at least for HMRC purposes
Shares that are listed on a
‘recognised’ overseas stock
exchange are quoted for
IHT purposes, even if they
are also traded on the
AIM. However,
HMRC also grants
‘unquoted’ status
to certain overseas
exchanges,
therefore investors
shouldn’t
necessarily dismiss an AIM stock just
because it is listed on an overseas
exchange."
Hence the reason I am pursuing this .....although if they decline any more in value we can forget it.
I was led on by Porky's £54 and young Dylan's £90 something to dream ;)
I posted this at 0731 yesterday in relation to a Telegraph article on tax exemption for Aim Stocks:
"I’ve asked before and will ask again has anyone ever established whether Novacyt shares are eligible for Inheritance Tax exemption?. The dual listing should work against this but this is not absolute apparently."
B2HS2L kindly replied at 0800 saying "I would have thought that was one question that NCYT Investor relations should definitely be able to assist you with, even if they refuse to communicate with investors on other subjects."
I therefore wrote to Novacyt explaining the situation and asking for their help....only to get this reply
"I have been advised this is a matter for individual investors to determine based on their own independent advice, not for the company. "
As I had explained that this was not financial advice..... only a statement of fact ....I am surprised and disappointed by this. More importantly for all investors with respect to the SP it would possibly benefit both the company and investors to know and promulgate the answer to this question if it is exempt.
I believe you can ask financial advisors...... so if anyone has done this already I remain very interested in the answer.
Good point B2 ".........I’ll ask and keep you posted.
Thanks
Novacyt mentioned as a serious investment in Telegraph article today on AIM shares and Inheritance Tax.
““Aim companies are far from minnows,” Mr Davies said. More than 20 Aim stocks are worth at least £1bn. Some of the most popular include drinks firm Fever-tree, fashion brand Boohoo and more recently biotech business Novacyt, which produces Covid tests.”
I’ve asked before and will ask again has anyone ever established whether Novacyt shares are eligible for Inheritance Tax exemption?. The dual listing should work against this but this is not absolute apparently.
Link here for those who want to read it!
http://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Novacyt-RD-Update-24.02.2021-ENGLISH.pdf
Building on B2HS2L excellent post at 11.28 what if we turn this around and make a positive out of the LFT announcements and BJs love for them.
A lifetime of pushing an environmental agenda in a FTSE 250 company with other priorities has taught me sometimes you have to roll with it to get your point across.
So as Sunday thought for today WHAT IF:
+We stop infighting and accept the governments love and or need for LFT's for whatever reason.
+We use this to address known weaknesses (Accuracy etc) in their case and positives in ours.
+Point out that Britain is also leading the way in Genomic sequencing AND testing. Something that is getting huge coverage at the moment (Sharon Pea****) has been feature internationally and nationally.
+Maybe it too late for Monday announcements by BJ but what if someone Vanv? with media or government contacts could persuade HMG that instead of making a flawed announcement which will be attacked by the media and science about JUST LFTS they could make a two pronged statement celebrating both this within a certain context AND a home grown WORLD BEATING situation where we lead the globe in Geneomic sequencing AND TESTING. (sorry for the caps but yes I am shouting....anyone remember the poster months ago who would rant if anyone did this?). Perhaps followed by a Phase 2 announcement (if there is one coming anyway) which shows that all sides are covered and GB is leading the international fight back with a well rounded action plan.
An old friend of mine used to say "You can catch more wasps with honey than vinegar" (one for you troublesome!)
The yet to be jabbed.....more prevalent across the channel?
With thanks again to Dannyleeds for posting I have now listened to this
https://audioboom.com/posts/7792441-savannah-energy-new-gas-contract-vadim-alexandre-on-covid-testing-russ-mould-on-silver and for anyone interested the most relevant bit is from 09.00 to 30.00 mins approx.
It is almost a week ago and the interviewer obviously thinks a lot about himself and his opinions but it was interesting to me on two fronts;
1) listening to someone's contrary negative view of future testing needs and the future to companies like Novacyt.
2) Hearing the counterpoint from SPAngel and perhaps appreciating more of the value that a broker may bring in defending the company in situations where it can't do it itself.
GLA DYOR
Thanks Danny
Is it possible to post a link please Danny
@Uk2day thank you for posting the Investors Champion Article.
I am particularly interested in the issue of whether Novacyt shares are eligle for IHT (Inheritance Tax Relief). We debated it some months ago on this board and doubt crept in about whether it would be eligible because of the dual listing.
I appreciate that in any case they have to be held for 2 years to qualify but as a confident LTH ...that is not an issue.
Following the links in the article you posted you eventually get to an AIM IHT eligibility tool which requires registration and payment.
I therefore wondered if anyone
A - Had already done this for Novacyt...if so would you mind sharing the answer please?
B - If not had any experience or knowledge of the efficacy of this process as I don’t want to waste what’s left of my hard earned money after Friday ;)
C - Had views or knowledge of whether (if eligible) the shares have to have been held for two years ON AIM or have to be IN AIM at the time of death. I have in mind here a possible future move to other exchanges.
Thanks in anticipation, GLA
I’m not......been here since last February......but still care about others.
Remember when we rallied round to get your AGM resolutions through?
How about a bit of support here against the MMs robbing people.
Or de raMpers even ...but I quite like smell checks first version
The vultures (de rappers) are out today.
Must mean there is something worth fighting for!!
PS Sorry for double post site was playing up!
Perhaps because they don’t know what a government contract is !!
Perhaps because they don’t know what a government contract is !!
@KBM20 "
Bought my whole allocation at £12.13 on 26th October, within minutes the sp fell away! I've held and added, intending to hold. Thanks to all the great contributors on this board.
GLA
Well done for sticking with it .....I really do hope that your faith is rewarded. I know how hard it is having experienced the two worst drops when it plummeted 30- 50% but hopefully you will look back on this from new heights soon (and a more comfortable seat!)