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Biffa,

Not only did they take a dump in the bed, the puked in it at the same time. Very talented.

I agree with your post. Ofer said a number of times (during the conferences with Needham, RJ and RBC) they're guiding very conservatively.

He also said they'll know a lot more about how the quarter is going within the next few weeks (during the Needham conference on 10 January). When he was talking with Laura Martin, they were discussing the timing of digital ad buys: 'Advertisers can push their digital spend out towards the latter part of the quarter (unlike linear TV buys), but not so late they won't see the results until after the end of the quarter'. Advertisers want to be able to measure the spend against the results intra-quarter. This is why I am 'sticking to my story' about waiting longer to see how the quarter is unfolding so they can give better guidance.

Of course Amobee is taking a lot of their time as well.

We're due, at any moment, an announcement about when they'll release Q4 and YE 2022 numbers with the CC.

I am sure Ofer and Sagi want as much visibility as possible into Q1 numbers for a better forecast, so they're holding off as long as they can. ('That's my story and I'm sticking to it' about why they're so late. Then again, they're always relatively late...but this is pushing it.)

We closed in London at the equivalent of $7.8197.

We closed in the States at $8.02, up 4.02%. Volume is weak, but it usually is for TRMR in the States. Nobody over here knows about us. Almost nobody here knows about PERI.

This will change, for both companies, if we execute.

BTW: I've said this numerous times, but I don't care, because I feel the need to repeat it:

TRMR is by FAR the cheapest in the space. If we can show signs of growth, look out above.

Gotta go with Radium's 17:23hr post below.

TTD crushing it, up ca 25% on earnings news. MGNI up ca 13-14% because they do a boatload of biz with TTD. PUBM also up significantly (ca 8-9%), they also do a fair bit of biz with TTD.

We are in the right space at the right time.

Fingers crossed TRMR is playing along as well. Looking forward to finding out....and adding a bit more today to an already totally bloated position in TRMR. ("Totally bloated position" relative to the rest of my portfolio.)

jonhas,

Good luck with that market timing thing.

Personally, if I was looking to transition my energy holdings into more ad tech (which I am not), I'd take a tiny bit of energy off the table a bit at a time and use the funds to layer into more ad tech, also a bit at a time. That way I'd never be 100% right, but I'd never be 100% wrong either.

Very few people are lucky enough to sell at the top or buy at the bottom, and I am sorry to say I am not one of them.

I meant to say 'brands as a media company' below when mentioning what sort of biz for which PERI is shopping.

CTV growth, that's why I am here. I also agree, migration of Amobee customers and the combination of the technologies could be huge---great cross selling possibilities, etc.

I've listened all the calls and conferences more than once. I get what TRMR mgt. are selling investors and why. Now they (we) need to execute. TRMR my second largest holding behind PERI.

MGNI very big in CTV. One of the biggest SSPs in CTV. MGNI my third largest holding, but I've owned it for years. My average cost in MGNI is in the 3s, so I am not complaining about not selling when it was in the 60s (I am admittedly the world's worst seller).

PUBM my fourth largest holding. To say I am overexposed in ad tech is the understatement of the decade.

PERI is an anomoly in the space...so far it seems they have something special. It's very hands on, so I am not sure how scaleable it is. They're looking to change their acquisition model and buy another business, not for the technology, but for the businessitself. This in order to scale. This could be in CTV, brands/media as an ad company, or digital out of the house (DOOH). I believe their priorities are in that order.

Tremor running with the rest of the pack when it comes to macro-environmental headwinds. When the ad tech macroenvironment turns around, look out above (or so I've bet).

Hey jonhas,

Your point was not lost on me.

I can't disagree with your take on how the market may perceive the organic vs. pro-forma presentation as presented by mgt. Virtually all US companies would break out pro-forma vs. organic for the full year following an acquisition, but TRMR mgt. have already told us a few times they won't do this, that they consider "growth" from the combination of the two as "organic", which is absolutely, positively, total rubbish.

Jonhas,

About PERI 14% growth number. I first heard this during the Needham conference which was with Moaz and Laura Martin in early January of this year. I was a bit surprised by it at the time, and not surprised during the CC since I'd heard it before. Then I recalled during the Q2 CC Moaz was asked what our growth was pro-forma. The answer was 20%. What surprised me was Laura Martin's surprise at the 14% number during the CC. She interviewed Moaz one on one, in person, when he first told her that number last month. She asks a lot of stupid questions in many of the companies in which I am invested which she covers. She's not nearly as smart as I once thought.

About PERI"s growth number looking anemic vs TRMR. How do you get there? I get TRMR growth, Pro-forma, of ca. 9.5%.

Note: PERI has a smidge under $430 million on the balance sheet. They do have an imminent payment for earnouts of ca $34 million, but much if not all of that will be covered by FCF during Q1. If you do a comp for relative values using EV rather than market cap you get different numbers...obviously.

As far as expectations: look at the track records of the two companies over the past year. PERI always under-promises and over-delivers. For the past three quarters in a row, TRMR has over-promised and under-delivered...in a huge way for the past two reports. Mgt. screwed the pooch a number of times now. I am sure you know the saying: "fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me". The market's not going to believe TRMR mgt. until their trust is earned, and that's going to take a while.

Radium, not that it matters, but that was Moaz (the CFO) who told her we're using the same model.

Hey Mal,

How funny. I was waiting for year-end results posted by TRMR to do what you just did, compare the two companies' SBC side by side.

Perion getting spanked due to CEO stepping down on 1 August.

At this point, it's all about their guidance.

Radium:

RE: "But if it ever was to come about, wouldn’t this marriage be one very attractive combo?"

In a word, yes.

A few more words: The more I waste my time thinking about it, the more I like the idea, for a number of reasons. The main reasons being the complimentary aspects of a merger. They are significant.

Jonhas,

Agreed, but there's a reason for PERI's stellar performance: Superior mgt and what I believe must be a superior product and approach. TRMR's performance at this stage appears to be going along with market trends. PERI is truly a standout.

That being said, TRMR has been working on what PERI started a few years prior to TRMR with our (TRMR's) DMP. PERI has the iHub, TRMR has the DMP. I pray to Money they both get it right, grab share, grow like a weed, and make us all a lot of Money.

While there is a lot of overlap, there are complimentary products/approaches that I think may work well together. I know, I'm back to the hot 20-year-old coed to whom I am now grandpa.

Below: By "it was discussed", I meant PERI's search for an acquisition target was discussed during the CC, as it often is, there was nothing about TRMR specifically.

Hey Radium,

Although I doubt it would happen, I keep thinking about the possibilities of a combination of PERI and TRMR. Today I wrote PERI IR to ask a few questions, to which I added 'several investors I know wonder if you guys ever considered a marriage between TRMR and PERI'. Then I went to the transcript for the last CC because I knew it was discussed, and I wanted to refresh my memory on what, exactly, was said.

Check out the below quote from my best pal Doron (Doron Gerstel, CEO PER) during the Q3 CC when asked about their search for an acquisition:

"So I think that there is great way organically to grow the business as I mentioned in the call. In terms of the acquisition, yes, we identified 2 areas where we are want -- the CTV is definitely remain high. We truly believe that there are some very, very interesting company in this domain. We're going after those companies. We are -- where we are today and what we are -- wants to accomplish this needs to be a company that definitely represents a leadership position in the domain, not less than that. It's not going to be a technology acquisition. It's definitely a business acquisition, which have prominent first tier agencies and customer."

Geez...seems to me TRMR may fit that bill, especially with the new Amobee acquisition, pretty well. (To come back to earth I remind myself I am not doing any hot 20 year old coeds any longer, but that doesn't stop me from thinking about it.)

Actually, it was Radium's post...thanks.

Biffa's below post increased my heartbeat...in a very good way.

Thanks for the added energy.

The Lake Street Capital coverage popped up on my screen at 06:37hr Pacific Time.

We're up ca 4% in the States, currently at $8.49 on relatively decent volume (relatively decent for TRMR ADS units...it's always anemic), above London's closing value of $8.18.