Member Info for Gavster-NBC

Hi Zac
The problem with that view is that the dividends of the company will ultimately dictate the share price. The world cannot be allowed to stand still, it now needs more oil than ever. Oil companies may have to offset their footprint, but that's fine, they can do it with carbon capture, R&D new power creation, solar and wind farms. They could buy stakes in companies like SSE or own funds like Bluefield Solar.
IMO The only real reason the share price would not reach 500p plus once the dividend returns to 2019 levels is because inflation will kick in and the entire market will use lower PER's and higher yields to determine share prices.
Poor press and image will be a dampener but not enough to double BP's yield.
As an example, BAT still has investors and a return and that's a company indirectly responsible for countless millions of people suffering and dying.

Hi adv. Increased my holding value this time too.
I can only see that the profit taking has been quite wide after hitting the pre-pandemic levels of the SP.
The yield is too good to miss out on again, If the SP holds up after the summer, I may sell and chase some other portfolio ex-divs due in August/Sept. Cheers GL.

Hi Bonker, IMO the SP is held back due to the USD/ZAR rate. Income is in US$, costs and debt is in ZAR.
Have a look at a comparison chart. The rate at the moment is countering the uplift from gold price.
A reversal in the rate will make PAF's moves accentuated to the GP.
The Debt however is again reducing fast, and the prospect of PAF's proven technology being used on Mintails, together with a higher dividend at Xmas due to the lack of debt, the sky will be the limit, but it's a few years away and PAF has always moved very slowly, and has also been slow top react. PAF is a quiet place to invest, but hugely rewarding.
Also.. The CEO bought a vast amount of shares just months ago, a million dollars worth or something, I'd have to check back to see exact figures, It's on this BB in a post.
His buy was at average of 21p if I remember, but check what this price is now, as his shares were also in ZAR, so possibly an average of 19p now as the rate is now lower.
Divi at Xmas, 40% of cashflow.
Cheers and GL

I'm back in at 94p, after selling at 98p and collecting the dividend, which will now be reinvested.
The chart looks like it might go lower but the yield is over 8% so happy to sit tight and reinvest the divs.
New retail park, NAV of 95.87 mid January and if the markets stay calm, a couple of months uplift with the run up to the next ex-div, end of July.
Cheers all and GL

All on track, dividend paid for and scheduled, new wind farms funded and being built.
Nothing in there that on first read through worries, will keep a core and look to trade my holding higher using the peaks over the coming year.
Cheers and GL

Hi Zac. On 20k shares 1,6% is £1000. So yes it's worth trading if possible and BP provides enough liquidity.
Well done Mojo. I was overweight on BP so also sold some of my holdings at 316 today, some has gone into other shares but I've kept half in cash to reinvest here if the SP moves favourable. I may also switch that money to RDS, which has underperformed to BP recently.
Cheers and GL.

Hi 13martyn13
I somehow timed it right with a second and my last buy before ex-div just before midday.
Looking good today.
Cheers for your answer, I read back through the same paragraph.

""In spite of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Company has delivered excellent performance during 2020. The Company's revenues have increased by 11% and PBTA is up 15% over 2019 driven by larger demand for our materials to meet increased banknote demands of one of our existing central bank customers as well as equipment sales to this same customer."

"Our two decade long relationship with a major world central bank continues to drive the introduction of more advanced products and an increasingly steady stream of hardware sales which could result in the combined development and manufacture of sensors worth over $50MM from 2019-2025."

"These highly stable revenues underpin our growth and enable us to continuously innovate with products that could lead to more explosive growth in the coming years."

"The Board therefore believes that the Company, by achieving key business milestones, will continue to perform well and has excellent prospects for maintaining strong earnings in 2021 and beyond."

"Finally, the Board of Directors will be extending the share buy-back authorization of up to 4,500,000 common shares through the end of March 2022, under the same terms as announced on April 10, 2019. A total of 846,000 common shares have already been purchased and retired under this authority."

Considering how this rate has a big impact and works against Pan African's earnings, the share price is holding up extremely well.
A reversal in the trend of this exchange rate back up to 19 will see PAF's market cap go up accordingly, even double.
Definitely a buy at anything under 20p.
Inflation, if it kicks in will be another big force against the share price, as it will lower the way the market values PAF but as a dividend paying investment the returns should be excellent to hold through any coming turbulence, as gold goes high.
I don't think anyone would mind a share price of 15p if the dividend was 3p, as an extreme example.
Let's hope we do not get walloped back to the early 70's, high inflation and low PERs.
If it happens, then the west controlling inflation to a max of 5% will be fine.

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=ZAR

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/123.asp
Why Are P/E Ratios Higher When Inflation Is Low?

https://inflationdata.com/articles/2018/04/27/inflation-affect-price-gold/
How Does Inflation Affect the Price of Gold?

Looks good on first read. Looks like they will ride the CV-19 storm and their foot will be back on the accelerator once through.
I can't say I'm overjoyed with the move towards defence but they have to follow the money tree in these times.

Hi Nevrsellshell

The spanner in the route back to 500p plus with a return to around 10 cents per quarter dividend is inflation.
I've yet to look research the relationship properly with actual figures. Essentially the days of P/E's of 20 or yields averaging 4% which the market is currently valuing BP, which would essentially double today's share price upon the dividend going back up, are over.
In the extreme, some valuations of shares in the early 70's were based on a P/E of only 1 !
I think a share price of around 50p for BP is unrealistic though as National Banks will be doing all they can to stop inflation going back to double digits.
As/when/If the POO goes up to past 100$ as inflation bites, it will add to the earnings and strength to the SP to counter a negative inflation effect on the SP. .

That said, I am preparing myself for the share price to stay where it is even when POO and earnings rise.

Here is an interesting interview by CRUX Investor with a successful fund manager which includes inflation. Towards the end he goes a bit doomsayer, which I am skeptical of, but thought provoking nevertheless.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPz9oOAko8k

Cheers and GL.

What an absolute bargain, well done PAF.
Good update, onwards upwards.

https://www.miningmx.com/news/gold/44286-pan-african-sets-out-r50m-option-over-mothballed-mintails-prospects-west-of-johannesburg/

Hi 13Martyn13
I've also bought about the same price.
As a new investor and out of interest do you or anyone else reading this see their success last year as being in anyway due to the pandemic or in spite of the pandemic ?

Yep, Sold as well. 227.5, still in profit and will take the divi when it arrives. Glad to be out now completely.
Tescos had a golden opportunity to become the darling of the FTSE by increasing the yield and making for a share price before the consolidation of 300p plus, paying down debt and pension deficit.
Instead the BOD chose to line their own pockets, trash the market cap, trash the share price and lower the critical yield making dividend, and trash shareholder value.
Can't understand why any shareholder would be happy with this merde show.
Cheers and GL.

Hi Retiredbanker.
I sold a few today at 40p, shares that I had bought in the 10s, but I was overweight after averaging down, buying years ago at 5p (50p todays equivalent).
I think the rise is also quite fast but remember the mining is happening right now.
My personal view is that GAL didn't need to raise that amount of cash at such a terribly low price, but then now we're fully funded and the Canadian gold investors including Mr Sprott's followers and friends will be spreading the word and taking positions.
We could drop back to the early 30s but IMO that might not last too long.
If you note the last quarterly results.
For only the the last week in March, the high grade of 5.7 g/t gold was crushed.
So if they process a similar tonnage 6000t, say at 5.5g/t for a whole quarter, then they'll be mining 1000 ounces a quarter, then add the other two shifts with staff coming back to work, then all of a sudden the mine is processing at a rate of 12000 ounces a year (14m a year in revenues) , like it did before.
The new plans kick in, which will now happen soon than later, and we're looking at revenues of of 10's of millions a year. Our current market Cap, with the new share number 73,270,468 from the placing news is still only £30m.

So IMO if you're planning to trade, be confident with any dips, I was caught out twice recently trying to trade POLY and EVR, both of which proceeded to have unstoppable rises after I sold, so I'm holding through with GAL.
I have waited 10 years after buying my first holding in Galantas, so another couple of years is not long to wait for a big return.
Cheers and GL.

Hi mags1444, lol )
Yes. Tesco held up well against such a negative day in the markets, so I've held through, on the basis that the FTSE uplift going back through 7000 with CV-recover, will provide enough to counter the ex-div drop. We'll see.
Fortunately a gold share I'm in went up dramatically allowing me trade the other investment I wanted, rather than sell Tesco, so now to hold and wait for the 236-240 equivalent.

At which point I'll decide to hold to my next level of 120, top slice or sell and take the profit.
Have to say, Seplat is impressing. From the Outlook for 2021 paragraph in the accounts.
50,000 boepd works out as annual revenue over $1.1billion or more like 2018 levels when the SP was 150p.
This is before Anoh in 2022. Compelling reasons to hold through and reinvest the divs.

"For 2021 we expect to produce an average of 48,000 - 55,000 boepd, taking into account the impact of OPEC+ quotas. We continue to hedge against oil price volatility and expect a higher proportion of revenues to come from long-term gas contracts at stable prices.
We have significant cash resources and will continue to manage our finances prudently in 2021, expecting to invest $150 million of capital expenditure across the full year, with nearly $33 million already invested. We remain confident that our ongoing cost-cutting initiatives and prudent management of cash will enable further reductions in debt, whilst supporting dividend payments and investment for growth.
Following its successful funding, the completion of the ANOH project remains a major priority. Although we expect some COVID-19 related delays to push completion into early 2022, following a cost optimisation programme we now expect the project to cost no more than $650 million, substantially below the $700 million budget previously stated at Final Investment Decision.
Proposal to change name to Seplat Energy PLC
We are seeking shareholder approval to change our name to Seplat Energy PLC to reflect the future direction of the Company. The change of name will be accompanied by a new corporate brand identity that we plan to unveil at the Seplat Energy Summit in September. Before that, we intend to host a Capital Markets Day on 29 July 2021 to outline the Company's strategic direction and its plans to develop its New Energy business."

OK, I'm in.
I really like the look of this company. The new R&D, the contracts, surviving into a post pandemic UK will be nothing but good for the company as well as the SP.
IMO the "return to normality' factor will compensate for any possible 'drift' between recovery news.
Cheers and GL.

Let's hope this provides enough uplift to stop the SP going down with the rest of the market.
FTSE right now is opening up 60 points down. UK is positive wrt to CV19 recovery so we could trend upwards from a small gap down.
My target price to sell Tesco before ex-div is 236, which is now looking pretty optimistic.
We'll see. Cheers and GL.

Looks like the secrets out...

Share price i got was $0.03875 and the NAV as per last accounts is $0.27
That's the headline and a reason for buying but it is desperate stuff for this company, needing to raise equity and the SP is rockbottom.
The Airline industry coming back online after the pandemic will save DPA.
With a 50% dilution the uplift possible is 2000%, but the worst that can happen is a sell off and a several 100% return on my investment.
Sounds too good to be true, it probably is, so I have invested only what I can afford to lose.
Cheers all and GL.