Member Info for Gavster-NBC

oops these were wrong way round
BP's production Q4 2019 Group production: 3,781 mboe/d
BP's production Q1 2021 Group production: 3,268 mboe/d

The last time Brent oil price had 8 days over £50 pb was 2nd Jan 2020.
BP ADR was >39$ (todays equivalent 459p)
BP LSE was >490p
BP's production Q4 2019 Group production: 3,268 mboe/d
BP's production Q1 2021 Group production: 3,781 mboe/d
Production down by 15%
BP Share price in US$ down by 42%

Interestingly the benefit from buyback compared to dividend, is currently is about the same. See below.
Despite this though I still favour an increase in dividend. BP is surely making the profit to warrant it and it would drive the SP higher.

Current Market Cap (MC) = £65,408m Shares in issue = 20,238m
EG:
£250m on buyback @323.2p is 77.4m Shares = New Share price with same MC = 324.43 p a profit of 1.23p
£250m on dividends between 20,238m shares = 1.24p
https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/commodities/BRT-GBP-history.html
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BP./4q19-part-1-of-1-c0w3m40hie327ev.html
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BP./1q21-sea-part-1-of-1-j7d0ytzmgycrsk9.html

Sorry for twice post.
Good point Stockyready, however the market could well react more when the numbers actually happen.
The SP here for example would already be much higher if our expected future was already priced in.

Looking at the ADR chart in US$, the SP is steadily rising, IMO a true breakout from our 16 month dip will be confirmed when the ADR price reaches $28.50, and the next stop will be $30. At todays rates that's 335p moving up to 353p.
Not a time to sell. The markets are still driven by the gas guzzling USA and their vaccination program is casting CV19 away. The numbers of the Trumping Anti-Vax Squad though really large, will still benefit from the rest of the country being jabbed. Since the conditions have changed regards oil prices with Brent >£50, pressure will mount on Looney to increase shareholder value properly with an increased dividend. Market speculation will be abound leading into Q2 results.
Cheers &GL

Looking at the ADR chart in US$, the SP is steadily rising, IMO a true breakout from our 16 month dip will be confirmed when the ADR price reaches $28.50, and the next stop will be $30. At todays rates that's 335p moving up to 353p.
Not a time to sell. The markets are still driven by the gas guzzling USA and their vaccination program is casting CV19 away. The numbers of the Trumping Anti-Vax Squad though really large, will still benefit from the rest of the country being jabbed. Since the conditions have changed regards oil prices with Brent >£50, pressure will mount on Looney to increase shareholder value properly with an increased dividend. Market speculation will be abound leading into Q2 results.
Cheers &GL

Zac0_4
Did you really expect a fall in one day ?! Maybe Bitcoin is more suited for you than BP and discussing Nasdaq. Markets can be dinosaurs and the tax treaty hasn't even been written yet. If you really think that large modern tech companies will not be paying more tax , forced to hoard less and this will not affect their share prices then you're welcome to and GL with your investing.

Helloooooo. -- Anyone here ?
Just bought in at 28p, which is 85% of the NAV, with an 8% dividend due in August, going by the level of last dividend, to be announced in several weeks. Last year :
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BLP/dividend-declaration-f9p1kstycfnnxfr.html
Blue Planet Investment Management Ltd announces that at close of business on 04 June 2021 the unaudited Net Asset Value (Cum-income) for the above trust was 33.54 pence per share. Investment values are calculated using BID prices.
BID 24p ASK 29p
Cheers All and GL.

Zac. It should be perfectly obvious as to what breakout I was referring to.

BP, is doing well. The ADR chart shows the SP has broken out of the GBP chart 325p equivalent area, its touching the previous highs of the time when it bounced to 370p on the GBP chart, which would be roughly the current price had the US$/GBP rate stayed the same. IMO the ADR is more reflective of the company as it's in US$, BP accounts in US$, is a global corporation, and the rate has gone up since the SP was stuck in 325, 325p is now equivalent to early 2020's 360p or so judging from the ADR to GB BP charts.
Does BP have it's house in order wrt to avoiding corporation taxes ? As far as I know it does...
I can imagine those companies, like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon who avoid paying tax in the countries where the revenue is earned will get battered by the markets. Taxes of 0% becomes 15%. This may be a long awaited pin that bursts some of the Wall St bubble.
Money could well flow into the more "Honest" companies, but if there is a correction on these companies, BP's EPS will not change so ride any turbulence.

Oil price in GBP is now at pre-pandemic levels.
How many days in a row does Brent need to be above £50 for Looney to come under pressure from large shareholders ?
Leopards don't change their spots, BP is a dividend payer.

When this rate shows sign of stability or rising, the PAF SP should go up significantly IMO.
Currently at 13.65, but strong support at 13.1.
Anyone else looking at the USD/ZAR chart ?
Gold Price in ZAR a different chart to USD, at 26000, long way from the 36000 top. In USD 1875 not that far from 2050.
These rates combined with a dip in GP provide a significant buying opportunity.
Debt always lowering and ounces mined looking towards over 200k pa.
Even with rates low, a stronger South African economy will be nothing but good and still point PAF towards a MC of well above £500m. Compare this MC to some of the peers on the FTSE and PAF remains, as always undervalued.
So shhhhhh... Buy and collect the DIV at Xmas which is surely going to be good this year.
Cheers GL.

For a company with only 45 million shares in issue, just before ex-dividend, over a million shares sold in three trades is pretty significant. If this is part of the buyback scheme, then it's a big jump up from 100k chunks. Does this require a declaration though still under 3%..

02-Jun-21 13:51:52 158.00 300,000 Sell* 155.00 165.00 474.00k O
02-Jun-21 13:46:51 158.00 100,000 Sell* 155.00 165.00 158.00k O
02-Jun-21 16:49:48 158.6585 250,000 Sell* 155.00 165.00 396.65k O

IMO the SP is just being magnetic to the recent placing price of 596.
Whenever there is a placing there is always plenty of profit taking.
Patience for us retail.. Again..
Cheers n GL.

Definitely. Brent price is over 70$ and back over £49.

Hi Zac.

"The above is based on a brent price of 55$ per barrel. If oil price remains higher than their forecast then maybe (maybe!) we might see a small increase in dividend at some point. But it will have absolutely nothing to do with the share price!"

But the share price level will have absolutely loads to do with any announcement to dividend level.

Hi Spikey. "major market participants tend to focus on the total return over time"
For BP, that's the dividend. It's the main driver of the SP here. The current SP level, and even its movements over the last ten years practically prove it.
For may other companies, and different sectors, it is a combination and sometimes nothing to do with a divi. Of course.

I received mine. Interactive Investor ISA.
Maybe chase them up , or check other currencies.

Zac0_4.
"The market prices a share based on future projected earning not on how much dividend it pays!"
For BP, this is incorrect.
This is the FTSE 100 energy sector. Investors in BP buy shares based upon return, and the return is what the dividend will be, and the yield is a measure of that return. Returns are what count most to pension funds.
Dividend going up, so will the SP. Which is why there is so much interest in BP and RDS now.
Dividend going down, so will the share price, just as it did in 2020 when BP announced the reduction in dividend and after the spill, when it cancelled the dividend altogether.
The return is currently around 5%. So no surprise we are around 300p.
Inflation could affect this in a major way, as yields go up with inflation.
BP's business plan is for decades, many investors' lifetimes.
The buyback slightly increases the dividend per share, or rather keeps it free from dilution.
In a nutshell. BP is currently way above expectations for Q2 however the SP is weighed down because the dividend has not been adjusted upwards. Any inkling of a dividend increase and the SP will shoot up.
Cheers and GL

zac ,licker, haha. Hilarious.
Debt target reached, Brent near $70, selling high production cost assets, enough cash to waste on share buyback schemes.
BP will increase the dividend, decrease debt or invest in more green projects etc, it will be a combination.

Hi Zac.
It should be no mystery that the current share price yield also shows a dividend yield broadly around 5%
Do you really think that the share price here will stay the same if the dividend became 30p a year ? Of course not, it would leap to 500 to 600.
If inflation becomes 5%, and interest rates to match, then stock yields would need to be around 10%, so in that respect, the SP would stay the same if the dividend doubled.
All this is within investopedia and multitudes of online articles, unless you know something nobody else does..