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The annual reports were also interesting.
We know deposit is uninhabbited ( big plus). Close to roads with access for power. Shallow open pit with consistent grade.
About all you can ask for. If you compare that to other projects it sounds ideal.
The most interesting fact
We had 4 law suits against them and they agreed to give us license if we dropped the law suits.
I am curious to know what arguments were made by GOR at that time. Because these should then be invalid. Hopefully they used same arguments later
Having invested in junior minors i know it is a pain i the a""@. Fundraising, technical issues, unforseen capex, volatile commod prices.
The fact you can have a 50/50 on the return of a huge mine without lifting a finger. Not sure why others are not interested.
The execution/ dilution risk of a small company messing up must be around 40pct and the upside is not 10x
Even if you get vat. As you expand output you will pay more and it will get stuck again.
You need customers who are willing to support the credit cycle. Pay a bit upfront.
Also companies willing to give you some credit when you buy things.
Without this cashflow will kill them. Most other companies try and lock in strategic offtakes.
These offtakers want the output and are supportive. Tgr is still acting like a small trading company. Bit here bit there
Wrong mindset
As people who invested here we know the history not just the headlines. You can check everything
1. In recent prrsentation they said they had capacity for ebita. But they did not imply they hit it.
2. Ceo said no equity raise on presentations even nearly laughing when question came up. In the results they stated they were looking at a convertible which is dilution.
3. Banks will not lend unless you are ebita positive. They do not care about the assets, only profitable assets.
4. We could not even meet convertible coupon with cash.
All facts above can be verified. Long term case is good if they can imcrease output but they need working capital and money to buy concentration units.
Basically great prospects but without cash they are stuck and are in big trouble until someone gives cash
I have spent more time researching and it is quite interesting.
The key 3 arguments for not giving the PL seem to be easy to prove. It also seems in the past the gov even promised to give a license in return for us dropping our law suits.
The biggest event might be another lcm case greenx concluding positively.. hot money might flow here as people follow the same strategy
Agree.
How they managed to put themselves in a situation where they have couple if 100k to run the business is beyond belief.
Doing pr saying they will be 8% of global market and no thought to go raise some money to keep the lights on.
How can you trust any expansion promise by them!. Nobody will give them the finance to go bigger because ceo does not see issues that are in his face.
Thinks expanding is great idea because of resource but forgets the money he pays is what he needs to run his business
They need to be ebita positive for bank debt.
Clearly they are not getting it. Ceo is having to give personal guarantees.
Ramp up requires concentration units. Ebita requires production
Maybe somebody lends them the cash but so far no takers
Https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-production-by-country
Dbush
I noticed the goverment does flip between 2 parties every 5 yrs. So maybe the same party was blocking them in past.
However, settling it and blaming the former party is often a good political strategy. That is why i am quite interested in the reaction to a potential law suit on the ground in india.
Thinking in a similar way to you
Thanks for being constructive :)
Personally i would be interested if the change of gov has changed dynamics.
It damages can be revised upwards and downwards during hearing inline with commodity prices of blue sky discovery.
Also if interest accrues at spot or past. Given usd libor + 2pct is 6pct on maybe 1bn. Might be worth an ask.