Member Info for Gallmat

My comments were based on the situation that storage is not allowed. So what did I say wrong?

There is also an assumption that the production is only for 180 days a year.

So you conviently only produce gas during the cold periods. Do we really think gas platforms open and close at will. So what are the staff doing for 6m on furlong.

Sorry to post again. But the last thing I want is people to be mislead.

The ceo is also very active in communication and trying to attract investment. If that 100m npv was out of date, do we not think he might just update his presentation or mention it In the Sunday roast, why would you not upgrade your potential npv from 100m to 2bn?

This did annoy me. As a sanity check

The post is talking about a 2bn NPV from a 150m usd investment.

If you were an equity investor who could spent 150m usd and make 2 billion on an approved project. Would you just sign a non binding MOU.

Nope, you would bite their hand off and get your check book out.

Think about who is being objective in posts.

L

My comment on the share price falling is nothing to do with intrinsic value. But logically people are buying this for the storage as well, if we get denied you would expect some to sell so it was rational.

I also said even if it fell it would probably bounce back as the stated NPV from the company is 100m

I do not ramp or deramp. This post shows you data from the company. You can take a posters view or data from the company. I am objective

https://x.com/Mark42367885/status/1897973688701419651?t=5wXXtzatfXyMvF3D8MUlGw&s=19

One thing I would say is when people are talking to you about the revenue of a project that is just to make it sound a big number. What about costs.

O and G is renowned for the high tax regime ( see below).

Each to their own and I wish all good luck.

I would say if you read the post saying worst case is 100m gbp vs a market cap or a 10x is hardly being negative.

https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/regulatory-information/exploration-and-production/taxation/

You may say you do not trust the 100 npv figure for gas extraction.

Given it is from the company in their first presentation on their website I wonder why?

I have never said the storage is not valuable or the other calculations. Only that the worst case scenario ( said by company not me) is 100m. Npv for the gas at marram

Hi guys.

I have emailed. I always try to speak to the company so it was not bother for me.

I will update you with any response and also if I get no response

Many thanks for the information so far.

Regards

I am happy to email the CEO. Spoken to 4 in the last year

I spent a day on this. My conclusion is it needs big picture thinking.

If big funds are interested and debt is in demand. You probably have some reasonable leverage over needing payments over future projects etc.

Dilution is a worry, but you would hope lessons learnt are very valuable. Also not having to establish these relationships for future projects.

My original questions focused on the CEO. If you can trust his shareholder creation skills then blue sky thinking is easier. If the track record is not so good you have to worry about short term challanges

Also the fact it might drop 40pct without a storage permit does not imply that is where it might stay in longer term. With a 100m npv gas extraction project approved there is a good chance maybe that would underwrite the current share price.

I have looked at far more gold stocks than oil/gas so cannot put my finger on this part of the equation. I decided it is a punt and I don't need to

When I am not certain I view it like a poker hand.

If I am wrong -40pct

If I am correct + 200pct.

If chance of success is even 20pct

200 x 20pct + -40 × 80pct. Still positive EV.

If I get it wrong so be it, I think it is still rational.

Given I have not put a massive stake on I like the trade.

BTW, I think the probability of getting a license is much higher. The value of the project would probably be very big. But to be honest just going off the fact someone will pay multiples e.g triple share price was enough for me to find value

Np.

I think from my posting history you see PAT is my conviction buy. This is a small position for me as i am less certain.

It just sounds like the uk has a problem which needs solving. Wind power without storage seems nuts. I read in 2 months we wasted 250m on paying wind turbines not to turn.

Given the political fall out of doing nothing I just have a gut feeling they will approve it.

To put a bigger position I would need to research alot more about competing projects and the latest/historical regulatory environment.

The thing that made me take the bet. Worst case there is the gas we can extract. Share price might fall but it won't go to zero. Maybe minus 40pct.

If it works it does seem that 10m gbp for a storage sight equal to the same size as biggest in uk seems cheap. About 10 houses in hackney!

So on success it might be multiples.

Just seems like a fair punt!

Thanks for the comments.

I am taking a wait and see view.

Maybe after a placing.

The interesting thing is carbon taxes. Nice for upside but more important for downside margin protection. That is where u can loose your shirt.

Daventry.

I would think if the project goes ahead, then these big parties would also be thinking they want a chunk of the pipeline.

Maybe they could arrange to reduce their free carry by 10pct etc.

The question for me is do we have an opportunistic CEO who will do something before FID.

I really appreciate these comments, that is why I always ask the board and start with balance sheet and not npv.

The macro setup here looks very good but the balance sheet might be an immediate worry. Maybe better to see how that gets resolved.

If they get FID I would imagine the loan just converts to equity.

Interesting stock, but maybe need to watch my timing

I will do as you say. Learn a bit about the sales price volatility and credits (downside protection)

The partners assembled are interesting for me.

They have the balance sheet to support the pipeline.

Also given the long leadtime, there is a chance when funding is required for later projects that the company could be a different beast, which allows the chance to take a larger equity share.

I Love learning new things.

Lord

You are my kinda poster. Thanks this is just what I want. I am heavy into some other areas. Let me know if I can repay the good karma :)

Off to research

I do think we could retrace a bit. It is just normal given a super fast run up.

Anyway we are at what 30m usd, fully funded.

Maybe with a 1.3bn if 1.5bn. 2pct of award

Again wish everyone luck. If you trade it and make money, happy for you. Banking a gain is a gain.

Every winning strategy is good