Member Info for gallder

MERCURIA COMMODITY SWAP
FLOATING RATE
From National Grid price data using S.A.P
Ave price per KWH = 9.957402p
Ave price per Therm is 29.3 x 9.957402p = £2.9175187
Total outflow to Mercuria is 3,375,000 X 2.9175187 = £9,846,625

FIXED RATE
Total inflow to Angus is 3,375,000 x 0.414 = £1,397,250

NET OUTFLOW on Commodity Swap is £8,449,875

GAS SALES TO SHELL
Angus quote from RNS 1.2m therms + 50,000 from 30th sept = 1,250,000 therms.
Ave price per therm £2.648 x 1,250,000 = £3,310,000

QUALIFICATIONS
S.A.P. data is in pence / kwh. I used 29.3 as multiple to convert to therms.
According to the swap contract NBP prices should be used to calculate the floating rate.
All the daily per kwh prices are available on the national grid websiteas are the daily calorific values.
Print
Applicable At Applicable For Data Item Value Generated Time Quality Indicator
04/10/2022 12:40:00 03/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 6.9583 04/10/2022 12:41:01 L
04/10/2022 12:40:00 02/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 8.1527 04/10/2022 12:41:01 L
04/10/2022 12:40:00 01/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 7.3137 04/10/2022 12:41:01 L
03/10/2022 12:40:00 30/09/2022 SAP, Actual Day 6.8970 03/10/2022 12:41:01 L
03/10/2022 12:40:00 29/09/2022 SAP, Actual Day 7.5376 03/10/2022 12:41:01 L
03/10/2022 12:40:00 28/09/2022 SAP, Actual Day 7.4697 03/10/2022 12:41:01 L
03/10/2022 12:40:00 27/09/2022 SAP, Actual Day 7.2024 03/10/2022 12:41:01 L
03/10/2022 12:40:00 26/09/2022 SAP, Actual Day 6.1385 03/10/2022 12:41:01 L
03/10/2022 12:40:00 25/09/2022 SAP, Actual Day 6.9372 03/10/2022 12:41:01 L
03/10/2022 12:40:00 24/09/2022 SAP, Actual Day 8.0591 03/10/2022 12:41:01 L
03/10/2022 12:40:00 23/09/2022 SAP, Actual Day 8.0062 03/10/2022 12:41:01 L
03/10/2022 12:40:00 22/09/2022 SAP, Actual Day 8.8654 03/10/2022 12:41:01 L
03/10/2022 12:40:00 21/09/2022 SAP, Actual Day 8.0313 03/10/2022 12:41:01 L
03/10/2022 12:40:00 20/09/2022 SAP, Actual Day 8.9799 03/10/2022 12:41:01 L
03/10/2022 01:00:00 03/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 40.9700 04/10/2022 12:01:00 L
02/10/2022 01:00:00 02/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 40.7400 03/10/2022 12:01:00 L
01/10/2022 01:00:00 01/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 40.8400 02/10/2022 12:01:01 L
30/09/2022 01:00:00 30/09/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 40.8800 01/10/2022 12:01:00 L
29/09/2022 01:00:00 29/09/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 40.6800 30/09/2022 12:01:01 L
28/09/2022 01:00:00 28/09/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 40.7500 29/09/2022 12:01:01 L
27/09/2022 01:00:00 27/09/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.0100 28/09/2022 12:01:00 L
26/09/2022 01:00:00 26/09/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 40.7400 27/09/2022 12:01:00 L
25/09/2022 01:00:00 25/09/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 40.9500 26/09/2022 12:01:00 L
24/09/2022 01:00:00 24/09/2022 System Entry Calorific Va

DRB we dont have a £9m liability from the last quarter. The commodty swap liability is about £8.45m but we had at least £3.3m of gas sales to Shell. Also i did some sums last night regarding calorific values. Mercurias deal is at 39.64422 calorific value. over the last 30 days we have averaged calorific value 40.87 a 3% uplift. Does'nt seem like much but it nearly doubles our income outside the swap.

Actual calorific value of gas produced is irelevant as we wont be pulling up outside their offices with a tanker. whats important is that 10873 therms per 1m scuffs is written into the commodity swap agreement. At current prices of £2.14, £2.39 and £2.03 for the first 3 days of October we have covered the hedge and ave £28500 per day income. This includes £23371 of inflows from the swap. If we stay at these prices and flow rates it represents £2.622m income this quarter.

I hope so. We need 0.1575 to sell gas outside the swap which is 5.56217m scuffs. So if we could average 6m scuffs a day we would have 413,000 therms to sell before the new year.

I don't really do predictions especially when every constituent of the equation is an unknown variable.

Onward7
Your arithmetic on all your posts is miles out. Also UKnatural gas is quoted in pence or pounds not dollars.

Applicable At Applicable For Data Item Value Generated Time Quality Indicator
01/10/2022 01:00:00 01/10/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1537 02/10/2022 12:01:01 L

MERCURIA COMMODITY SWAP
FLOATING RATE
From National Grid price data using S.A.P
Ave price per KWH = 9.957402p
Ave price per Therm is 29.3 x 9.957402p = £2.9175187
Total outflow to Mercuria is 3,375,000 X 2.9175187 = £9,846,625

FIXED RATE
Total inflow to Angus is 3,375,000 x 0.414 = £1,397,250

NET OUTFLOW on Commodity Swap is £8,449,875

GAS SALES TO SHELL
Angus quote from RNS 1.2m therms + 50,000 from 30th sept = 1,250,000 therms.
Ave price per therm £2.648 x 1,250,000 = £3,310,000

QUALIFICATIONS
S.A.P. data is in pence / kwh. I used 29.3 as multiple to convert to therms.
According to the swap contract NBP prices should be used to calculate the floating rate.

mcap max 2019 8.6m mcap now 57m
shares then max 1.6p now 2.08p
tvr then 540m now 2.75b

Unfortunately Malcy does talk ****e at times.

As of 30/09/21 there were 211,301,066 WARRANTS issued. 2,469,914 out of the mony @ 6.8p.
208,831,152 in the money of which 180,313,750 have been excercised.
This leaves 28,517,402 (in the money).
Since 30/09/21 Aleph were issued 173,100,000 warrants at 1.089p. They remain unexcercised.
As of 30/09/21 there were 77,950,892 OPTIONS issued. 28,050,892 out of the money@ >6p.
23,900,000 @ 2p and 26,000,000 in the money @ 1.5p.

Print
Applicable At Applicable For Data Item Value Generated Time Quality Indicator
03/09/2022 01:00:00 03/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0342 04/09/2022 13:01:01 L
04/09/2022 01:00:00 04/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0680 05/09/2022 13:01:01 L
05/09/2022 01:00:00 05/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1026 06/09/2022 12:01:00 L
06/09/2022 01:00:00 06/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0886 07/09/2022 12:01:00 L
07/09/2022 01:00:00 07/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0892 08/09/2022 13:01:00 L
08/09/2022 01:00:00 08/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0923 09/09/2022 12:01:01 L
09/09/2022 01:00:00 09/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0994 10/09/2022 15:01:01 L
10/09/2022 01:00:00 10/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1229 13/09/2022 08:33:00 L
11/09/2022 01:00:00 11/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0537 12/09/2022 12:01:01 L
12/09/2022 01:00:00 12/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0964 14/09/2022 08:30:00 L
13/09/2022 01:00:00 13/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0886 14/09/2022 12:01:00 L
14/09/2022 01:00:00 14/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1001 15/09/2022 12:01:01 L
15/09/2022 01:00:00 15/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0685 16/09/2022 12:01:00 L
16/09/2022 01:00:00 16/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0439 17/09/2022 12:01:00 L
17/09/2022 01:00:00 17/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1378 18/09/2022 12:01:01 L
18/09/2022 01:00:00 18/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1435 19/09/2022 12:01:00 L
19/09/2022 01:00:00 19/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1520 20/09/2022 12:01:01 L
20/09/2022 01:00:00 20/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1507 21/09/2022 12:01:00 L
21/09/2022 01:00:00 21/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1416 22/09/2022 12:01:00 L
22/09/2022 01:00:00 22/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1397 23/09/2022 12:01:01 L
23/09/2022 01:00:00 23/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1480 24/09/2022 12:01:01 L
24/09/2022 01:00:00 24/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1444 25/09/2022 12:01:00 L
25/09/2022 01:00:00 25/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1488 26/09/2022 12:01:00 L
26/09/2022 01:00:00 26/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1467 27/09/2022 12:01:00 L
27/09/2022 01:00:00 27/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1551 28/09/2022 12:01:00 L

i was kinda worried they'd already hedged. Is that possible?

testing

HITS. Where did you read it was volume? Mercuria allowed the deferment because the forward curve was contango.
Ive learnt that on these boards people will argue that the earth is flat so i wont be posting again but good luck with your investments even the complete morons that i have filtered.

In the nineties i worked on a swaps desk(interest rates). However on this link you can read a small part of the contract.
It doesn't show all the important execution points or methodology of the contract implementation but its'nt bad.
It also shows that there is a £1.5m loan payment due at the end of September.
The relevant info is on page 68,69 and 70.
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Angus-Energy-Annual-Report-and-Accounts-and-Notice-of-Annual-General-Meeting.pdf

As with a lot of your posts i kind of agree with your overall sentiment but some of your ''facts'' aren't facts.
Commodity swaps (the hedge) are money inflows or outflows. This means that what has been deferred in this case is not mmsfc/day. It's an, as yet, unknown amount of money. At current flow rates Angus will easily cover Septembers hedge requirement so this leaves July and August.
At £2.50 a therm for July and £4.50? for August you have £7,875,000(outflow) - £931,500(inflow) = £6,943,500 to be deferred.
With proable interest and/or penalties lets call it £7,000,000.
So putting this into your example....

10.5 required Jan to June23
£7m deferred into Jan to June23
At this point best case scenario would be a very high gas price say £10 a therm so 700,000 therms required.
More likely highly volatile, over 6 months between £2 and £6 ave say £4 so 1,750,000.
Quite possible, because of world recession, between £1 and £2 ave say £1.50 so 4,666,666 required.
So 11,200,000 best case.
Or 12,250,000 more likely.
Or 15,166,666 possible.
Jan to June is 182 days
So between 61,538 therms to 67,307 therms or 83,333 therms.
Even using Angs 10,800 conversion it still gives a required rate between 5.7 mscf/d to 6.2 mscf/d to 7.7 mscf/d

So my point is that unless you know the July 22, Aug 22 or indeed Jan23 to June23 price balancing points (floating rate) you
can't claim that your workings are facts.

HITS is correct. The commodity swap contract does not involve physical delivery of gas.
Angus has contracted to pay Mercuria, for example, 10,500,000(therms) x floating rate of gas (1/10/2022 to31/3/2023). So if floating rate is £3 then Angus has to pay 10.5m x £3 = £31.5m.
Mercuria has contracted to pay 10,500,000 ((therms) x fixed rate. So the fixed rate is £0.5205 then Mercuria has to pay
10.5m x £0.5205 = £5.46525m.
The contract happens wether Angus produces lots of gas or no gas.
1) If Angus produces exactly 10.5 million therms in the period it will be sold at whatever the floating rate is ie £3 the £31.5m is paid to Mercuria who then pay back £5.46525m. Angus revs £5.46525m
2) If Angus produces 12 million therms in the period it will be sold at whatever the floating rate is ie £3 =£36m. 31.5m is paid to Mercuria who then pay back £5.46525m. (Angus keeps the £4.5m balance). Angus revs = £9.96525m
3) If Angus produces 9 million therms in the period it will be sold at whatever the floating rate is ie £3 = £27m.. £31.5 m is paid to Mercuria who then pay back £5.46525m (Angus loses £4.5m). Angus revs £0.96525m
So it is imperative that Angus at least reaches their contracted therms.

I would concur.

Applicable At Applicable For Data Item Value Generated Time Quality Indicator
13/09/2022 01:00:00 13/09/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.0886 14/09/2022 12:01:00 L