Member Info for gallder

Current production period for the swap is 182 days so 10,500,000 -: 182 = 57,692 therms per day.
Nov = 30 days so 30 x 57,692 = 1,730,760 therms
1,730,760 =50,723,556 kwh.
Nov gas production = 58,157,775kwh (as per data veiwer) or 1,984,426 therms.
1,984,426 - 1,730,760 = 253,666 therms over the swap.

Novembers gas sales were £2,571,595.
The loss on the commodity swap was £1,315,243.
So net income of £1,256,357.
Average gas price was
04/12/2022 11:40:00 01/12/2022 SAP, 30 day rolling average 4.3617p/kwh as per the data viewer.
4.3617 x 29.3071 = £1.27 per therm.
If you double the daily kwh produced you can add ann extra £2,571,595 to the net income.

JUL kwh for swap 33,328,862 (1,137,221 therms) OUTFLOW £2,610,225 - INFLOW £470,812 = £2,139,413.
AUG kwh for swap 33,328,862 (1,137,221 therms) OUTFLOW £4,293,665 - INFLOW £470,812 = £3,822,853.
SEP kwh for swap 32,253,750 (1,100,543 therms) OUTFLOW £2,953,775 - INFLOW £455,625 = £2,498,150.
OCT kwh for swap 52,414,335 (1,788,452 therms) OUTFLOW £1,969,377 - INFLOW £930,868 = £1,038,509.
NOV kwh for swap 50,723,556 (1,730,760 therms) OUTFLOW £2,216,083 - INFLOW £900,840 = £1,315,243.
TOTAL loss on commodity swap so far £10,814,168.
GAS SALES
July 0
Aug 0
SEP 35,767,635 kwh (1,220,442 therms) £3,120,791.
OCT 54,455,555 kwh (1,858,101 therms) £2,028,698.
NOV 58,157,775 kwh (1,984,426 therms) £2,571,595.
Total gas sales to 30th Nov inc. £7,721,084
Total operating loss at Saltfleetby to 30th Nov inc. £3,093,084
Assuming condensate sales of £200,000 per month covers Angus' general running costs, spot gas price remains at current level £3.38 per therm and energy production levels stay at or above 2,000,000 kwh per day we should move to an operating profit by the end of January.

Val
Read this carefully page 69/70
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Angus-Energy-Annual-Report-and-Accounts-and-Notice-of-Annual-General-Meeting.pdf
Do not use this as a primary source of info as it is a cash flow forecast from a third party although their is some usful info on how the swap inputs were created.
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf

Volumes of gas, other than as an input to the commodity swap, have nothing to do with Mercuria. They are a derivatives house specialising in the oil and gas industry. They do not take delivery of oil or gas. In essence they are like Ladbrokes.
George could have been a potato farmer for all they cared as long as he had the wealth to pay up if the bet went the wrong way. The fact that he is a gas producer meant that the gas sales to Shell would cover any defecit on the trade.

JUL kwh for swap 33,328,862 (1,137,221 therms) OUTFLOW £2,610,225 - INFLOW £470,812 = £2,139,413.
AUG kwh for swap 33,328,862 (1,137,221 therms) OUTFLOW £4,293,665 - INFLOW £470,812 = £3,822,853.
SEP kwh for swap 32,253,750 (1,100,543 therms) OUTFLOW £2,953,775 - INFLOW £455,625 = £2,498,150.
OCT kwh for swap 52,414,335 (1,788,452 therms) OUTFLOW £1,994,546 - INFLOW £930,868 = £1,033,650.
TOTAL loss on commodity swap so far £9,524,094.
GAS SALES
July 0
Aug 0
SEP 35,767,635 kwh (1,220,442 therms) £3,120,791.
OCT 54,455,555 kwh (1,858,101 therms) £2,023,698.

WG
Every day the gas data veiwer gives an energy value in kwh. Recently this has been over 2000000 kwh every day
31/10/2022 00:00:00 31/10/2022 System Entry Energy, Saltfleetby, D+1 2002222.0000
Every day the gas data veiwer gives the ave daily price of gas. It is in pence/kwh.
01/11/2022 11:40:00 31/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 2.9121
If you want to convert it to therms just multiply pence by 29.3071 and divide kwh by 29.3071.

JUL kwh for swap 33,328,862 (1,137,221 therms) OUTFLOW £2,610,225 - INFLOW £470,812 = £2,139,413.
AUG kwh for swap 33,328,862 (1,137,221 therms) OUTFLOW £4,293,665 - INFLOW £470,812 = £3,822,853.
SEP kwh for swap 32,253,750 (1,100,543 therms) OUTFLOW £2,953,775 - INFLOW £455,625 = £2,498,150.
OCT kwh for swap 52,414,335 (1,788,452 therms) OUTFLOW £1,994,546 - INFLOW £930,868 = £1,033,650.
TOTAL loss on commodity swap so far £9,524,094.
GAS SALES
July 0
Aug 0
SEP 35,767,635 kwh (1,220,442 therms) £3,120,791.
OCT 54,455,555 kwh (1,858,101 therms) £2,023,698.

Details of commodity swap can be found here on page 48.
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf
This is, however, a part of a cashflow forecast so not sure if monthly numbers are to be used as opposed to here page 69 where periods are divided into fixed price therm intervals.
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Angus-Energy-Annual-Report-and-Accounts-and-Notice-of-Annual-General-Meeting.pdf

The commodity swap inputs are set at calorific value 39.6422 and 2.60433m3 per therm.

1st 30 days averaged calorific value 40.87.
Equates to 2.52614 m3 per therm.

Applicable At Applicable For Data Item Value Generated Time Quality Indicator
19/10/2022 01:00:00 19/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2200 20/10/2022 12:01:01 L
18/10/2022 01:00:00 18/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.1900 19/10/2022 12:01:01 L
17/10/2022 01:00:00 17/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.0400 18/10/2022 12:01:00 L
16/10/2022 01:00:00 16/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3400 17/10/2022 12:01:01 L
15/10/2022 01:00:00 15/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.0100 16/10/2022 12:01:00 L
14/10/2022 01:00:00 14/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.4300 15/10/2022 12:01:01 L
13/10/2022 01:00:00 13/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.3200 14/10/2022 12:01:01 L
12/10/2022 01:00:00 12/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.2900 13/10/2022 12:01:01 L
11/10/2022 01:00:00 11/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.0900 12/10/2022 12:01:00 L
10/10/2022 01:00:00 10/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.0400 11/10/2022 12:01:00 L
09/10/2022 01:00:00 09/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.0900 10/10/2022 12:01:00 L
08/10/2022 01:00:00 08/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.0600 09/10/2022 12:01:00 L
07/10/2022 01:00:00 07/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 40.3300 08/10/2022 12:01:01 L
06/10/2022 01:00:00 06/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.1000 07/10/2022 12:01:00 L
05/10/2022 01:00:00 05/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 40.6700 06/10/2022 12:01:01 L
04/10/2022 01:00:00 04/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.1600 05/10/2022 12:01:01 L
03/10/2022 01:00:00 03/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 40.9700 04/10/2022 12:01:00 L
02/10/2022 01:00:00 02/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 40.7400 03/10/2022 12:01:00 L
01/10/2022 01:00:00 01/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 40.8400 02/10/2022 12:01:01 L

These are the prices per kwh for October from national gridApplicable At Applicable For Data Item Value Generated Time Quality Indicator
18/10/2022 12:40:00 17/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 2.0838 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 16/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 3.3227 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 15/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 3.7134 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 14/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 4.2877 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 13/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 5.7246 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 12/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 6.1326 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 11/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 5.8837 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 10/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 5.5904 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 09/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 5.4060 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 08/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 5.0111 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 07/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 5.7983 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 06/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 5.2836 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 05/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 4.3576 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 04/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 4.4688 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 03/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 6.9583 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 02/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 8.1527 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L
18/10/2022 12:40:00 01/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 7.3137 18/10/2022 12:41:00 L

If you multiply by 29.3 you will get the price of a therm.

i cant link from bloomberg terminal but their is NEXT DAY futures quotes on Zenergihttps://marketwatch.zenergi.co.uk/prices/

£1.95 on ICE is the futures price in November. Settlement for this contract is October 28th so expect prices to converge.

Gas just dropped below fixed price of commodity swap. 51p

Applicable At Applicable For Data Item Value Generated Time Quality Indicator
12/10/2022 12:40:00 11/10/2022 SAP, Actual Day 5.8837 12/10/2022 12:41:00 L
11/10/2022 01:00:00 11/10/2022 System Entry Calorific Value, Saltfleetby, D+1 41.0900 12/10/2022 12:01:00 L
11/10/2022 01:00:00 11/10/2022 System Entry Volume, Saltfleetby, D+1 0.1705 12/10/2022 12:01:00 L

COMMODITY SWAP
Based on a CALORIFIC VALUE of 39.6422 and 91.97ft3 per therm.
SAP price (from above) is 5.8837p per KWH.
THERM price is 29.3 x 5.8837 = £1.7239.
57,692 therms x £1.7329 = £99,455 OUTFLOW.
57,692 therms x £0.5205 = £30,028 INFLOW.
BALANCE = (£69,427)

GAS SALES
First 30 days average CALORIFIC VALUE 40.87 (Can't be arsed to work out daily) hence 89.21ft3 per therm.
67,494 THERMS X £1.7239 = £116,353
116,353 - 69,427 = £49,926 revenue.

TOTAL REVS in October so far £352,521

QUALIFICATIONS
1) SAP price may be slightly different from NBP.
2) Therms required for commodity swap i used 10,500,000 divided by 182 days as i can't be arsed to change spreadsheet for November and February.
3) 0.8921ft3 x 2.83 x 1.02264 x 40.87 :-3.6 = 29.3 Used for Therm equation.

You lied on Audioboom board to suit your arguments.
You lied on Novacyt to suit your arguments.
Now you are lying on Angus feigning stupidity over a simple commodity swap

Do you remember when you wrote this:
''Mr realist here again. Kist recently bought 34mscf/d completely unhedged for $125m. Investors here are thinking they will now pay $240m for 10mscf/d 50% hedged at 43p. I appreciate the gas price has increased but imo not enough to warrant paying 6 times more for Angs than they did GLA.

The hedging makes Angs look unattractive comparatively speaking.

Imo, the value in Angs is to just keep churning the gas and growing where possible''.

You forgot to mention that they would have to pay an extra $45 m if ave price of gas was over £1.50 a therm ln 2022.
Oh and more importantly it was for 20% of the asset which actually values it at $850m.

There are absolutely zero assumptions . I added up the 92 price values for different days from july 1st to sept 30th and then divided by 92. I then multiplied said average by 29 .3 to convert from average kwh to therms
I'm not sure if you are arrogant or ignorant or just plain stupid but you are definitely a liar.