Member Info for gallder

At last someone else actually understand how a swap works. September futures prices were at least 3 x what they are now. The £110m loss is a projection of the daily swap losses based on the forward NBP price curve. Paradoxically the lesser the loss on the swaps due to price deteriation the less we are recieving in gas sales to Shell. It's like having an enourmous tax bill. Not great but better than a small tax bill.

The SEP 01 22 alteration to the swaps are worth about £690k.
The JAN 01 23 additional swaps are worth about £2.531m (if spot stays around £1.20 till end of March)
The APR 01 23 additional swaps are worth about £3.021m (if spot ave around £0.80 as i suspect it will.)
Plus it would appear that Mercuria have written off the first 2 months from last year (JUL, AUG) which will save Angus
around £5.961m

i posted it this morning at 3.50 am with the new schedule straight after £5,962,266.
To be honest i am amazed that Mercuria seem to have jut forgiven the swaps.

I have already pointed this particular day out in 2 previous posts. The first time on the 18th of October every body ridiculed me because they were being fooled by posters posting november futures prices and i was pointing out that the spot price had just gone below the swap fixed price. The second time was in the last week when i was pointing out the occasional huge variance that is possible. In spring 2020 oil fell to$11 on spot market on the futures market it was -$37 so people were paying $37 a barrell to give oil to somebody else as they had no storage.

Mr Singhie
The easiest way to work out each daily gas sales profit or loss is keeping all 5 transactions seperate.

1) gas sales = SAP X ENERGY (kwh)
SWAP 1
2) OUTFLOW 1,690,785 X sap
3) minus INFLOW 1,690,785 X 1.77602p
SWAP 2
4) OUTFLOW 274,754 X sap
5) minus INFLOW 274,754 X14.9451p

Just to add. I tend to leave everything in kwh so the swap multiplier is 1,690,785 daily.

Mr Singhie
There is a few issues with your methodology.
1) Daily therms produced for sale to Shell is calculated by dividing the 'system energy' no of kwh by 29.3071.
so yesterday according to your post energy was 1,741,111 kwh.
1,741,111/29.3071 = 59,409 therms.
2) Both of your source data for price are April futures prices so therefore irrelevant. For a more accurate price go on the data viewer and click on PRICE (the one before reports in the menu) then open SAP then open SAP ACTUAL DAY. This is the average of all gas sold on that gas day. Still not NBP, as that is the average of all gas sold between 16.05 and 16.15,but you don,t haveto pay for the info. Its close enough.
3) Multiply said price by kwh. So yesterday price was 4.0239p per kwh (multiply by 29.3071 to get therms).
Yesterdays gas sales to Shell were 1,741,111 x 4.0239p = £70,061 or 59,409 therms x £1.17928 = £70,061.

THE COMMODITY SWAP

4) There is no monthly hedge. There are daily swaps and production periods.
The current production period is 182 days and the multiplier is 10,500,000.
10,500,000 / 182 = 57,692.
OUTFLOW (paid by Angus to Mercuria)
57,692 X 1.17928 = £68,035.
INFLOW (paid by Mercuria to Angus)
57,692 x £0.5205 = £30,028
Overall loss on swap £38,007

Income from SHELL £70,061 (LESS 1.5%take off and 0.386p /therm NTSEC) minus loss on swap £38,007 equals
gas sales profit.

i clicked on the link myself after it posted and the wole report is there. section 25.

The SEP 01 22 alteration to the swaps are worth about £690k.
The JAN 01 23 additional swaps are worth about £2.531m (if spot stays around £1.20 till end of March)
The APR 01 23 additional swaps are worth about £3.021m (if spot ave around £0.80 as i suspect it will.)
Plus it would appear that Mercuria have written off the first 2 months from last year (JUL, AUG) which will save Angus
around £5.961m

sorry sent wrong one. this is it.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ANGS/annual-financial-report-275hsmythui1ist.html

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ANGS/saltfleetby-drilling-and-operations-update-1lmyd4807tdb121.html

section 25 of annual report

These are the results using the new swap schedule from this years annual report.

SEP kwh for swap 24,727,865 (843,750 therms) OUTFLOW £2,160,000 - INFLOW £349,312 = (£1,810,687).
OCT kwh for swap 52,414,335 (1,788,452 therms) OUTFLOW £1,969,377 - INFLOW £930,868 = (£1,038,509).
NOV kwh for swap 50,723,556 (1,730,760 therms) OUTFLOW £2,216,083 - INFLOW £900,840 = (£1,315,243).
DEC kwh for swap 52,414,335 (1,788,452 therms) OUTFLOW £4,960,466 - INFLOW £930,868 = (£4,029,598).
JAN kwh for swap 52,414,335 (1,788,452 therms) OUTFLOW £2,830,586 - INFLOW £930,868 = (£1,899,718).
FEB kwh for swap 47,341,980 (1,615,375 therms) OUTFLOW £2,213,915 - INFLOW £840,784 = (£1,373,131).
NEW SWAPS
JAN kwh for swap 8,517,376 (290,625 therms) OUTFLOW £459,890 - INFLOW £1,272,937 = £813,047.
FEB kwh for swap 7,693,114 (262,500 therms) OUTFLOW £355,258 - INFLOW £1,149,750 = £794,492

TOTAL loss on commodity swap so far £9,859,347

GAS SALES
July 0
Aug 0
SEP 35,767,635 kwh (1,220,442 therms) £3,120,791.
OCT 54,455,555 kwh (1,858,101 therms) £2,028,698.
NOV 58,157,775 kwh (1,984,426 therms) £2,571,595.
DEC 52,783,335 kwh (1,801,043 therms) £5,038,043
JAN 55,933,182 kwh (1,908,520 therms) £3,024,733
FEB 49,236,668 kwh (1,680,025 therms) £2,277,526

Total gas sales to 28th FEB inc. £18,061,386

NTSEC costs = £40,347
SHELL t/o = £270,921

Gas sales PROFIT at Saltfleetby to 28th FEB inc. £7,890,771

These are the results using the original swap 'periods of production' and 'fixed price' info from page 68 of last years Annual Report.
From my post on 01/03/23
JUL kwh for swap 33,328,862 (1,137,221 therms) OUTFLOW £2,610,225 - INFLOW £470,812 = £2,139,413.
AUG kwh for swap 33,328,862 (1,137,221 therms) OUTFLOW £4,293,665 - INFLOW £470,812 = £3,822,853.
SEP kwh for swap 32,253,750 (1,100,543 therms) OUTFLOW £2,953,775 - INFLOW £455,625 = £2,498,150.
OCT kwh for swap 52,414,335 (1,788,452 therms) OUTFLOW £1,969,377 - INFLOW £930,868 = £1,038,509.
NOV kwh for swap 50,723,556 (1,730,760 therms) OUTFLOW £2,216,083 - INFLOW £900,840 = £1,315,243.
DEC kwh for swap 52,414,335 (1,788,452 therms) OUTFLOW £4,960,466 - INFLOW £930,868 = £4,029,598
JAN kwh for swap 52,414,335 (1,788,452 therms) OUTFLOW £2,830,586 - INFLOW £930,868 = £1,899,718
FEB kwh for swap 47,341,980 (1,615,375 therms) OUTFLOW £2,213,915 - INFLOW £840,784 = £1,373,131

TOTAL loss on commodity swap so far £18,116,615

GAS SALES
July 0
Aug 0
SEP 35,767,635 kwh (1,220,442 therms) £3,120,791.
OCT 54,455,555 kwh (1,858,101 therms) £2,028,698.
NOV 58,157,775 kwh (1,984,426 therms) £2,571,595.
DEC 52,783,335 kwh (1,801,043 therms) £5,038,043
JAN 55,933,182 kwh (1,908,520 therms) £3,024,733
FEB 49,236,668 kwh (1,680,025 therms) £2,277,526

Total gas sales to 28th FEB inc. £18,061,386

NTSEC costs = £40,347
SHELL t/o = £270,921

Gas sales loss at Saltfleetby to 28th FEB inc. £366,497

Another 10 days and the July August swap will be paid.

Why is nobody talking about this. It's worth several millions to Angus. I'll do the calcs later.

Should have said ''single producing asset''

The methodology for calulations is fine. The real issue with single asset, finite, producing O & G companies
are what numbers to insert in the calculations. HUR trades at 1.5 pe and they have $140m in cash as well. I would also say that the base price is closer to 0.5p. Finally one should also caution against using futures prices as a measure of spot price.
On 18th October the Nov contract was trading at 11X the NBP spot price.

JUL kwh for swap 33,328,862 (1,137,221 therms) OUTFLOW £2,610,225 - INFLOW £470,812 = £2,139,413.
AUG kwh for swap 33,328,862 (1,137,221 therms) OUTFLOW £4,293,665 - INFLOW £470,812 = £3,822,853.
SEP kwh for swap 32,253,750 (1,100,543 therms) OUTFLOW £2,953,775 - INFLOW £455,625 = £2,498,150.
OCT kwh for swap 52,414,335 (1,788,452 therms) OUTFLOW £1,969,377 - INFLOW £930,868 = £1,038,509.
NOV kwh for swap 50,723,556 (1,730,760 therms) OUTFLOW £2,216,083 - INFLOW £900,840 = £1,315,243.
DEC kwh for swap 52,414,335 (1,788,452 therms) OUTFLOW £4,960,466 - INFLOW £930,868 = £4,029,598
JAN kwh for swap 52,414,335 (1,788,452 therms) OUTFLOW £2,830,586 - INFLOW £930,868 = £1,899,718
FEB kwh for swap 47,341,980 (1,615,375 therms) OUTFLOW £2,213,915 - INFLOW £840,784 = £1,373,131

TOTAL loss on commodity swap so far £18,116,615

GAS SALES
July 0
Aug 0
SEP 35,767,635 kwh (1,220,442 therms) £3,120,791.
OCT 54,455,555 kwh (1,858,101 therms) £2,028,698.
NOV 58,157,775 kwh (1,984,426 therms) £2,571,595.
DEC 52,783,335 kwh (1,801,043 therms) £5,038,043
JAN 55,933,182 kwh (1,908,520 therms) £3,024,733
FEB 49,236,668 kwh (1,680,025 therms) £2,277,526

Total gas sales to 28th FEB inc. £18,061,386

NTSEC costs = £40,347
SHELL t/o = £270,921

Gas sales loss at Saltfleetby to 28th FEB inc. £366,497

Another 10 days and the July August swap will be paid.

Gribble
This is equivalent to 757 MMscf

£13,417,916 daily gas sales profit