Member Info for Fukurokuju79

It's a good update to hear it's all moving ahead.

Regarding the financing LC has continually said and written project level financing which is great to hear again today. So much more preferable to mass dilution at co level.
The fact they have so many interested won't harm negotiations either so will be interesting how much of the pre they want.
Gl all

Yep what will be will be. Hopefully will be a strong period for the share price on any news and/or in anticipation of news. Gl all

If it goes down more I will add more but have a few shares here so will only add if goes down much more. Daily checks best avoided as tends to make decisions too emotionally driven.
I will hold longer term on this one personally .
Atb all. Have a good evening

It's the long game. Patience will be required for the larger potential returns imo

Sounds fair fursake.
We must do what we are comfortable with and I agree the next six months to a year will be key to determine the likely success longer term.

That said, as you say the potential remains huge.

Will be interesting to see how it develops

I'm currently intending to hold long term personally. I may slice a fraction off at those prices, all being well, but I see them being shorter to mid term achievable. depends on news flow at the time etc.

If successful id be expecting lots more, but too many variables to try ascertain a long term target at this stage. I genuinely think it's a billion dollar plus business longer term if they can take advantage of their position.

That's not a ramp. I just think it has that sort of potential but obviously the risks are there.

Whereas AD revenue in game not as revenue.
Grrr

People play some games for years now. Not like when I was a kid.
So whereas game producers would only be able to sell advertising space to one company, once and hard code in, with bids it really opens doors with the way gaming is moving to be able to continue to sell the same advertising space multiple times for time periods.
Or be able to dynamically update an older platform game with newer campaigns for the same companies.
Furthermore the ability to sell the same ad space to multiple companies too rather than just one, by geographical location, by cohort groups, or both.

Whereas as revenue in game space could only traditionally be sold once, with bids it opens up way more earning potential for everyone, on all forms of applications.
Clearly adoption will take a while as its fundamentally shifting in game advertising models but when it shifts it can be epic.
Needs time and patience imo and all being well bidstack can create those meaningful relationships as the first mover.
Atb

The outcome of losing money or making money in investing is the same as roulette.

What you're conveniently overlooking though is roulette is chance, and you may only double your money. An investment in a stock is researched on many levels, the risk reward is considered, position sizing, technical analysis etc. Put simply the probabilities of those outcomes just aren't equal.

Lets put the bear case forward..and for the purpose of this illustration I'm going to be super pessimistic. I don't think these things come true but im just going to be a bear for a while..

Current position: Bids have a mcap of 26million or so. The potential market is 138 billion and probably more but let's keep it simple and negatively say 100 billion.

Key bear argument - you'll all be diluted, cash urn is high, a placing is coming...

Okay let's accept this. I'm certain money will be raised in the future. But let's assume bids end up issuing twice the shares currently in circulation over the next year or two, hell even three times the shares in issue to be super bear. That would still only value bids at the equivalent of 75 - 100 million mcap at today's entry.

Key bear argument two......competition will swallow bids up, the management can't pull this off

So let's remove the fact bids have first mover advantage. Let's remove all of bids current relationships / involvement with the key industry players. Let's say they only get 10% of the market share, no let's say 5%. Sobat 5% it's 5 billion. (Don't forget I've already dropped the market size by about 20%, oh and thereby assumed the gaming market won't grow). Is that pessimistic enough?

So assuming that a company currently trading at a valuation of 25 million is actually trading at 100 million. Assuming that they only get get 5% market share, based on 80% of the actual market size. Assuming a growing market doesn't grow. In this parallel universe we're saying i can buy a 100 million mcap company bringing in over 5 billion a year.

As you can see I've listened and it's my view that even on this most stupid bear model the investment case on the potential returns isn't roulette. As I said it's binary you could lose all the capital but the potential reward I've determined is magnificent. It's certainly not roulette odds but it's certainly not risk free.

All IMHO but hey it's why I'm here but I don't have my kitchen sink in it!! It's about being sensible.

Lol. That made me laugh...omg

You can come up with all the fancy analogies you like.
You spend all day here posting negatively on a share you're invested in, you're sat at a loss and still decide to hold despite your negative outlook in your investment, that's some bluff. Now that is truly a gamblers outlook it's called chasing your losses.

Also im afraid your analogy is wrong. What you don't account for is that black or red maybe similar probabilities, but the reward is only 100%. The risk reward ratio wouldn't support doing it.
This is by far no a roulette outcome but good try.

What is it they say know when to hold em know when to fold em. Maybe you should cut your losses.

I've done very well in my investing, I'm comfortable here. I hope you turn your fortunes around.

Atb

You say....

'A bit more complex than that mate, there is also a camp that believe BIDs have the opportunity of a lifetime but have zero faith in the CEO to execute.'

Umm it's really not that complicated, it's binary. You believe, invest. You don't, invest elsewhere. Everyone has the choice of doing or not doing.

It's not that complicated and it really is this simple...as I said..

'Its a binary bet. If its a success it'll probably be the share of a life time. If it fails you may lose your capital.'

The amount of time uninvested individuals spend on here is insane. Hey, it's your lifes time to waste.

You may well be right, but you may also be wrong. I concede to that, do you?

Personally I believe the latter.
If I'm wrong I'm at peace with losing what I've invested, but if right...

It's not a share to worry about what it's doing tomorrow. It's a share to leave and see where it is in a year, or more.

At what point do you feel you've achieved what you want to here? Like I say it's your life. Each to their own I suppose.

Personally if it's as you all say. If you believe in the market but not in bids to be the eventually market leader, surely your time is better spent finding that other company. What are the options there?

I'll leave you to it.

Atb

I can understand why there is such opposites here who feel strongly both sides.
Keeping it very simple my view is you either believe in this business model at a conceptual level or you don't.
Personally to me i genuinely think it's the future of in game advertising, and potentially beyond with IoT etc.
The people involved and engaged with Bids, and the size of the market that can be penetrated is incredible.

On the flip side lets face it...
Could it fail, of course. Could a competitor emerge and come out on top at some stage, of course. May the price drop to 4p tomorrow or by the end of next month, of course. But IMO what happens with the share price tomorrow, or this year's revenues to date really doesn't matter at this stage.

It's at the start, it's at an early adopter stage, It's going to be a choppy ride. There will be turbulence.

Personally I'm of the view that it's not often you get an opportunity to invest in a tech company, at this early stage, with such potential.

Its a binary bet. If its a success it'll probably be the share of a life time. If it fails you may lose your capital.

Atb

Agree Kully no one will hold back results from being released.

I appreciate you're obviously in a pretty negative position here and I sincerely hope you get it back now things have changed.

Unfortunately, it seems the root cause of your loss was legacy issues, rather than the new management.
Sadly those legacy issues required money to clear debts, and generate sufficient working capital for this year.
It was at that same time that the management was swapped out and Paul became CEO.

From that date, the amount of activity and uplift in share price has been strong. IMO it doesn't seem the same business now.
I look for this as its often when the best potential returns can be made, albeit with empathy for anyone impacted historically.

That said, it's clearly a high risk high reward investment. As are all junior exploration companies.

Ultimately capital raising is why companies list, so dilution will always be an issue until cash generative transactions or production.
All we can do is expect a) capital raising is done responsibly and b) ideally with a rising shareprice i.e. the captial that is raised is seen and proven to be value adding.

IMO dilution is by far the biggest reward killer in microcaps esp junior exploration when costs can be high. It's always a main area of focus before I invest.

I've no doubt money will be raised again but Paul has over 7% here and over 8% fully diluted.
While we will clearly have further dilution imo it will be done as much as possible with existing shareholders in mind (including Paul).

Hopefully you get your investment capital returned and we all do very well. I think now is a good time to be here.

Paul is certainly a bundle of energy, maybe a little overenergetic, but you need someone like that to drive a business like this forward. He definitely has grand plans here and it seems to have some fair potential. It may fail. It's the calculated risk we take.

I'm not even sure he breathed during that interview lol.

Atb gla.

Agreed

On the spread is impacting the labelling of the trades here as the trade today was a buy for sure (mine lol). Ask now pushed up I think to 7.5p, bid unchanged. Limited free float so makes sense.

Also holding shares in the target company obv has the secondary (or potentially primary) additional benefit of being able to vote in favour if any buyout.
Atb

Good question Peggy.
They wouldn't go above the threshold to have to make a formal offer (ATM) but they could buy while prices are lower as it gets them a better deal.
As an example if the potential buyer of a company can expect to buyout a company at a quid but shares are currently trading at 20p they would do well to buy a chunk in open market as it saves them cash.
That said, it's only speculative. If AA started to hoover up shares on the open market it would push up the price in itself, and it would be sustained so we'd probably know.
I dont think it's AA personally but it's not out the question.

I've been adding a little but can't add more now. What will be will be.
I agree though AA couldn't buy that sort of value or volume here in individual trades, if expect it would be done gradually and moderately sized trades should they build a stake ahead of any potentially formal transaction.
Be good to see sustained daily rise in price ahead of news and during the exclusivity period though.

Lol