Member Info for Fukurokuju79

I'm not sure why people seem offended by my posts and opinions. You all seem so obsessed with it having to happen ASAP and with AA.

The Godfather reference was a joke about the fact I agree AA deal may happen sooner if it's a deal Nick thinks he can't refuse. Not that AA are mafioso lol.

Without stomping over old ground my last post states my view which is well balanced in my opinion and doesn't rule out any possible outcomes. It's simply saying there is no rush and Nick will work for the best offer not the quickest.

Jeez

Thefuturetruth, You're for some reason trying to twist my words. I'm NOT saying anything about walking away.

I'm not excluding the outcome that a deal with AA may be done within the exclusivity period, as per my comments, and don't need a definition.

Of course they (Arc and AA ) will have had and continue to have meaningful transactional discussions with each other.

I'm simply saying Nick will do what's right to get the best offer. As he said in the conference no need for a fire sale, it's step by step.

If the AA offer is mega he may well accept it and I'm well up for that, but he said himself he isn't obliged to. If he thinks having a competitive bidding situation with of other majors, Chinese etc will get a better result he will do it but can't until after the exclusivity agreement i.e. if Anglo don't make the right offer.

Either way we are splitting hairs here and I'm not sure why. Im totally open to the fact a deal can happen with AA at this time. Despite the fact you won't entertain my viewpoint lol. Ultimately I don't care as my overriding point is Nick is aiming for the best deal not the quickest deal.

If it's 6 months or 6 weeks, with AA or with another, it makes no difference at all. We're invested as we believe it will happen.

End of

What I'm saying is as per his words at around 30 mins into the call that it's step by step and he expects further competition as it 'opens up' (i.e. after the exclusivity to AA) he defo isn't prioritising on what's the quickest return.

Re the Chinese that may well be the case I'm not forgetting that's my point exactly. No other bids or discussions can be entertained during the AA exclusivity. Hence im saying personally I'm expecting a deal after.

In terms of the the quote you asked about it's a joke referencing the Godfather film lol. I'm basically saying while I believe he will wait to be able to have a bid situation after exclusivity he may entertain an offer from AA during it. But it'll have to be an offer he can't refuse i.e. a great offer. The horse's head is the give away link to the Godfather film and offer he can't refuse line.
Hope that clarifies.
Regards

Totally agree.

Just re-listening to the investor call agwin and it's crystal Nick is looking for a respectable offer. So I'm defo still of the opinion that waiting is best and as Nick said on the call he is under no obligation to accept any offer from AA. While at the moment he can't entertain the other majors who has shown an interest, as its precluded during the six month exclusivity period with AA, he clearly sees and discusses the potential competition this brings to the table in terms of bids for the assets from majors once the AA tie up ends.
If AA make an offer he can't refuse during the exclusivity or put a horse's head in his bed that's the only way he will deal during exclusivity. Beyond that imo he wants the majors bidding against one another.
Either way it only means one thing for investors.
Gla

Damn it shows 0.295 on my post that won't work with my ocd

Welcome aboard to the 30s. Amazing.

I certainly am not suggesting there will be an extension.
I agree an offer will come forward sooner. However I also believe it's beneficial for Arc shareholders that it's later in the agreement period rather than sooner simply as..

a) we can drill and prove up more
b) we want to be coming out of the exclusivity period with AA to engage other third parties and apply leverage.

Long and short is while it's probably in AAs interest to offer earlier and this may well happen for all the reasons mentioned by many, I personally don't think it's in Arc (our) interests and I'd expect us too wipe our feet a bit on it to get the best deal.
So be excited but try be patient imo for even better returns. Either way we're splitting hairs id personally rather Arc played it cool and wait an extra few weeks to help us negotiate the best deal.

Thefuturetruth I'm certainly not naive I do just fine. We all agree a transaction should be forthcoming all this is just musings based on our own 'assumptions' of what we think we know and what we think we see.
If a respectable offer comes forward sooner so be it but no one can say it will or won't. I agree discussions will already have been had but as to what, when, how long no one knows apart from those in the room.
Join the dots as much as you like but using words like naive is egotistical, its better investors have confident patience.

There has been some interesting opinions shared here.

My personal view is that it wouldn't make sense for Arc M to hold any drilling results from being communicated, it wouldn't be part of the confidentiality and I can't see how AA have any position to try stop it either.
The confidentiality and 6 month exclusivity agreement with the subsidiary of Anglo American will simply be around their discussions.

Obviously AA will conduct their technical review but in relation to further drill results AA already covered themselves with the exclusivity aspect of the agreement.

So we should still get all l results as normal IMO they wouldn't hold these back for AA benefit. They are working in their own and our benefit and will want the wider stakeholders and other parties to know what we have.

In terms of when a deal comes forward it could be sooner but I don't think AA will rush. They have the exclusivity and they can wait. They have lots of plates spinning and will have internal red tape and hoops they will jump through. They'll eek it out to see as many results as possible, and as per the RNS after the technical review it may result in an extension of the exclusivity and the negotiation of a commercial.

In reality they will almost certainly be having discussions during the technical review and I'm not saying an extension beyond the six months (as detailed in the rns) would be required but my point is that, IMO, don't expect it wrapped up in 6-8 weeks. It's more realistic to expect fireworks q1/q2 next year. Assuming the drill results evidence the expectation then a little longer is a good thing for us.

In fact if I were Arc I wouldn't want transactional discussions until we have as much leverage as possible namely even more evidence from further drill results and the ability to make AA sweat as the exclusivity period comes to an end and wider interested parties e.g. Rio etc will be able to be entertained. We want AA with FOMO.

Don't expect overnight riches but I personally believe there will be gold at the end of the rainbow after the rainy season. Q1 even possibly Q2.

Hopefully the mcap will move up upwards ahead of the commercial discussion also.

I'll keep adding and I think patience will get a better return for shareholders.

I wouldn't anticipate them not sharing drill or other news personally. I believe will still announce as per normal. However they will keep tight lipped on any transactional/commercial discussions with AA. it'll have to be a tone of message and body language interpretation for that which as some have mentioned was uplifted if late.
Assets deserve decent returns IMO.
Atb

Whoop
GL all

I may be wrong and out if turn but I didn't get the impression that silver soldier sold (say that fast ten times) due to Donald but that's they've been trading the movements and decided to exit (for now).
I'll hold and have a low average but I do feel some of the magic fairly dust of enthusiasm has got lost for now. Ideally for increased sentiment to drive the value higher short term, the next PSC extension would need to come with more sparkle news like drill plan etc to get the engines running again IMO.

Not a big deal if playing long but we all invest in our own timeframes and risk appetites so....eachh to their own really.

I'm holding and hoping for short term sparkle...for now.

Atb

No it's a news signal if you buy into those things. Not convinced myself

A little sub 4p today which was unwelcomingly welcomed.

Sam12345 I blame for you lol. Sorry but. I defo think you are cursed

Fabulous to see

Exactly... Low/no shares....low liquidity.

Free float!

The spread represents the risk and profit to the MMs.
Often with volatile stocks e.g. low liquidity, Low freeflow the MMs will have a widened spread.

Ok fair enough. Thanks for replying.