A very interesting and insightful view of……22 Aug 2023 10:25
The Presidential Election from Luminex to its shareholders which IMO has lots of positives for Solgold shareholders:-
The Ecuador presidential snap election occurred on Sunday August 20th. The winner will be in power until the next president is elected in the regularly scheduled election in H1 2025. The results from yesterday should allow for the continuation of support for responsible mining in the country. Luisa Gonzalez (UNES - Correa's party, 45 years old) finished in first place at 33%, with runner-up Daniel Noboa (ADN - 35 years old, centrist, business-aligned) at 24%. Both will advance to a run-off election to determine the next President on October 15, 2023.
Gonzalez has polled strong the whole campaign and was always going to be a front runner. The Correista party can usually count on ~30-35% of the vote.
Noboa surged in the last week, following a positive performance in the debate. Pundits believe his pragmatic non-populist message resonated very strongly with Ecuador's large under-35 voting populace, who are sick of hearing about the past (Correa and anti-Correa) and embraced his optimistic entrepreneurial vision that stressed the need for training people for future opportunities.
The single issue candidates (Jan Topic - security and Yaku Perez - environment/anti mining) underperformed. Topic will probably be back for the 2025 elections, especially if public safety remains an issue, and could even have a role to play in Noboa's cabinet. Yaku Perez will likely have a very hard time recovering from this election, as will the indigenous political party Pachakutik, which it appears will go from having about ~20% of Assembly seats to around 4%.
Both candidates can be expected to be supportive of mining. Gonzalez can be counted on to have the same position on large scale mining as her party boss Rafael Correa; it is a strategic pillar of the country's future development. Noboa has said that he supports responsible mining, but stressed that it is key for the State to modify how state revenues are distributed in order that the local populations can feel that the activity benefits them directly. The Noboa family have a direct stake in the development of the Curipamba mine through an investment in Adventus Mining -- the Consorcio Nobis have a seat on Adventus's board of directors.
The Assembly: with 38% of national ballots counted, it appears the Correistas will again be the main legislative force, with about 50 of 137 seats. Four center-right alliances will combine for about 45% of the chamber: 28 (Zurita/Construye), 12 (Noboa/ADN), 14 (Topic/PSC), and 7 (Sonnenholzner/Actuemos). The Indigenous party, Pachakutik is forecast to drop from almost a 20% representation to five seats. This bodes well for preventing any populist legislation, however the prospects for positive reforms are mixed. The parties will likely be jockeying for the 2025 elections from day one.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
