Member Info for foxm

https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/643814-wilhelmsen-scrubber-retrofit-a-good-option http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wilhelmsen-considerations-for-scrubber-retrofitting/ http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/sox-emissions-time-for-shipping-to-have-a-clean-up/ https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/913714-update-one-third-of-shipping-will-eventually-opt-for-scrubbers-for-imo2020-compliance-foreship

A normal bit of profit taking / stop-loss triggering / consolidation, it's healthy. It went from less than 4p to more than 15p in about 3 weeks. Nothing goes up in a straight line.

It's nice but somewhat surprising that we've manged to 4-bag in less than 3 weeks and this place is still rather quiet. No mass influx of ramping day-traders, I'm not sure how long that will last if the Saudi RNS is a stonker. P.S. genjokoan I can think of a few choice phrases slightly stronger than 'very challenging' to describe how it felt at 2.5p a share mid-year. I doubt LSE would let me post them though. It was absolute pants.

tot just posted a link on iii regarding Kuwait, it caught my eye because I read this earlier this morning - "In a separate downstream development, a new greenfield project – the Al Zour refinery – will utilise clean technology to process sour reserves while meeting higher emissions standards. The refinery is expected to produce 225,000 bpd of low-sulphur fuel oil to power local plants, alongside jet fuel, kerosene and naphtha feedstock. Investment in the project is estimated at KD6.7bn ($22bn), and operations are scheduled to begin next year." https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/This-OPEC-Member-Aims-To-Boost-Oil-Output-By-40.html And one of the companies which is involved in the Al Zour refinery, some Japanese firm called JGC, anybody heard of them? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Zour_Refinery https://goo.gl/arfukf It's a small world.

I've still got all my fingers crossed that this recently announced UKEF US$2bn export loan guarantee has something to do with us. It might explain that spike up to 6p in August. "The UK has offered oil giant Saudi Aramco a US$2bn (£1.5bn) export loan guarantee. The move has been interpreted by many as a bid to woo the company to hold its market debut, which could prove to be the world’s largest initial public offering (IPO), in London. UK Export Finance (UKEF) is finalising the details of the deal, which will take the form of guarantees on bank lending. In the last five years, UKEF has provided Saudi Aramco with nearly £500mn in support of UK exports, notably for the Sadara chemicals project. A government spokesperson tells GTR: “We will be providing Saudi Aramco with support in the form of credit guarantees to procure from the UK. This builds on previous support for UK exports as part of Saudi Aramco joint venture projects.”" And then remember that Jason Miles added Samir Zainaddin on Linkedin recently and the two projects which Samir is currently working on are "Low Value Fuel Utilization" and "Coordinating with utilities to accommodate fuel conversions from using high to low value fuels" "Project description - Coordinating with utilities to accommodate fuel conversions from using high value fuels such as crude and Diesel to low value fuels such as fuel oil, vacuum residues and Petcoke. The switching solutions include modification and new power plant projects that worth around $2B and NPVs exceeding $6B. This includes promoting and supporting building business-cases and project development for new technologies such as bottom of the barrel fuel gasification, fuel emulsification, fuel switching for steam boilers, light liquid crude combustion testing, and synergy between cogeneration plants and petrochemical processes for best utilization of fuel, power and steam." $2bn upgrades? Projects with a NPV of $6bn? Fuel Emulsification? Probably just a coincidence, but not beyond the realms of possibility. If they are linked the share price will go ballistic when it's announced. Fingers and toes all crossed.

If the MMU is installed and ready for immediate production, it must be about a 99% certainty that the contracts will finally be signed off and RNS'd in the next few weeks. How much does an MMU cost again? £500k? Maybe even £800k? I can't remember off the top of my head. Add on the price of the FEED study, the ancillary equipment, the money paid to get everything to this stage, I can't see them going through the hassle of commissioning the whole plant and then not bothering to use it.

https://twitter.com/EmergoCharts/status/917854611704344577 https://twitter.com/Kevalp187/status/940168194702172161

And the share price movement over the last 2 weeks must have cheered you up too Rob ;-) I also moved out of the red this morning when 11p arrived on the bid, for the first time in months. Not a lot of profit, maybe enough for a long weekend in Blackpool. It sure beats staring an a 6-figure paper loss though.

It wouldn't surprise me if we get another intra-day RNS re Saudi. The JGC one came early morning, about 9.30ish, but that was probably following the MOA being signed late afternoon Japan time. KSA is 3 hours ahead of the UK, so we could easily have a 2pm RNS if the contracts are signed in the afternoon.

tom46, it's difficult to quantify but the potential markets are absolutely huge. For the Saudi market alone we are looking to replace most of the HFO and crude oil which they currently burn in their power stations, it fits in perfectly with their new downstream business philosophy and Vision 2030. It could be up to 40 million tons of MSAR a year sold just in KSA, at roughly $10 a ton profit for QFI, you do the maths. I make it an EPS of about 34p, so it's possible we're still slightly under-valued. There are only 9 whole tradings days and 2 half days left of 2017, so we shouldn't have too long a wait to find out what Mr Miles has been up to in the 4 months he's spent there this year.

Probably the last chance to buy in single figures, back into double digits soon and after the Saudi news hits there's no way we'll be seeing these levels ever again.

TradeYodha 30 Nov '17 - 10:36 Short order filled. Been waiting for this 5p level. Dyor kreature 30 Nov '17 - 10:47 I opened a small short at 5p (Yoda was right again) kreature 1 Dec '17 - 09:33 Opened another Short position around 6p. I don't know....£51m cap seems a bit on the high side to me, for a rented office losing 4m a year with no revenue in sight, none, zero. The only near term prospect seems to be the possibility of a trial in the year of 2019 - Also I think the AGM was an embarrassment last year and I predict the same this year. Hence the Short. Feel free to wish me luck. IMO - ATB - DYOR JakNife 1 Dec '17 - 09:35 Good luck kreature, I've followed you in at marginally below 6p. brookemia 1 Dec '17 - 15:07 kreature, your 6P short looking good, well called!

My last serious top-ups were when it was in the very low 4s, I would have paid anything in the 6s this morning but that went very early. I'm not paying over 8p now, I'm more than fully loaded anyway. Just waiting for that Saudi RNS now, we all know it's coming very soon, the thing we don't know is exactly what will be in it.

B*gger. I like many it seems was hoping to have one final cheeky top up this morning at 8am, but it looks like I've been beaten to it. Buys going through at almost 8p already, could be 2 million traded in the first 10 minutes, it looks like all the positive comments from the AGM attendees over the weekend have changed the mood. Oh well, I've got a wheel-barrow full of shares already, shouldn't be too greedy :-)

They have sold their oil tanker business as well as Maersk Oil, they still have Maersk Drilling and Maersk Supply Service to try and dispose of. If they can find buyers for them too they will have sold off almost $15bn worth. All they will be left with is the container business and logistics. https://www.ft.com/content/9cd15e82-9dd4-11e7-8cd4-932067fbf946

Don't forget the current financial situation Maersk finds itself in when thinking about their decision on MSAR. It's not exactly awash with spare cash at the moment, the exact opposite in fact, they're selling off many parts of their business to reduce the debt, their bonds are still only just above Junk status. If they did want to retrofit most of their fleet with scrubbers, it would cost at least $1 billion, probably closer to $2 billion. If they can't afford it then they'll have to use Low Sulphur fuel, which will probably add $1 billion to their annual fuel bill. They don't find themselves in a very favourable position. Funding and up-front finance options will be key to scrubber uptake IMO, not just for Maersk but many other shipping companies.

To try and put that phrase into context, I eventually got around to having a look at how big JGC actually was, I knew they were big, I just hadn't seen any figures banded about. US$ 7.3 billion in revenue in 2015 which generated US$ 356 million of Net Income, quite impressive. If they think MSAR can be a significant addition to their business, then we must be talking about quite a few million barrels of the stuff.

I've got fatter fingers than you, or I would have beat you to it ;-)

Snap!!

"it's only an MOU" No it's an MOA, there is a difference. And Takashi Yasuda's comments at the bottom of the RNS yesterday are very significant.