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I presumed/hoped that the "under wraps" item was Mexico. It would be completely under wraps if Gabriel Yoro hadn't opened his gob at the start of December.

I wonder if the comment about the marine trial blockage being resolved might have something to do with this -

https://www.polymerupdate.com/news/Plant/24Jan2022/1150339/shell-to-close-its-pernis-oil-refinery-for-a-five-month-maintenance-till-late-june

We know that the LONO trial is expected to use transatlantic routes, so the ships would have to be fuelled either in the Med (Cepsa being the favourite, for obvious reasons) or the ARA region. Shell are MSC's decarbonisation partner, they signed an MOU together last year, so that Rotterdam refinery also has to be a very strong contender. Is it just a coincidence, or could they be related? A few weeks after Jason says "Watch this space", one of the strong candidate refineries just happens to be closing for 5 months for maintenance. Perfect timing for lots of MMU installations. Work is due to be finished at the end of June, it would mean the LONO trial could start in July. The work is due to start at the end of January, so if it isn't just a complete coincidence, we should find out very shortly. Or to use QFI's favourite word, imminently!!

Not sure about that Torreaguas, would that not take Steve Byle well over the 30% limit? It would force him to make an offer for the rest of the shares I think. Valkor are due to get 592 million shares for selling TOM their 50% interest in Greenfield. If these 250 million shares issued a few days ago are going to HSO, another Steve Byle company, it would probably breach this condition in the 26 Aug RNS -

"The deferred consideration for the Acquisition comprises the issue to Valkor of 592,830,258 new ordinary shares of no par value in TomCo ("Ordinary Shares") (the "Acquisition Shares") which currently equates, in aggregate, to 29% of the Company's issued share capital as enlarged by the Acquisition Shares, subject to adjustment to ensure that Valkor and any person acting in concert with it shall not exceed a 29% ownership interest in the Company at the time such shares are issued. Valkor currently has no pre-existing interest in TomCo's issued share capital. "

I suppose the 592 million could be adjusted down to a lower figure, to keep it just under 30%. It would have to go down to about 450 million instead.

Heavy Sweet Oil LLC is Steve Byle, I posted the links about them a while ago.

https://www.stevenbyle.net/companies

https://heavysweetoil.com/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/steven-byle/

I am Co-Founder of this world class oil project on a multi-billion barrel resource in Utah. The company is targeting in-situ heavy sweet oil sands at shallow depths with enhance oil recovery using flue gas and steam. Beyond simple production, the company targets CO2 sequestration at unprecedented levels due to the unconsolidated sands. It further aims to mix its oil with waste from bio-diesel to offset emissions and produce a bio-fuel.

According to this article, the six Pemex refineries will have to increase their production from the current 45% capacity to 80% capacity, for the country to become self-sufficient. Even at 45% capacity, they are currently producing 14.5 million tons of HFO a year, get to 80% and it will be more than 25 million tons. Some of that will be diverted to new cokers in a couple of refineries, but even with just 3 refineries running MSAR, we are still looking at a massive project.

https://www.altonivel.com.mx/economia/deer-park-cuanto-deberan-producir-todas-las-refinerias-de-pemex-para-que-mexico-sea-autosuficiente/

And how much is needed to satisfy the demand for gasoline in Mexico?

Ramses Pech, analyst at Caraiva y Asociados, indicated that, with data from Pemex and the Ministry of Energy (Sener), the country demands 1.2 million barrels of gasoline and diesel on a daily basis.

According to the specialist, with data from April 2021, the six Pemex refineries are currently operating at 45% of their capacity, which gives a total of 224 thousand barrels of gasoline and 115 thousand of diesel a day, when demand is 800 one thousand and 400 thousand barrels per day, respectively.

In order to meet the demand for gasoline and diesel in the country, Pech projects that, by 2024, the 6 Pemex refineries must operate at 80% of their capacity , which would give about 487 thousand barrels of gasoline and 268 thousand of diesel per day.

Likewise, 165 thousand barrels of gasoline and 122 thousand barrels of diesel would be added per day from the Dos Bocas refinery, Tabasco, which would already be operating in 2024. In addition, 94 thousand barrels of gasoline and 53 thousand barrels of diesel from the Cangrejera complex would be added, plus the 110 thousand of fuel and 90 thousand of diesel from Deer Park.

All of the above would give a total of 856 thousand barrels of gasoline and 533 thousand of diesel a day, in sum, 1.3 million. Enough to cover the demand for these fuels in Mexico.

Of course, this will happen if the above assumptions are met and there are no setbacks in the government and Pemex plans.

https://www.elsoldemexico.com.mx/mexico/politica/adelanta-amlo-que-pemex-ya-cuenta-con-plan-de-negocios-7641338.html

AMLO anticipates that Pemex already has a business plan

The intention of this plan, assured the president, is for Pemex to turn again to the policy of self-sufficiency of fuel supply in the country

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador assured that the Secretary of Energy , Rocío Nahle , together with the CEO of Pemex , Octavio Romero , developed a business plan for the state-owned production company, which consists of 10 basic points for it to reach its potential and, will be released next week.

Referring to this decalogue, the president said from his morning conference on Wednesday that this plan has to do with activities such as: exploration, refining, gas, the recovery of the domestic market; ensuring that prices do not rise, and continuing with the alliance with Pemex workers .

He also stressed that an important issue within this plan is the security and maintenance of the equipment in the infrastructure of the parastatal.

He stressed that the purpose is to make Pemex "turn" again to the policy of self-sufficiency of fuel supply for Mexico . Well, he pointed out that one of his government purposes is to keep fuel prices stable, so that they do not increase in real terms.

During the president's conference, it was announced that next week, they will release the details of this business plan.

Mexico news very, very soon? Before the end of the year?

At AMLO's news conference yesterday, he announced that the new Pemex Business Plan which Mexico's deputy Finance Minister, Gabriel Yorio, referenced at the start of the month, is to be released next week by the Pemex CEO, Octavio Romero, and the Secretary of Energy, Rocío Nahle (remember her?).

So just how are you planning to increase refining capacity and reduce all of that fuel oil production? Please do tell, the suspense is killing me.

https://www.jornada.com.mx/notas/2021/12/22/politica/sube-capacidad-de-refinacion-del-pais-en-700-mil-barriles-diarios-amlo/

The country's refining capacity increases by 700 thousand barrels a day: AMLO

Mexico City. When ratifying the plan to be self-sufficient in fuel by the end of 2023, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador today thanked the United States President, Joe Biden, “for their trust in the officials of all government agencies who participated in this authorization, for the purchase of Deer Park refinery ".

López Obrador reported today that the $ 1.2 billion operation for which Petróleos Mexicanos acquired the plant located in Texas was completed. He thanked "Shell managers for maintaining the operation in the agreed terms and telling the people of Mexico that this means having more capacity to process the crude oil that is extracted from wells in our country."

With this refinery, he added, with the new Dos Bocas refinery, and also with the Tula coker, we are increasing our refining capacity by around 700 thousand barrels per day.

To this must be added an average of 10 billion pesos of investment for the rehabilitation of the six existing refineries, stressed the president.

He also said that production is increasing and it is expected that by next year the country will have a capacity of 1.2 million barrels, plus the 700 thousand referred, so that in 2023 all fuels for internal consumption will be produced in Mexico.

"It is a very important turn in oil policy," he said. He stressed that in Mexico a new refinery had not been built for 40 years, "always with the lie that refining was not a business."

"As we have said many times in a metaphorical way: sell orange to buy orange juice.

Now we are moving towards self-sufficiency to keep prices low on gasoline, diesel and other products, "added López Obrador.

"That is the change in oil policy, among other things."

McNulty has sold out NOW. Hilarious. That could turn out to be the biggest ever mistake of his investment career. I hope he doesn't find himself looking back at the end of January, with that famous Jim Bowen line continually repeating in his head - "Have a look at what you could have won."

Mexico news is imminent, if it's not by the end of the year, it should be January at the latest and that's from the mouth of their deputy Finance Minister, Mexico's equivalent of Rishi Sunak's number 2. Pemex is a completely different beast to KSA, they basically have no choice but to use MSAR, and it will be at least 10 million tons a year.

Marine news is also due, and it's not too long a shot that our old Danish friends might make a reappearance. There was an interesting job vacancy posted by them recently, I'm not saying it's 100% related to us, but it certainly could be.

https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/2818545265/?refId=KIpq620YRcOeCkcSX3PB%2FA%3D%3D

Key responsibilities

You will be responsible for supporting the design and implementation of modifications to the existing fleet.

Your primary responsibilities will be:

- Initiate, implement and manage retrofit projects that reduce fuel consumption and help to decarbonise our ships

There's no way that these retrofits can be anything related to methanol or ammonia or hydrogen fuel cells, they can't even guarantee a methanol supply for the 8 new ships they've ordered, let alone existing ships.

https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/451320-maersk-may-wait-until-2025-for-green-methanol-supply

It could be Silverstream's air lubrication system they're talking about, they are trialling that, they announced it just a few weeks after MSC ordered 30 of them. The carpet of microbubbles reduces fuel consumption by between 5 and 10%.

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/maersk-boxship-to-trial-silverstream-air-bubble-system/

But what does MSAR also do, it increases fuel efficiency by between 6 - 9%, which in turn reduces fuel consumption, and means 5 - 9% lower CO2 and GHG emissions compared to HSFO. And it's 10% cheaper to buy than IFO380. Switching to MSAR would require a ~£250k retrofit per ship to install new fuel lines, etc.

It couldn't possibly be, could it? Nah, probably not, about a 25/1 shot at least. This is Quadrise we're talking about, the company that continually grasps defeat from the jaws of victory. But very occasionally, these long shots do make it ;-)

2 news articles from yesterday.

https://elceo.com/economia/pemex-suavizara-impacto-de-refinerias-con-inversiones-asg/

Pemex will ‘soften’ impact of refineries with ESG investments

Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) are working on a plan with investors to incorporate environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) criteria in the oil company through changes in the refineries, said the agency's undersecretary, Gabriel Yorio.

"(Investors) already have a plan, they have investments looking to reconfigure some refineries to reduce fuel oil, so they are already getting involved in these strategies," the official said while participating in a Eurasia Group event.

Yorio acknowledged that adopting this approach is particularly challenging for oil companies because of the role they play in climate change, but considered it a necessary effort to combat it and reduce emissions.

The state oil company currently has six refineries, which were built in the 1970s and are in a rehabilitation process, for which the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador has allocated 33.581 million pesos, according to President.

But sector specialists consider that the amount is miniscule compared to the needs of these complexes and that some continue to operate well below their refining capacity.

Meanwhile, the production of fuel oil, a polluting and low-value by-product of the refining process, has been on the rise.

From January to October of this year, the oil amounted to 245,397 barrels per day on average, an increase of 43.2% compared to the same period of the previous year, according to data from the Energy Information System of the Ministry of Energy

Pemex's ability to reduce its fuel oil production depends on the reconfiguration of the National Refining System, which requires cokers and desulfurization plants.

https://www.bloomberglinea.com/2021/12/07/reforma-electrica-en-mexico-seria-modificada-con-base-en-el-debate-gabriel-yorio/

"Yorio said that, as part of the announcement for Pemex, a new work model for the oil company and a business plan to increase efficiency and profitability are currently being discussed."

Also good news -

https://www.wartsila.com/media/news/29-11-2021-wartsila-starts-execution-of-600-mw-power-plants-projects-to-mexico-3015324

The Wärtsilä 50DF and 34DF are 4-stroke dual-fuel engines, which can operate on LNG or liquid fuels (LFO, HFO or liquid bio fuel). So no problem to run them on MSAR or bioMSAR.

Our current number 1 hope is now Utah, TomCo start drilling 3 exploratory wells next week, Valkor will also be drilling soon on a different site. They both seem to be pushing this through as fast as they can, no great surprise given the current oil price. Fingers crossed the wells are successful, and we might have a couple of licence agreements signed in the next 6 - 8 weeks, presuming that together we can find an end user for the product.

So much for MSC being the great partner we were hoping for, they now seem about as reliable as their Danish mates in the 2M alliance.

Heading back to 2p a share, they might be in for a frosty reception from the shareholders who manage to turn up at noon. I don't think Kirky boy is going to be getting a standing ovation on his departure.

MSC really do seem eager, from the initial RNS in January, over 10 months ago -

Initial activities under the JDA will include project initiation, definition, high-level scoping and feasibility activities ("Initial Activities") of the overall Trial. The Initial Activities are to be completed within 3 months.

Contingent on the outcome of the Initial Activities the parties will progress and define the project roadmap during Q2'21 in preparation for the execution of one or more Trials commencing in H2'21 on representative commercial vessels in MSC's global fleet ("Phase 1"). Upon completion and success of Phase 1, and subject to further agreement between the parties, the JDA envisages subsequent commercial roll-out across the MSC global fleet ("Phase 2").

Maybe it was a typo in the original RNS, maybe they meant to say H2 2022!! I hope they're going to start work soon at QRF on making an emulsion fuel with deuterium and tritium, because the whole world will be running on nuclear fusion by the time this lot get close to commercialisation.

Just over three months ago, they had the cheek to say this in their inaugural blog -

"We are currently providing feedback to MSC on the positive test results at VTT carried out on a medium speed Wärtsilä engine, and the plan remains to commence the on-board vessel trials by the end of 2021."

Then they said it would be H1 2022, today it's been put back even further to H2 2022.

CAN. KICK. ROAD. DOWN.

If somebody is at the AGM on Friday and Mike comes out with the classic line that "2022 is going to be the year that Quadrise finally delivers for its shareholders", can they remind him of this -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juo0QqsdV9k&t=398s

34 months later, we're still waiting.

Not sure dazzle, but it could be a significant reduction, a lot of energy has to be used to get the oil out in traditional SAGD.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/03/canadas-oil-sands-industry-is-taking-a-big-hit/

That won’t be easy, since bitumen production consumes energy in pursuit of more energy. Natural gas is burned to produce steam that’s injected underground to free up bitumen, which then requires more energy to be processed. Long transport distances enlarge the carbon footprint of the product, while chipping away at its profit margins.

Oil sands mining yields four to eight times the energy used to mine it, and in-situ oil sands extraction – which accounts for the majority of production – returns only 3.2 to 5.4 times the energy investment. Those figures don’t include transportation or final refining. By comparison, conventional oil brings a 10- to 20-fold return of the energy invested.

dazzle, Canadian costs are between $40 and $50 a barrel -

https://www.aer.ca/providing-information/data-and-reports/statistical-reports/st98/crude-bitumen/supply-costs

That could be reduced in Utah though, they might not be using steam to reduce the viscosity of the bitumen to get it to flow, Valkor are using HCD technology which should be cheaper, and New Day Energy are using RF waves, a bit like microwaving your dinner, the radio waves agitate the oil molecules and heat them up. Both would be more environmentally friendly too. They could also use some of the MSAR produced to make the steam if that's the preferred route, instead of buying gas to heat the water.

From the just released TOM interview, they are looking at producing 2,500 barrels a day from 25 in-situ wells. If they make bioMSAR from that, which they earlier said was the plan, that will be approximately 750 tons a day, so one 1000t/day MMU should be enough to cover that initial production. That's just on Tomco's site though, Valkor are also drilling on the HCD site which they bought the leases for. A similar output on that project would mean another MMU and bring QFI close to breakeven. Each MMU in licence mode is about $2m in revenue. Fingers crossed New Day Energy join the party too.

I always wondered if anyone ever paid for them, they're not cheap! I'm certainly not paying $3500 to read it.

A $7 billion increase by 2030? If we could get a contract for 15 million tons of MSAR in Mexico, that could add $7 billion to the total by the end of 2023. And that's before you add in Marine, Utah and any other projects.

Just posted on Twitter by Directors Talk

https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/555878844/emulsified-fuel-market-projected-to-hit-20-8-billion-by-2030

https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/emulsified-fuel-market-A07249

https://shipandbunker.com/news/world/551697-global-vlsfo-hsfo-spread-jumps-to-highest-since-imo-2020-transition

You might be right Fadec, it's not completely clear from the RNS. Originally the $1.5m was going to come from the third party, so I maybe incorrectly assumed that it was Valkor, given they have provided the loan this morning. But it could still be New Day Energy as you say, maybe discussions are still ongoing and rather than have yet another 4 week extension, Valkor have stepped in to help them out. We'll find out soon enough, lots of news on the horizon. There's going to be a lot of drilling in Utah in the coming months, from Tomco, Valkor and New Day Energy. The $110m funding package for the first 5,000 bpd plant is due before Christmas too.