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Today’s action isn't just momentum, it’s the market pricing Orom Cross as a Strategic Western Asset. 10%+ TGC surface grades slash Phase 1 OPEX, while 160% US tariffs give BRES a structural pricing advantage! With 98% of the tenement unexplored, I'm inclined to agree with Bonker, we could well be holding the Escondida of the graphite world. DFC backing is the ultimate institutional validation stamp for the £50M+ mandate trigger. The real value realisation begins when the majors realise they can't meet their 2027-2030 EV targets without Orom-Cross. Strong hands will be rewarded as the value gap closes. Onward to the AGM and the 'imminent' Iyan JORC upgrade!

Only my personal view.. But for a 2026/2027 buy-out I would expect between 50p and 90p (bidding war, perfect storm scenario). The debt/equity proportions and 2x JORC upgrades (Beehive is the ace card?) will be deciding factors...

It could be tempting to sell as we breach 10p and spike toward 15-20p... Taking a quick profit feels great. But if we flip shares now, we are walking into the ultimate institutional trap... At 15p, we would be handing over a sovereign-backed critical minerals asset for the price of a speculative explorer. Why give the big funds a 70% discount on our capital?

The old rules of junior mining don't apply here. The binary risk is dead. The 160% US tariffs have structurally protected our margins, and the DFC's involvement is a geopolitical shield. Orom-Cross is now a strategic necessity for the West... Look at yesterday's volume (10.4M). Smart Money is clearing out weak hands right before we cross the £50M market cap threshold. Once we cross £50M, institutional mandate funds are legally unlocked to flood in. There's no way I'm selling just as the biggest buyers arrive!

Then there's Friday's LTIP RNS... The Board's 30M options fully vest on a "Change of Control". MR and the team aren't grinding for a temporary 15p re-rate, they're actively positioning for a 50p+ premium buyout.

We've survived the painful 4p-8p grind. The heavy lifting (assays, tariffs, DFC due diligence) is done. Why leave the table right as the house prepares to pay out the jackpot? Let the institutions fight over the remaining float. Lock them away. Hold for the strategic exit.

(Not advice, just one shareholder's thoughts/opinion. DYOR and GLA!)

We don't know the true TVR at the moment, due to uncertainty around how many of the Block Listed warrants have been exercised this year. The latest TVR I recall seeing was around 478M which means at 9.7p the mcap is at least £46.3M... At 10.5p we're across the £50M threshold regardless of how many of these warrants have been admitted to the market. At the current price it would take 38M extra shares being announced to nudge the mcap beyond this important threshold, but with the technical setup and huge catalysts waiting in the wings, the next RNS should unlock this massive demand within days, hopefully? We aren't just close to crossing a tripwire, we're near opening the floodgates for institutional capital that has been legally sidelined until now!

Denying a free-carry stake would likely cause some jurisdictional friction and risk aggressive royalty hikes to compensate. On the other hand, formalising a government stake creates a shield, stabilising fiscal terms and aligning state interests with the project's success. This partnership de-risks the project for the DFC, fast-tracks export permits and secures the political certainty required for a premium buyout... It's not de-ramping, it's just a pragmatic real-world consideration

They did. But they have a close relationship, rightly so, with the government and are leaning heavily into in-country processing etc. A government stake is a juristictional shield, not something for investors to fear. I think the DFC would also welcome it. Personally I think it'll be part of the deal, but we'll have to wait and see

Agree with the valuation principles here, though I've been working on the assumption that Blencowe Resources will retain a 60-65% project stake after binding funding is announced. I can't see a situation where the Ugandan government doesn't take at least 15%, which it will realistically secure as a free carry, then depending how funding and acquisition play out, I can envisage a 20-25% strategic partner stake (Orion CMC perhaps) being part of the initial funding solution. This would mean the BRES stake of project NPV (which ought to increase following JORC upgrade) would need multiplying by 0.6 - 0.65 before calculating the pNAV multiple... At the moment I see the 50p 2026:buy out scenario as the most likely... But time will tell! GLA

20-30p would be an absolute gift to the buyer, leaving ~70% value on the table. It's an easier exit for them, and a win for all of us, but it doesn't squeeze enough juice out of everything they've built IMHO

Given the Directors just tied their personal wealth to the Phase 1 Funding in today’s LTIP RNS, they're unlikely to wipe out their own gains with a massive, discounted retail placing. They've been preparing for "Strategic Equity" from a partner who brings more than just cash...

A 2026 sale at around 50p may be the strategic path of least resistance now?

Nice Strategic Buy Signal, perfectly aligned with investor goals. Funding re-rate and Tier 1 buy out at a Strategic Premium. I hope they sell it after Phase 2 funding confirmed is personally. 2027/2028 ideally for the best Share Price

With exercise of warrants from the recent block listing, it's hard to know exactly what the TVR is at the moment. At this price range a TVR update could potentially reveal a £50M mcap at any moment... Combine that with a big news item like the JORC upgrade and the touch paper is lit!

With the exercise if war

Beehive assays would be a great catalyst right now

My current thesis with BRES revolves around the following core predictions, and that's all they are, not advice, ramping or inside knowledge... Just one person's humble opinion of what the next 2-3 years could have in store if execution is perfect (which is always a tall order). It could be wildly inaccurate and I'm sure there'll be some on this board who can educate me around where it over-reaches and over-simplifies. But no one can ignore the converging tailwinds behind Orom-Cross in 2026. The asset it HUGE, the purity is HIGH, the economics are INCREDIBLE, the Op-Ex is LOW, the western imperative is REAL and the clock is TICKING...

Here's how I see it at the moment...

Funding:

Likely Phase 1 + 2 combined (but far from guaranteed)

Debt Facility ~$100M (DFC?)

Project Level Equity Match ~$50M (Orion CMC?)

Offtake PrePayments ~$15M (Alkeemia/AETC?)

Admin Costs - One more small placement (£2-3M, but at a much higher share price?)

Project Ownership Post-Funding:

~65% BRES (~585M shares at future full dilution?)

~20% Strategic Partner

15% Ugandan Gov

Share Price:

Based on ~$1.5B NPV (accounting for JORC upgrade and US price floor providing a structural, derisking reset of the revenue calculations in the existing DFS)

2026 Q2 - 35p (0.2-0.3 pNAV) Binding Funding

2027 Q1 - 50p (0.4-0.5 pNAV) First Production

2028 - £1.00+ (0.8 pNAV or 6x EBITDA) - Potential Tier 1 Buy Out

Very strong hold for me.

The most significant macro news for BRES in 2026 so far. This is excellent for the Orom-Cross NPV, DFC funding and advancing US offtake agreements!

Big_Kahuna shared his summary in late December, and I think it was discussed again on 4th Feb. Companies House does seem to reveal steady increases in the total voting rights (admitted shares from exercise if warrants), but my suspicion is that the data there could be lagging weeks behind. I've decided to stop thinking about the warrants, I'm not selling in the short term.. no way! Once the big news breaks, very few of us will be giving a second thought to warrants (except those lucky enough to hold them!)

An interesting week ahead! There's Tesla vs Syrah tomorrow, it's the 'cure' deadline for their offtake breach. If it collapses, BRES could well become a prime alternative for US-bound graphite. Then it's worth watching for a binding move on the Alkeemia Joint Venture. Their 99.99% purification is the "Non-China" ticket OEMs are craving. When it comes to Strategic Partners for the equity stake I reckon we should be thinking much bigger than Gratomic or Leading Edge... Orion CMC, with the DFC on board, are the most likely big brother for a Phase 2 funding solution IMHO. https://www.orionrp.com/

GLA

Equity Gap = Strategic Partner stake. Wouldn't be surprised if Alkeemia showed a greater interest, also wouldn't be surprised if the DFC took an equity stake rather than purely providing debt. DoD/DoE interest very likely. I think it's extremely unlikely BRES will need to raise 15M through placing. But all IMHO

Relax Dusty. It's Q1 til April. Quiet, slow and vital work is happening in the background. He's not allowed to scream from the rooftops about it