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Update from Sasha on Telegram:

P1 has been the the main focus, they do have some advanced groups and looking to get to a term sheet (as discussed with Mike).

P1 is looking at project level equity with strategics - idea to prevent plc level dilution by giving away early % of the project (P2 is debt, not P1).

Type of companies: whole range, from PE to DFI & Gov.

WaterBorne Capital: using as and when, they have delivered on their finance modelling and mine scheduling work.

We know the aim for P1 is project-level equity funding, which is great as it does 2 things: it eliminates (or vastly reduces) PLC dilution whilst providing the necessary 'equity match' that debt providers require for the subsequent $125M scale up. I suspect the 3000tpa of USPG in Phase 1 is about derisking the entire project, essentially proving to the phase 2 senior debt provider that 'we can build and operate a USPG facility in Uganda, consistently meeting customer specifications', as it's a lot of cash to ask for without proof of such capability... 3,000tpa is not an insignificant proof of concept, it is a serious first-stage commercial operation with meaningful revenue and will be critical for qualifying material with battery customers.

There is confusion regarding how Phase 1 CapEx evolved, but looking at the timeline clears it up..

In December 2025, the initial DFS outlined a US160M total CapEx, with Phase 1 strictly modelled at $40M solely for raw concentrate and micronised products. Downstream processing (USPG) was completely deferred. https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BRES/dfs-results-confirms-outstanding-economics-xnx7jo4d8dcmnm4.html

However, it appears management realised the necessity to prove in-country beneficiation early, to capture the higher margin and satisfy the operational prerequisites for institutional debt. By the March 2026 corporate presentation, we saw the strategic pivot: a commercial 3,000 tpa USPG facility at Gulu was pulled forward into Phase 1, increasing P1 CapEx to $45M. https://blencoweresourcesplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Blencowe-Presentation-March-2026-1.pdf

The May 2026 Optimised DFS formalised this, adjusting total CapEx to $170M (P1 $45M, P2 $125M). When management says the +6% costs are 'unchanged', they must mean the overarching debt requirement hasn't fundamentally broken, but Phase 1 now clearly funds a high-margin commercial downstream circuit (to de-risk execution early), not just a lab test.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BRES/orom-cross-graphite-dfs-npv10-up-15-to-us1254bn-hf5gbwfqmpzj7gu.html

"Blencowe notes the capital requirements are in the lowest percentile internationally and are highly competitive by industry standards, particularly as they cover both the Orom-Cross mining and processing operation and the beneficiation facility near Gulu."

Whilst the scale-up to 10,000tpa USPG was previously identified as a Phase 3 goal, the updated DFS RNS explicitly moves this forward into the Phase 2 ramp-up:

"The updated DFS incorporates a refined staged plan:

· P1: delivers up to 20,000tpa of 97% TGC concentrate at Orom-Cross plus up to 3,000tpa spheronised graphite from in-country beneficiation at a proposed facility near to Gulu.

· P2: delivers up to 70,000tpa of 97% TGC concentrate plus up to 10,000tpa USPG and expandables from in-country beneficiation.

The Company notes that all subsequent phases of growth beyond P2 Production are driven by demand and contracted sales, with Orom-Cross not constrained by potential production so much as by sell-through of higher-value product streams."

If you keep crying us a river, maybe they'll transfer to Mombasa by boat? Explorers trade on hype, BRES is no longer an explorer. The stock is in the well documented valley and 2026 has brought war, Ebola and a liquidity drain from small cap mining... This is your alpha by the way. Yes, financing changes the way it's valued by the market, but *optimal* financing is the goal... Every piece of news since January moves the needle towards better terms. You are literally investing in the fact the institutions haven't piled in on this yet... When your binary switch flicks on, we enter a new phase, but even then things take time and there is execution risk... 500%+ isn't coming in a matter of days or weeks.

Watching the daily shareprice must be exhausting. I'm happy watching the newsflow and the story develop, particularly in Q3 as this is where the project could redefine itself in terms of strategic importance. I'll care about the share price in September and December or if it falls below 6p in the meantime... Chin up :)

OK so this is just my attempt at reading between the lines (always DYOR). Gulu is really interesting and here's why I think so...

The optimised DFS (May 2026) confirmed that $45M Phase 1 CapEx includes the 3000 tpa Gulu USPG plant, (which from the 2024 MOU we can assume is funded 50/50 with Triessence, Singapore). But how is it so cheap?

Mike confirmed the technical partner is a Chinese powerhouse producing 100ktpa SPG (likely TaiDa or BTR). Using Chinese machinery and expertise keeps the CapEx low and ensures the plant works from day one.

Mike discusses MOU with Triessence (Singapore) and Chinese SPG Partner:

https://youtu.be/HuKMtpWLwsI?is=_4TcKhEwxoyxnQVg

However, this introduces geopolitical friction. Using Chinese equipment and management contracts risks being classified as a Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) which could jeopardise eligibility for parts of the US EV incentive market...

There's the possibility that Alkeemia, AETC or another company has stepped in to replace the Chinese partner, but we have no evidence (yet) to suggest this.

So if the governance structure can't avoid FEOC issues, what might the plan look like? One potential solution would be a strict geographic separation of product flows...

The Orom Cross Mine: Raw concentrate remains completely untainted, allowing bulk offtake to flow to Alkeemia (Europe), the US via AETC (Yunasko etc.) and potentially Project Vault, securing the DFC's Phase 2 debt facility.

Gulu Plant: By sacrificing US eligibility to protect the low CapEx, Triessence could then focus sales of the resulting USPG on less restrictive Korean and Japanese OEMs.

It looks like a deliberate dual-market strategy rather than a compromise... low-cost downstream processing for Asian markets, while preserving the flexibility of Orom Cross concentrate for Western supply chains.

IRA-compliant feedstock for the US: Check 🇺🇸

Non-Chinese feedstock for the EU: Check 🇪🇺

In-country USPG for Asian Markets: Check 🌏

Caveats:

While the logic is there, remember the exact identity of the 100ktpa Chinese SPG partner is still unconfirmed by the management. My thesis assumes a partner like TaiDa or BTR based on historical work, but until an official RNS names them, the exact compliance structure remains speculative.

Project finance and strategic tenders are highly complex. While Q3 is the targeted window for tender results and Alkeemia's FID, bureaucratic or legal delays could easily push these milestones into late 2026.

The 'geographic quarantine' strategy relies on US and EU institutions accepting that the raw concentrate is completely insulated from the potentially Chinese-managed Gulu plant. There is always a risk that strict US FEOC audits could look at a company-wide level and flag the project regardless of the suggested ring-fencing.

I would say that's fairly accurate Chilli. And I wouldn't be surprised if Q3 sees 19kt of Phase 1 non-binding offtake (Jilin and TaiDa) replaced with high volume strategic western supply eg. Providing a portion of the Alkeemia/IG6 annual feedstock & supply to US Project Vault via one of the assigned Trading Houses... East African supply has already been validated for this purpose via Traxy's 40ktpa graphite MOU with Sovereign Metals... If Chinese offtake is replaced with western offtake, this further derisks DFC debt for phase 2/3 scale-up by removing any FEOC links/concerns...

Q3 = "The great replacement"?

Just my thoughts guys. DYOR and GLA!

That facility in Venice is going to need some non-Chinese feedstock... "from a variety of sources" according to their own JV announcement. The JV is designed to process 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes per annum of graphite for the European market, so that equates to between 20-45ktpa raw flake concentrate...

In January BRES signed an LOI to send an initial 1,000 tpa of raw graphite concentrate from Orom-Cross to Alkeemia's Italian facility for toll beneficiation and purification. Alkeemia successfully tested Blencowe's concentrate, upgrading it to 99.99% purity using their proprietary, non-toxic European processing technology...

Alkeemia needs to lock in their upstream feedstock to finalise the exact operational costs for their impending FID.

On May 27 they signed their JV, on June 19 IG6 went into a trading halt to execute a capital raise, explicitly stating that the cash is being raised to complete the definitive engineering design, finalise localised cost modeling for the Porto Marghera site, and clear the remaining operational agreements required to trigger their Final Investment Decision. They're targeting early works and construction in Q3 2026 to protect their H2 2027 first-production target...

This makes Q3 the critical window for BRES. Alkeemia needs to convert the LOI into a binding offtake agreement to hand to its lenders as proof of secure feedstock before both boards legally sign off on the FID.

Although I just re-read the 29 May DFS Optimisation and would highlight this line: "Blencowe notes the capital requirements are in the lowest percentile internationally and are highly competitive by industry standards, particularly as they cover both the Orom-Cross mining and processing operation and the beneficiation facility near Gulu."

They increased the Phase 1 CapEx from $40M to $45M, presumably to absorb Western machinery costs but also to explicitly pull a modular 3,000tpa spheronisation circuit at Gulu forward into the first funding tranche, so they're not relying on toll processing for that!

I don't think I fully appreciated this before. This strategic pivot captures higher-margin, value-added product revenue much earlier in the project's life, rather than waiting for the larger debt-led Phase 2 scale-up.

This Cavendish note builds a very strong narrative for institutional buyers. The key to unlocking institutional capital is clear... landing the funding news and decisively crossing the £50M market cap barrier. Once those milestones are hit, a major rerating looks highly probable!

"Blencowe Resources (BRES): BUY

Site for Gulu Downstream has strong infrastructure

Blencowe Resources has secured (via option to purchase) a preferred site for the downstream processing operations associated with its 100%-owned Orom-Cross flake graphite project in Uganda. Located c35km north of Gulu, the 100-acre site provides direct access to low-cost hydro-linked grid power, a permanent water source and sufficient space to accommodate future expansions as Orom-Cross and downstream capacity ramp-up in tandem. Orom-Cross combines a large, scalable resource base with favourable orebody characteristics and metallurgy, a flake size distribution skewed towards higher-value larger flakes, good infrastructure (eg low-cost hydropower) and strong ESG credentials. The project is positioned to benefit from an ongoing structural shift in global graphite markets. Western OEMs and governments are intensifying efforts to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals and we understand they are prepared to pay premium prices for reliable long-term supply of high-quality ex-China graphite as a result. In our view, Blencowe is well differentiated versus peers that remain heavily exposed to commoditised small-flake concentrate markets. We reiterate our SOTP-based target price of 47.9p (representing 539% upside) and Buy recommendation."

I was drawn to the timeline here too, and assume this is part of Phase 2/3 derisking, most likely as required by the DFC? I recall the 3000tpa USPG DFS target specifically mentioning a facility near Gulu, but I had assumed this was clumsy wording, as I don't think (looking at the Cavendish research note) that phase 1 CapEx covers any construction of the spheronisation facility and I expect toll processing via Alkeemia and AETC will cover the phase 1 USPG target... Either way, this is very positive news and the type that institutions pay attention to, more of this is what we want to be seeing as negotiations progress. Q3 is looking good guys!

59:53

https://youtu.be/_D3tz9TpPJs?is=SRRJxEsMSSqaHpEo

For instant results, try roulette?

Also. I recall an interview from March/April where Mike stated they had submitted a European funding/grant application... This tallies with the statement made in January 2026 regarding Alkeemia's Letter of Intent: "The Company believes that establishing a European-based purification and toll treatment pathway also opens up potential access to European funding initiatives, where local processing, traceable supply chains and reduced reliance on Chinese-controlled processing routes are increasingly important criteria. The LOI with Alkeemia therefore strengthens Blencowe's positioning in ongoing discussions with European stakeholders across offtake, strategic partnerships and funding." Mike did also say that there was "much more to come" from the Alkeemia relationship than the 1000tpa LOI.

It also explains why Sasha has reminded investors that the focus is Multi-jurisdictional and not only on the US...

I for one, am very interested to find out more about this in the near term, as I suspect it could be one of the multiple pending strategic tenders we are soon to hear more about.

The minor funding delay is likely just protecting against early dilution before the Q3 tenders drop.... Management is playing this smart with the optimised $1.25B DFS in hand.

While AETC’s DoD-backed Phase II work (https://www.sbir.gov/awards/211100) links Orom-Cross to US defense and potential DIBC funding, it's not the only iron in the fire. They've hit 99.99% purity with Italy’s Alkeemia for Europe, got a 500tpa supercapacitor MOU with Yunasko, and beat benchmarks for synthetic diamonds!

Having US, European and industrial options gives the board significant leverage. This isn't just an EV battery story anymore, it's a multi-industry strategic asset. DYOR and GLA.

Https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-critical-minerals-pricing-plan-060656362.html?hl=en-GB

Why delay Phase 1 funding until a US price floor, Project Vault or slightly less premium/robust strategic tender is concrete?

To aggressively defend equity.

BRES wields unrivaled leverage with a low $45M CapEx, DFC validation, and 100% asset ownership. Funding is highly probable regardless of macro policy...

However, signing today in a depressed spot market allows strategic partners to demand larger equity stakes to offset pricing risk. By securing a sovereign US pricing shield first, BRES mathematically eliminates that spot risk. This forces funders to accept smaller stakes, protecting the PLC share structure and maximising shareholder upside. Ultimately it's not about if it funds, but how much we shareholders keep!

In Mike we trust...

It really is anyone's guess. But targeting a project-level equity grant between 20% and 30% is the logical range.

​BRES holds significant defensive leverage; a comfortable cash runway (£2.1m as of Q1 2026), a low $45M Phase 1 CapEx barrier, a US DFC right-of-first-refusal endorsement, and massive unmodeled resource expansion at Iyan and Beehive. So they aren't negotiating from a position of weakness... A 25% stake seems like it could be realistic because it satisfies the strategic partner's need for meaningful asset exposure while keeping BRES firmly in control as the majority operator ahead of a terminal buyout. Any grant pushing toward 49% would compromise operational control and damage the economics of the final corporate exit. Although Cavendish notes the 2019 mining lease shields the asset from the 2022 Ugandan Act's 15% state free-carry, it's always worth budgeting for minor local or state economic alignment before production begins... My conservative assumption is that BRES will retain approx 65% of the project, but we'll only know when we know

Come back at Christmas Computer. I wouldn't sell. Just busy yourself with other things for a while and we'll all laugh about it once we're holding a structurally different stock altogether

view from vox

a highly encouraging piece of research from yuen low, one of the wise old heads of mining analysis. the upside on offer is clearly significant and being recognised within the industry. blencowe’s shares have more than doubled in value over the past 12 months as the company has made substantial progress with orom-cross both in terms of drilling and the overall economics. on the strength of the cavendish analysis, though, it looks like those recent gains may be just the start of a comprehensive and meaningful re-rating. upside of more than 500% isn’t available everywhere, especially not from a project that’s so advanced.

https://www.**********.com/articles/cavendish-sees-518-upside-for-blencowe-as-it-sets-47-9p-target--54aae11

Corporate brokers operate under strict regulatory oversight. They are prohibited from publishing financial models based on hypothetical corporate transactions. Because a definitive agreement with a project-level equity partner is still under negotiation in the data room, Cavendish cannot invent a deal structure out of thin air... By modeling the absolute worst-case scenario, doubling the share count at the current rock-bottom price of 8p to fund Phase 1, Cavendish has effectively provided an institutional stress test for the asset.

The report explicitly demonstrates to institutional funds that even if management completely fails to execute a non-dilutive project-level deal, and instead chooses the most painful, dilutive retail funding route imaginable, the sheer scale of the Orom-Cross and Gulu cashflows still justifies an intrinsic value of 47.9p per share. It shows that the floor value of the business is dramatically higher than the current share price.

The fact that the worst-case compliance math yields a 518% upside target is the real story. Relax.