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I would expect any warrants expiring in May to be absorbed within a few sessions, it may temporarily blunt the news, but momentum will remain strong once term sheets are announced. I'm anticipating a stair-step re-rate as BRES transitions to Developer though, with waves of warrant related selling hitting the bid on the way up. I'd expect a slower grind rather than a clean spike, but as my optimistic horizon is a change of control in 2028+ I'm more than comfortable with this. It will continue to put steady cash into the treasury during construction, and as the overhang eventually melts away and Orom Cross starts producing, the stock should find it's feet at an appropriate valuation many multiples of where we are today

As far as I can tell the remaining approx 50.7M warrants will not expire en masse. Instead, they'll hit a staggered maturity wall:

​Near-Term (2026): Legacy 8p warrants (originally 6.4M) expire in May 2026.

​Mid-Term (2027): The massive 6p/6.5p block (totaling over 58M potential shares) hits maturity between September and November 2027.

​Long-Term (2028): The remaining 4p warrants (originally 7.7M) expire in August 2028.

As of 27 Jan the published Capital Structure included 64.8M Warrants (summarised as 4p, 6p and 8p) and 27.9M Options. The Chairman has since exercised 500,000 options (19 Mar) suggesting 14,125,218 warrants had been admitted up to 27 Mar. Total dilution including 30M LTIP (announced 20 Feb) = approx 600M shares

On 27 Jan TVR was 477.3M

On 13 Mar TVR was 485.3M

On 13 April TVR was 491.9M

@Browns - This is why I strongly suspect they're gagged atm. I expected a gear shift after the DIBC deadline though I didn't quite know what it would look like.. silence being a directive makes the most sense IMHO

14M sub 8p warrants executed then, and approx 50M still to go?

As far as I can tell, there are a few ways a company can legally hoard information before publication if circumstances require it... There's Market Abuse Regulation Article 17(4). If Blencowe is actively undergoing due diligence by the US Department of Defense (DIBC) or the DFC, releasing piecemeal drill assays would likely prejudice the ongoing negotiations, which satisfies condition #1 to legally delay disclosure OR they could have instructed Minrom to consolidate the remaining batches into the final JORC block model, classifying the individual lab returns as incomplete working data until the full audit is complete...

​Either way, it's a loud strategic pivot from their last official communication!

On 17th March, investors were promised assays in 'quick succession'. A month of near silence later, it seems management has had to pivot to consolidating batches (currently "progressing through validation") into the final JORC.

Why? One possibility is that when the AETC/DIBC submission (unverified but logical) closed on March 20th (RPP-CM-26), BRES likely hit a hard US DoD evaluation blackout when technical evaluation opened the following Monday (23rd). You can't legally drip-feed resource upgrades to the public while the Pentagon is actively modeling your feedstock for a federal grant. They were likely forced to scrap the retail PR plan and go strictly "pencils down" to comply with institutional due diligence...

A synchronised cascade seems probable soon. DoD window clears (AETC invited to submit a Phase 2 Full Project Proposal, though this will likely be confidential) triggering the Beehive JORC to drop (as the PR blackouts ends and audited proof of the underlying feedstock scale is necessitated), then ideally a Strategic Partner and DFC debt execute concurrently...

Just one investor's read of the silence, strictly speculative! Always DYOR. GLA

Looks like a strictly recycled update today, which doesn't break the MAR blackout - in fact, it can actually be a symptom of one persisting. There's likely some heavy lifting going on behind the curtain, but I'm not expecting the big funding and/or JORC news to land before mid-May, though it's anyone's guess. A good month for building a position

With Alkeemia targeting a June FID for their European processing hub and the Pentagon’s DIBC evaluation window for AETC likely closing in early May, both entities face the exact same bottleneck... the immediate need for binding, proven, ex-China feedstock! Blencowe’s data room is actively converging on these deadlines...

​Factor in China’s tightened MOFCOM export controls and Syrah’s recent dilution, and the US DFC’s mandate to deploy sovereign capital into de-risked assets has never been more urgent. The pending Beehive JORC upgrade and Phase 1 term sheets are inherently linked. This is unlikely to be a simple news vacuum, it's the synchronised quiet before a potential triple reveal (funding solution, resource upgrade, conditional offtake.. "brands"). April may be the final window to access this asset at such a severe discount to its fundamental value? Always DYOR!

Days since last BRES RNS: 21.

Days since last post on X: 15.

Funding activity in the graphite sector is increasing in volume but concentrating around government-vetted projects and sovereign-linked majors. The DIBC/US funding cycle has advanced past the solicitation phase into a "Strategic Silence" period, where pending awards are likely being finalized under non-disclosure. The emergence of the JOGMEC-France alliance suggests the capital pool for "Ex-China" graphite is expanding beyond purely US-centric sources.

You have to go back to the Christmas break to find a period where BRES' social media was quiet for this long... They have many reasons to sustain engagement as their initial Q1 target passes, making the silence even louder.

While boardroom mechanics must remain private, recent signals suggest Blencowe’s uncharacteristic silence is a mandatory regulatory (MAR) lockdown tied to advanced funding negotiations...

​March 17: Beehive assays promised in "quick succession" appear withheld, implying a commercial blackout to avoid selective disclosure.

​March 20: The US DIBC submission closed. A Q&A noted scalable SPG facilities from 2,000 to 10,000 MT. This flexibility appears relevant, perfectly accommodating a multi-partner matrix where BRES doesn't commit 100% of Phase 1 output to the US.

​March 23: DIBC technical evaluations began, naturally triggering a quiet period...

​Late March: Mike Ralston outlined a slower 'Option A' (single-party phase 1/phase 2 funding) versus 'Option B' (quicker, multi-party Phase 1 funding). A subsequent visit to BTR (Chinese FEOC) likely serves as geopolitical leverage, pressuring US committees to expedite Western funding.

​March 25–26: Alkeemia's European JV announcement theoretically solves the metallurgical puzzle, allowing BRES to route large flake to Europe and fines to the US.

​March 26: The DFC’s 20% equity stake in Syrah proves the US is actively executing sovereign graphite deals.

​Given these intersecting timelines, my read is that binding funding terms are most likely to be announced before the end of the month. Securing this capital breaks the regulatory silence and fundamentally anchors the timeline to achieve first commercial production in 2027.

All IMHO, DYOR.

Candler you're quite right. I’d convinced myself the Iyan/Beehive drilling was the nearest-term catalyst for a re-rate. However, Mike’s latest interview made it clear, speed-to-market for Phase 1 is the priority, using the existing DFS. The current news vacuum, especially on social media, paired with the US DIBC process suggests we might be in a commercial closing stage rather than a technical one...

What? You can't see the benefit of securing Phase 1 funding on current December DFS economics, enabling further infill drilling without raising capital via the market, and proving the mammoth OC scale once a funded developer? I'm here for at least 3 years, and I like what I'm seeing. I have literally zero worries about when the Beehive assays and JORC arrive, let that leg up come later. All the better for eventual change of control

While optimistic, ZangMan's model seems to ignore basic project finance. It assumes zero share dilution to fund massive CapEx, models 100% project ownership (ignoring government and strategic partner stakes), and applies tech-level 20x P/E multiples instead of a realistic 5x-8x for mining...

The March 17 RNS stated Beehive assays would be reported "in quick succession" once cleared by Minrom. The ongoing silence strongly suggests a regulatory blackout... Since Phase 1 funding relies on the existing DFS, avoiding new infill drilling (new mine plan) delays, the Q1 miss isn't a technical failure but likely a commercial lockdown. My guess is we're waiting on sovereign credit committees and lawyers, not geologists!

Bonzo it's always difficult/risky to speculate a future SP and the Iran War and warrant overhang *could* present a substantial haircut. So after a binding P1 funding announcement I'd expect the SP to work it's way up towards 15-25p.. with construction progress, easing macro environment and confirmed offtake this could easily push towards 35-40p... The fair project value, after Beehive JORC, is likely much higher but funding structure/equity portion/total PLC TVR etc will all impact how the MCAP moves as this progresses to first production. All just speculative opinion, always DYOR

The short-term price action is ugly, but it doesn't change my 2028 thesis. Silence is frustrating given their usual communication rate, but we have to be realistic about what BRES is currently trying to execute. Transitioning from a speculative explorer to a US Defense-backed supply chain means operating on DoD/DFC timelines, not retail Q1 targets. If they are in the final stages of the DIBC submission review or funding negotiations, MAR rules strictly prohibit them from drip-feeding minor news... Bureaucratic gears move slowly, but I'm holding firm for the structural re-rate, not the daily ticker..

PR silence in the final stages of financing is not necessarily suspicious.. particularly if securing defense offtake and DFC equity/debt? The Chairman has been exercising options and LTIP is tied to successful P1 financing.. I'm just gradually buying the fear around 7p

All that's needed here is patience.. The asset becomes ever stronger while the markets are in risk off mode, supply chains are fractured and America is at war... Things will move along but Mike can only control what is within his gift... The optionality here is great, however emotionally managing the orphan period is not, but when the asset is this strong, current SP volatility is noise IMHO. It's gonna be fireworks, we just don't know when the show starts