Member Info for FortunaFavet

*would* make sense for the demands within the mineral agreement to be less aggressive.. oops

My feeling is that Blencowe will have been modelling a non-dilutive 15% Ugandan Govt free-carry, which is objectively fair, in my view anyway. Most investors and funds will probably have factored this in. The DFC's involvement makes Orom Cross part of a strategic US-Uganda relationship though, so it wouldn't make sense for the demands within the mineral agreement to be less aggressive because extreme demands could prevent funding being secured (15% of 0 is 0), and it could generate broader diplomatic headaches for the country, who will want a ticket to the EV revolution. They will be rightly keen to have the phase 2 purification facility for "clean graphite" funded and built in Uganda. Changing the 15% stake now would be "killing the golden goose" before it's laid a single graphite egg...

To be fair, 8p is likely to look like a steal come mid January!

Let's see if it can close at/above 7.6 tomorrow. Then I'm anticipating 8p+ on Monday.. though this post could age very quickly!

As I understand it USPG is the universal material required prior to coating. I believe it's a more 'universal' feedstock, providing significant upside with only a fraction of the technical complexity compared with CSPG. Different battery manufacturers use different coatings from what I've read, tailored to each company's specific needs. Producing ex-China USPG in the country of origin, using a thermal process (rather than hydrofluoric/hazardous flow sheet) saves significant logistical costs, meets the EU/US ESG requirements of Western OEMs and provides high margin whilst serving a broader range of potential offtakers. I believe this is why Orom Cross and the AETC are key to breaking China's monopoly, and why the DFC is so interested in the project, particularly phase 2.

I've a modest position of 150,000 at 7.4p. Your December comments on this board suggest you see the same potential in the Orom Cross project, but alas, you are still working towards becoming the expert too. Enjoy the ride :)

Definitely not here to be an expert, I think I showed my hand on that one with the AIM gaffe! I do what reading I can around the day job but was genuinely interested in the views of others, who likely do have more expertise! Once again, thanks for a friendly and rational reply

I wondered if the higher grade (~7%) near surface at Beehive would reduce AISC for the first 10 years, pushing the value up?

Yes. I've just joined this evening, not to guide anyone as I highlighted I'm new here. I was outlining the projections (not answers) I'm working to, with the intention of drawing out opinion and discussion from others. I made some predictions so with DYOR I was just underlining that I do not claim to be an expert. Thanks for the warm welcome guys

I expect they'll pull a 2022-equivalent setup into arrangements for financial close, serving as useful derisking, no?

BRES is my first Junior Mining trade. I'm starting to trust that I've picked well. Anticipating the JORC upgrade will lift NPV above $1.5B, Blencowe will have a 65% project stake in Orom Cross after the binding funding RNS (with the Ugandan Government taking 15% and a Strategic Partner taking 20%), Phase 1 and Phase 2 funding to be secured concurrently in Q1/Q2 2026 and 575-600M shares at full dilution. Whilst I'll most likely top-slice my initial capital after the funding rerate, it would be great to see a share price of £1.30-£1.50 by mid-2027, where we might expect an acquisition at 1.2NPV best case?

How do others see the long hold panning out?

This is just my opinion and I'm new to the AIM market, dyor and good luck