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The Syrah deal is more of a distressed bailout than a strategic preference. The DFC took equity to rescue a cash-burning producer from collapsing under Chinese price-dumping. BRES is an unencumbered developer. Orom-Cross doesn't need a corporate rescue package, it requires structured project finance debt underwritten by its massive Phase 1/2 economics... Due diligence and project finance take time...

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mike-ralston-8016684_copper-demand-gets-all-the-headlines-but-activity-7441751787633532928-ciSR?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAAAdnpg0BQG3HNowIafNhqbswJpbenvUxfds

Talk about tailwinds...

https://x.com/i/status/2033813170767466797

By launching T-Pro 6C (game changing because it solves the fast-charging problem for natural flake) BTR has created a massive new demand for High-Purity Natural Flake. Meanwhile, the London Market is ignoring the fact that the world's largest anode producer just released a technology that specifically requires the exact material BRES is sitting on. Remember, BRES sent a 100-tonne bulk sample to a "Strategic Partner" (in China) for testing back in 2022. That volume is what's needed to run full-scale production trials for a new anode line (like T-Pro).

"Blencowe signed a strategic MOU with BTR to conduct large-scale metallurgical testing and potential future offtake" - Where have you read this Jam? I'm not sure..

The market's been yawning at Beehive’s grades due to risk-off macro, but the real catalyst isn't geology, it’s the Pentagon... This Friday’s DIBC deadline is a key milestone (happy to be corrected if others disagree). Partner AETC needs Orom-Cross’s 99.9% purity for their US processing bid... The DIBC solicitation for "Domestic Processing Capabilities of Critical Minerals" is essentially a bespoke funding vehicle for high-purity processors like AETC and missing a window that can offer $100M+ in non-dilutive federal funding for their core business would be a catastrophic strategic failure. For a company that's spent years qualifying Ugandan material, the submission is likely the culmination of their business plan, rather than an optional task.

So I expect some form of 'Strategic Update' RNS by early next week as a disclosure delay would likely contravene UK Market Abuse Regulations. It won't be Binding Funding yet, DoD due diligence takes time, but a formal submission would confirm BRES is officially in the US sovereign supply chain. In this climate the news might land on deaf ears initially, but hopefully a move toward a binding partnership will follow (game-changer). With an RSI of 32 (oversold) and 50-day DMA support holding, the value shift starts now?

Why would the DFC materially assist a project that benefits FEOCs? (they likely wouldn't) If Orom-Cross were to lock in 50% - 70% of its offtake to companies like Qingdao TaiDa or Jilin, the US government would essentially view its funding as a subsidy for the Chinese battery supply chain... This is likely why Mike is subtly talking about 'brands' and new (western aligned) offtakers after trips to the US. I can see why some of the existing non-binding offtake agreements would not become binding. Investors must have noted the strategic pivot to US and European processing/offtake/defence? I suspect there are some VERY good reasons why Mike is limited in what he can say (possible NDAs, he can't put the cart before the horse etc) and I'm personally watching AETC, the DIBC solicitation deadline (20th March) and Project Vault. The vault won't touch 'dirty' supply chains so it would make sense for BRES to be scrubbing its Chinese LOIs to ensure Orom-Cross is 100% compliant for US EXIM and Project Vault procurement. The Q2 slide shouldn't be seen as a delay, it's possibly an upgrade to a US-backed strategic tier and I'm comfortable with binding funding being announced in Q2. The main risk I see here is execution lag, being tethered to the DoD timelines may result in slower progress than private commercial deals... All IMHO. DYOR.

The price action isn't a rejection of the asset, but a re-weighting of risk. We’re seeing a global liquidity drain due to Iran, combined with the market recalibrating NPVs for the entire graphite sector following the ITC tariff reversal... While BRES remains comfortably in its Q1 guidance, the market could also be pricing in the execution risk of the Beehive data (arriving later than hoped) and absence of a solid funding update. The post on X suggests the technical data is imminent, but until that validates an optimised mine plan, the market appears to be waiting on the sidelines.. it's going to be an interesting week!

I was puzzled by the ITC decision until I realised you can't protect an industry that doesn't exist yet (domestic AAM production is minimal or still under construction). Slapping heavy tariffs on graphite right now would only crush American battery makers who lack domestic alternatives. The US must first build its ex-china supply chain (via direct subsidies and capital injections?) Protective tariffs can return later, once domestic production exists to defend. As a first-quartile cost producer ($485/t) backed by the DFC BRES is already integrated into the US development pipeline, it offers the scale and margins to thrive where high-cost peers fail. It remains the strategic, low-cost anchor the Western supply chain requires to survive global competition.

His 500,000 shares to be admitted on the 19th. DIBC deadline on 20th... Just saying

Unlike high-cost Western projects (Syrah, Westwater etc.) that might rely on protective trade barriers to remain viable, BRES is a first-quartile cost producer ($485/t). With the Iran conflict currently spiking global shipping and energy costs, Orom-Cross’s low OPEX provides a much needed buffer against macro volatility which is squeezing thinner-margin peers. The ITC decision to drop the 160% tariff could actually be a strategic pivot. It essentially signals that trade laws alone are too fragile to protect the Western supply chain. This likely nudges the US Gov toward Direct Capital Injection, using tools like the DIBC (closing March 20) to fund domestic processors like AETC...

​Securely funding the US processing plant could provide the 'guaranteed destination' needed for the DFC to unlock the $40M Phase 1 mine funding in Uganda... By supporting the US end of the integrated supply chain, the government would effectively de-risk the African mining operation... Add in the impending Beehive JORC upgrade (which is set to materially expand the mine's scale and overall NPV) and the project's underlying economics are strengthening just as the US is forced to secure its supply lines.

The March 20th deadline remains a key structural trigger for a re-rate, regardless of short-term tariff noise...

Unless they update the TVR within the Phase 1 funding RNS (which is possible)... For patient investors waiting for the re-rate and/or acquisition, the remaining warrant overhang is secondary to the de-risking story. Each exercised warrant is cash in the bank. Once the US/Strategic funding is binding, the valuation, volume and profile of BRES shifts so fundamentally that these early warrants lose their power to cap the price. We’re moving from 'junior explorer' to 'funded producer'. A different league of liquidity :)

Https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/british-mining-firm-discovers-graphite-deposit-in-uganda-amid-uschina-race-for-ev/jmz8y7d

You didn't fancy 5 pints down The Royal Oak Spank?

This is an analytical perspective based on past newsflow/interviews and includes some AI logical inference, it is NOT financial advice. Always DYOR.

The next 6–8 weeks will likely define Blencowe’s shift from explorer to strategic asset. Securing Phase 1 funding ($40M–$50M) will probably require a refined offtake basket to satisfy sovereign debt providers and protect against PLC dilution.

To unlock US cornerstone debt (via DFC), BRES will likely need to replace legacy Chinese offtakers with FEOC-compliant Western partners. The Capex could also rise toward $50M if US funding mandates the use of non-Chinese procurement, a Security Premium that ultimately de-risks the asset from geopolitical friction.

1. US Defense: AETC's DoD (and possible DIBC) links enable processing into 99.99% material, potentially positioning Orom-Cross as a cornerstone of the US-aligned graphite supply chain

2. EU (Alkeemia): Italian toll-processing can deliver high-margin, IRA-compliant feedstock for brands/OEMs and the synthetic diamond market.

3. Baseload Concentrate: Transitioning 96% concentrate to Western industrial buyers would ensure clean cash flow to service sovereign debt.

Phase 1 is the bridge to the ultimate prize: the Phase 2 Ugandan SPG facility. In-country processing is non-negotiable for maximum value, it eliminates the freight penalty of shipping waste and captures full downstream margin. While high-grade JORCs provide the scale (>50Mt), the recent deep-hole drilling creates the multi-decade scale that typically marks Orom-Cross as a prime acquisition target.

A fully integrated, hydro-powered facility on a multi-generational resource makes Orom-Cross the ideal prospect for a Tier-1 major to take control in the next few years... now bring on the Beehive assays to chase that 50Mt milestone, the refined Western offtake news, and the ITC's 'final affirmative injury determination' to officially lock China out of the US supply chain

🚀 Hypersonic Missile Nose Cones: Withstanding friction-induced heat of 3,000C at Mach 5+.

☢️ SMR Fuel Pebbles: Serving as the "neutron moderator" in the next generation of safe, small nuclear reactors.

💥 "Blackout Bombs" (CBU-94/B): The specialized payloads used to neutralize power grids without firing a shot.

💎 High-End Synthetic Diamonds: The ultra-pure carbon precursor needed for the lab-grown gemstone and industrial markets.

👤 Stealth Coatings: The radar-absorbent materials that keep an F-35 "invisible" to enemy sensors.

🤖 AI Chip Production: The high-purity "crucibles" required to grow the silicon-carbide wafers that power Nvidia and AMD chips.

Before Christmas the narrative coming out was JORC Upgrade (singular) prior to funding... Then we learned, through no fault of management's, that the assay results were coming out of the South African lab very slowly, and that appeared to trigger the pivot to 'progressive' reporting of assays and two separate maiden JORC upgrades (smart move from Mike and team). From early February the RNS wording shifted to target all Iyan results by end of Feb and Beehive in due course. Given that Q1 has remained the funding target I'm reading it that Iyan proves the scale enough for equity partners + debt providers, Heads of Terms validates the build and re-rates the company to 'developer-in-waiting' and then the Beehive (highest grades yet?) provides the kicker to further lift the share price into true Tier 1 territory. It might be a waste to drop the Beehive JORC before Phase 1 funding, given it should have a greater effect on the share price proving the monster scale (smashing through the 50Mt threshold) after being financially derisked...

I think we'll get batches of Beehive assays this month, but the JORC upgrade likely in Q2, ideally after a Phase 1 funding RNS

I picked up on the "bear with us" comment too. And with the asymmetry of upside here we'd be crazy not to!

The recent 220% US tariffs on Chinese graphite, combined with the Pentagon’s March 20th Defense Industrial Base Consortium (DIBC) solicitation, have transformed Orom-Cross from a standard EV commodity play into a US National Security asset. With AETC’s Phase 2 DoD award completed, Blencowe is effectively pre-qualified for Phase 3 defense development funds. While securing a strategic equity partner (Orion?) or OEM is the logical, fast-track solution to fund the $40M Phase 1 Capex, this may also be leveraged as the catalyst to unlock Phase 2. Securing Phase 1 immediately validates the project for the DFC and Pentagon, positioning Blencowe to capture non-dilutive, war-era expansion capital. The DoD needs shovel-ready, 40-year life-of-mine solutions today.

VW and GM will be particularly keen to reduce their supply costs... https://www.mining.com/ranked-top-20-automakers-by-battery-metals-spending/

Fluctuating around the £50M MCAP amplifies the volatility here. Meanwhile we tick ever closer to the sleeping giant's alarm clock...