Member Info for Fortissimo

BHP offered Noront 55 cents I think when their share price was around 26 cents so huge premium. They also had no shame coming back a few weeks later offering nearly 50% more with 75 cent offer. The got beaten by Wyloo who just stormed it with a whopping 110 cents offer. The latter effectively told BHP to feck off. The stock went from 25 cents before a bid to 110 cents final offer in space of couple of months!

So there's no embarrassment in offering low numbers and then offering much higher numbers. All part of the game... apparently.

Bradlmi1, agreed. I think they've let themselves down and actually handed BHP some hope as prior to the poorly considered lowball, the chinese were offering onsite advice/assistance and they had or have Mr Liu on board. After the 6% CGP cheap placing to them, I guess BHP would be thinking it's game over... the chinese have it in the bag. But after 2 poorly judged offers, our board have stuck the middle finger up and pushed it into the standard 30 day PutUp or ShutUp period.

BHP must be licking their lips as the chinese completely mess up and lose their previously unique position.

Tier1 mines in a global hot metals market do not go for less £2bln imho. Offering £800m is going to be laughed at by the industry.

Look... it's great to see some newbies on here but please do some research into the stock. SOLG was 42p+ a few years back and today is in far better shape with metal prices also having doubled.

Look up another Ecuador miner called Solaris Resources on canadian market TSX. They have an asset called Warintza and they've only just done a PFS. SOLG's Tier1 asset is 3 to 5 x the size of theirs even based on a trimmed SOLG PFS. Solaris market cap is just shy of £1billion. SOLG is currently valued just under £900m. We also have Porvenir (huge numbers on that potential mine) and recently open pit at TAM plus 60 odd licences in Ecuador.

So in a nut shell... NO... the so isn't at 29.5p because of a Jiagnxi bid. It's 29.5p and working it's way up the lassonde Curve (google it).

This is not some kind of hype stock... it's a company that has a top ten global tier 1 mine. It's a company that already has BHP, Jiagnxi and NMM on the share register.

It's worth well north of £2 a share but to a buyer taking the plunge before various permits are in place... there's always a discount.

So those looking in and thinking that it's going slide back if chinese pull out are going to be mistaken. This stock was rerating back to 30p+ anyway which is why the chinese made a bid ... it's running away from them and they don't like it. Especially after (according to a few on here) they've held the share price down through various trading methods on the stocks book.

I do hope Dan and Paul make sure that LSE are paying close attention to the trading here on as defo some spoofing been going on. They've been desperate to keep a lid on this one and now we know why.

MSCI reshuffle due on Feb 10th 26th and I believe we'll be added to it. That's going to see a bucket load of fund mangers as forced buyers ploughing their way into the stock. So Jiangxi best get their best offer in pronto or else this stock is going to leave them behind. It aint slipping back much before going higher as the news flow due over next 4 weeks is huge.

Do your research.

The offer was a poor one and I can't see how that can reflect well from our 12% shareholder. One thing is putting in a cheap bid but 26p is derisory and rather unfriendly. These guys are or were currently offering technical assistance on the ground and have close relationship with our board due to Mr Liu being on there... he's their man. And then there's the 6% CGP shares our board gifted them at 9p!!! So SOLG have been very very helpful toward the chinese. And this is how they repay that with a pony offer??

If they fail to make a proper offer or refrain from making an offer at all before Dec deadline, then I think it's time to end all technical assistance. Mr Liu has to go with immediate effect. And in future, no equity to be given to them at all.

They are not 'partners', they are predators.

It's an own goal from them imho and only reason they would do that is because they know they are out of the game already. Perhaps a JV deal is coming from somewhere else or perhaps they know Noboa and agreed with Trump that the chinese are not getting a look in and they want to test the ground?

I don't think BHP will be feeling nervous at all. They might have felt ruffled if chinese had offered 40p+. You never know, that might still happen before end of Dec.

Mathersfinger... remember the first formal bid will set the dice rolling. From there a bid war can kick off. But first, you need a formal offer. Irwin's idea of value on SOLG is not inline with our management or Canaccord. If it was, he wouldn't say the chinese are being a 'litte' on the cheap side would he? He'd say the chinese are grossly undervaluing our asset etc etc. But he didn't as he wants to keep them in the game.

Time is ticking so regardless of the chinese, other bidders will need to make a move soon as those royalty buy back deadlines are not going away and sale processes take at least 6 months to finalise.

BHP didn't offer full whack for Noront initially but almost doubled their offer when someone else stepped up to the plate. Someone needs to show they are in the fight to get things moving and the chinese have signalled to the market that they want the asset.

One thing is sure ... they wont get it cheap. Tier1 mines in a metals boom don't go cheapily. That's a fact.

I'm expecting Dan and Paul to get some serious sp boosting news out over next few days and weeks. CIPA being one.

On a side note, perhaps Noboa's trip to UAE and US etc along with mining representative earlier suggests that SOLG might be doing a JV deal. Chinese got wind of this and don't like it... so have gone hostile?? We'll know more soon and as the RNS on Friday hints... more news to follow.

I think Irwin's a bit worried this could run away from the chinese... he wants them to make another bid... not walk away. There's a game of cat and mouse here... if sp is mid 30's next week then chinese will have to bid in the 40's. If the sp is held back at around 28p/29p levels, then they can come with offer at 34p or something etc. Likely to be rejected again but if formal it might then draw out counter bids etc.

Trouble is and what Irwin really hasn't factored into the picture is that when CIPA drops and updated PFS etc inc ExploreCo, the sp should be in 40's.

So why would anyone take money off table based on Jiagnxi bid scenario when the upside based on news is going to deliver far more than what's being offered right now.

Canaccord have 46p target. Our own management are targeting the 30's for end of year and that's not based on bid scenario but rerate on news.

'I have zero idea how things will play out'.

Is this guy supposed to be a fund manager?

Clueless is an understatement. If I had money in any of his funds, I'd be taking my out out pronto.

I think these are my key takeaways from Jiangxi low ball offer

1. Jiagnxi have clearly seen enough now to be confident of making a bid. And that's without CIPA, without EIS/environment licence and a few other key permits... so that demonstrates a serious amount of trust and understanding about Ecuador / Noboa right now.

2. The timing is important as already covered off in previous posts. If they fail on this early bid, then they have to wait 6 months before bidding again unless SOLG request some concession/auction and invite them. This is important as the first royalty 50% buyback option expires in Q3 2026. Hence bidding again in 6 months time may just enable stuff to be sealed before that stream option expires.

3. Jiagnxi made a move BEFORE SOLG issued the MRE on TAM. There's a possibility that they already knew what that MRE would look like as they have apparently offered technical 'on the ground' advice to SOLG eg... code for ... they have people on site are close to ops (tut tut).

So here's the read through on the above

1. Point one in theory also applies to all other interested parties out there and we know there has been a few. If the time is right for the chinese then it's also now the right time for BHP, NMM and or Barrick, Anglo, Rio, Glencore and so on.

2. Same applies with other bidders. No bidder wants to be locked out for 6 months and no bidder wants to see the royalty stream 50% buy back lapse. So now is the time to bid in that respect. That applies to all above majors.

3. SOLG released the MRE without defining the key details on hole 77. That was included in the MRE, but we didn't get the grade or length/depth guides. Are SOLG keeping power dry on that hole as it's the first of the step out on TAM west??? Mmm! More drilling is ongoing right now so watch this space.

All in all... some might say that Jiagnxi made the early move as they were able to have onsite knowledge due to their technical assistance deal struck back in April this year. However, by making the first move, they have signalled to all other predators / buyers for Cascabel that it's now a derisked buy. Quite amazing considering there are loads of permits still due in. That said, I think BHP made some M&A moves over last few years on assets that also lacked key permits.

Bottom line... Jiangxi early bid actually derisks the asset in the eyes of other predators as chinese are notoriously sensitive to and don't rush into things. They've effectively told everyone out there that Cascabel / SOLG is safe to bid on (subject to the usual due diligence).

The time is right now for BHP to have a go too but suspect they'll keep powder dry and see how Jiagnxi get on first.

Exciting times... roll on Monday!

What also needs to be done pronto is the new Cascabel PFS with updated metal prices and TAM bolted on.

Dan did say this would be coming before year end and I suspect that really needs to land fast now so the market and all involved can see what a monster cascabel is when it comes to resources and NPV/IRR etc.

I'm expecting the next 4 weeks to feel 'busy' with major news dropping fast.

Eloro, politics defo a key mix here but remember Ecuador is a 'new' mining region and even Trump wouldn't expect to see 100% mines there as NON chinese. The latter are embedded into Ecuador and there's huge IMF issues based on the debt that chinese have facilitated to Ecuador. So there has to be some scratching backs. Cascabel is likely to be one of around 10 Tier 1 mines over a 20 year period is my guess. So if Chinese got Cascabel... built infrastructure, roads etc and started a mining provence... then you see other discoveries appear on other blocks which are not chinese owned... all benefit.

If Ecuador ended up with 10 tier mines and 2 of them were in chinese hands and 8 of them were in NON chinese hands... I think Trump would be very happy with that scenario.

Much bigger picture appearing here. Ironically... SOLG's folio of regional licence blocks (60 of them) likely holds the next 2 or 3 Tier 1 mines... so perhaps the regionals need to be split out of any deals pronto! Can't have chinese getting all of that folio imho.

Montecristo2, BHP wouldn't but NMM bought out NCM and inherited the SOLG stake. NMM have divested a lot of non core folio holdings and some thought it possible that they might divest SOLG when sp rerates. Ironically, I actually think Cascabel would be an amazing fit for NMM and spring board them into the super major category that their shareholders desire. They are a minnow compared to BHP and Jiagnxi but they certainly have the fire power to fund it.

With market regs underway, Jiagnxi are fre to approach NMM now without breaking concert rules.

Last year SOLG got the specials away but based on recent events, I'm guessing Jiagnxi (if unsuccessful) will certainly not be voting to empower SOLG board with financial flexibility. If NMM sort their act out this time around the big 3 holders could vote against and thus be very unhelpful. Folk need to remember that these 3 major holders are not friendlies. They are not here for the same investment story that majority of shareholders are here for. They are here for the asset... each one (with poss exception to NMM) want the Tier1 mine and all the regionals as the latter offers many other Tier1 mines in future.

None of them like the Franco / Osisko stream deals. And all of them would buy those streams back (50% buyback possible).

No wonder the AGM date was held up... we need as much time as possible now!

If they do make a formal bid before the deadline and that gets rejected, then they'll not be able to bid again until somewhere around June next year based on 6 month rule. If that situation unfolds, then it becomes pretty tight timewise to get any bid deal closed out before the first Franco/Osisko 50% buy back clause ends on the stream. That's the key for any buyer like Jiagnxi.

I think that's why they've gone now with an opportunistic test the water low ball. It still allows them time to go again next year.

The trouble is, the chances are SOLG will be 40p or 50p next year based on upcoming news and further derisking. At that stage, an offer from chinese in June 2026 will need to be 65p or 75p ranges and even then fairly heavily discounted. SOLG may also have the ExploreCo sorted. So bit more complicated to purchase compared to all share offer. Remember, we have Porvenir (MRE stage) and 60 odd licence blocks in Ecuador.

That said, going early and going low ball has it's advantages. For instance the main one is destabilisation of SOLG and the register. If... and it's a big IF they can get NMM to sell them their 10% stake, then Jiagnxi will be looking much stronger holding close to 23%+ and possible they could get to the magic 29.9% level. Yesterdays fun and games thus also allows Jiagnxi to discuss offers sale directly with NMM and BHP should they decided to without falling into the regs regarding concert partners etc. The latter is frowned upon (eg jiagnxi agreeing with NMM/BHP to a JV in future if they sit back and allow low ball).

So in summary, the starter gun has gone and now all involved can scramble around and seek to strengthen their positions or our defense etc.

Jiagnxi might try and tease out some infighting between likes of Scott, Maxit, Mather and a few others if they do finally pitch a bid at higher levels. I think that has to be 40p+ levels myself to cause issues. If BoD's then present that to shareholders on basis that some insiders support it etc, then and only then I believe BHP will contemplate throwing their hat into the ring. I don't think BHP will let this huge regional opportunity slip them buy when it's small change to them at sub $5bln levels. £1+ achieveable for sure but be under no illusions... the fate of SOLG very much rests in the hands of our insiders and our major shareholders. If NMM accepts say 40p+ from jiagnxi and Maxit fold too at that level then everyone else turns it down, Jiagnxi will have close to 29% and that level of holding puts them at a distinct advantage over BHP.

Dan and Paul's job now is to deliver a firm defence. The TAM MRE was rushed out this week as the first step. But there's CIPA, ExploreCo, and more importantly a new valuation on Cascabel due via updated PFS on TAM modelling and updated metal prices.

In nut shell, we had and have the news to support a share price well into the 40's without a chinese bid sitution etc. They knew this and that's why they've acted now.

The problem with the chinese is that they have a few large mining companies out there and they are all state owned effectively meaning they are the same thing. Hence this allows them to test the water or make failed bids through companies like Jiagnxi only then to come in weeks later with a new id from someone like Zijin Mining.

IMHO the takeover panel should prevent 'ALL' chinese companies from making approaches to listed companies for 6 months if one chinese company has failed.

Otherwise, it's so easy for them to just disrupt with low balls, see how things pan out.. test water etc and then use another entity to go again. That's unfair advantage. Remember, SOLG have or had TWO chinese companies on the register. 1. Jiagnxi and 2. Valuestone.

Years ago we know about the Noront Resources takeover battle with Wyloo and BHP. It started when the sp was 21cents and ended with Wyloo beating BHP with 110 cents bid. A whopping 5.5x the pre bid sp level. So starting bids are just that. However, what I will say is that I haven't seen many chinese companies out there bidding up assets or getting into elongated bid wars. If their first public bid is at 26p on SOLG, I can't see them going much higher than 42p myself. I can't see that succeeding but you never know... it might draw out NMM and see the latter sell out. That would give Jiagnxi 22.3% and even if they paid 42p to NMM, they'd still have an average buy in price around the 26p. That's the advantage they have with holding a 12.3% stake purchased at around 14p average.

Addicknt,

What about the technical advice/assistance that Jiagnxi have been giving us?? One would presume that ends if of course it started at all. I think it was more smoke and mirrors by SOLG which allowed JIagnxi to be 'onsite' etc. Our board have certainly been very helpful toward them. Gifting them 6%+ holding at 9p for starters! And then there's the matter of Mr Liu. Surely he needs to go now?

I can't understand the mentality myself... they know the Board well so why wouldn't they have tested the water with them first. 26p was their second offer which doesn't make much sense to me at all as if their first offer was lower, then one would guess Dan or Paul told them too low it needs to be much higher... and that resulted in 26p lol! Something doesn't add up here. My guess is the chinese have got a whiff that we have other options (poss UAE etc) and have decided to try and complicate things by preoccupying our BoD's with low ball offers.

Remember, Jiangxi have been here with the CGP boys since 2023. They know exactly what SOLG are worth and what the BoD's (minus that twot scott) are after. So why bother dropping a pathetic bid in? Are they trying to cause some infighting between Bob, Mather and Dan et al? Put the cat amongst the pigeons??

I think the chinese took 'Black Friday' a bit too seriously.

No cheap deals here i'm afraid.

I think lets see what the weekend press spin and take it from there. The chinese have 1 month to make a formal offer as per deadline set.

In the next 4 weeks, according to our CEO, we are due CIPA news, ExploreCo news, updated PFS and TAM modelling. All of that is huge. Once that's all dropped, the sp might be nearer 40p than 30p. At that juncture... it's pretty obvious that the chinese will need to offer something higher than that.

It's now down to Dan and Paul to deliver some shareholder value and get the above sorted asap as our defense against low balls.

BHP or NMM might just sit back and watch or they may decide to contact SOLG and have a discussion.

And then there's always a chance someone in the shadows like Barrick or Glencore or Anglo or Lundin step forward and present a better offer.

The starter gun has been fired and whilst it's low ball stuff... the ball is now rolling. Exciting times and long time coming for shareholders who have been here for longer than they should. This story should have been wrapped up 4 years ago.

If they do make a formal binding offer and it gets rejected again then they can't come and bid again for 6 months. That might not be a huge issue for them as it would still allow a new approach circa May next year which could give them time to still buy back the first royalty stream option (50% buyback) which ends in Oct 2026 I believe.

As we know, SOLG has yet to model in all data from TAM and update the PFS not to mention gaining CIPA and looking at regional spin offs. Once that all lands, then the sp should be in the 40's with ease. Chinese likely know this hence may as well take a cheap pop now. They have a 12% holding and are the largest shareholder so it's going to be interesting to see if they build their position further in open market. If they get to 15%+ or more, it starts to get heated.

Interesting times and what's more worrying is that this appears to have been ongoing over a period of weeks or months and during this time SOLG pulled out of doing conferences and marketing the business. Tut Tut.

Considering Jiagnxi were supposed to be a friendly... eg offering technical advice and lets face it... our board gifted them the CGP shares on the cheap... you'd think they are buddies with our Board. But 26p offer is so derisory that it shows they had no real respect for SOLG or our management. That's going to be tough to get over and Paul/Dan need to accept that they may have xxcked up here. The market may raise an eyebrow at past chinese deals that these two have been involved in too. As well as Sangha etc. They have a history of working 'with' the Chinese.

Hence this feels very unusual. If the starting bid was 36p, then I think it would have captured a bit more respect even if it was still seen as a very poor low ball.

Ecuador miner Solaris Resources hits just shy of a £1billion market cap.

Their asset is roughly twice the size of our TAM. And about a 5th or even 6th the size of our Alpala.

In a nutshell... the market has spoken and Solaris Resources at £1bln is a benchmark. So Mr Jiagnxi... can you explain why you think £800m is a fair price for SOLG???

Embarrassing stuff. I bet the mining world are laughing at them right now.

Just make a serious offer and skip the low ball nonsense. I dread to think what their first offer was lol!

Well... so much for a friendly offer!

So I was right then.

Must say I am surprised at the poor level of offer price. That would barely cover TAM on it's own.

One can only imagine that perhaps SOLG and Nobby (inc Trump Et al) have rubbed them up the wrong way. Perhaps they got wind of a JV deal with UAE backing and thought... we may as well chuck in a bid and try and scupper this.

There's no way NMM will be handing over there 10% to the Chinese at that price. And that's their second offer lol!

Anyone that thinks they were not behind the share price suppression over last year and start of this year needs a wake up call.

Personally, I think this is embarrassing for the chinese state and putting in poor offers like this only serves to add fuel to Trumps Anti Chinese stance on their resource banking.

Not sure where Jiagnxi can go from here and I mean that generally. They a busted flush in the mining world after this kind of stunt.

Poor very poor.