Member Info for Fortissimo

Addicknt, yes, it will be decided by the main shareholders as if Mather (10% inc DGR) and Newmont vote for a deal with Jiagnxi bid at xxp, then they'll have 32% and chuck in 10% retail and Bob Sangha and they'll almost be at the 50% level and that would be enough to put BHP out of picture.

I think there's sense in SOLG discussing pricing and thoughts with Newmont if they want to sell up and move on. But it's pointless discussing the same thing with BHP as it's not about share price value for them, it's always been the asset that they are after. And if they no longer want the asset, then they really couldn't give a to55 if it's 36p or 72p etc. It's smallfry to them.

At the moment we have one of the 3 main shareholders making a move. The other two have sat on their hands and historically tried to get the company on the cheap using their usual methods of diluting the little guy. This ended a while back when we did the royalty deals and they were put back in their box. Since then, they have remained on the register... and there's a reason for that. They want the option to 'decide' themselves whether they want this great asset and it's got better and better since they've sat on their hands... not worse. So had Jiagnxi not made the first bid, I suspect BHP might have made a move themselves. Who knows... did Jiagnxi get wind of something moving?? Noboa, UAE, Ecuador reps in US... it's all hotting up and I do wonder whether someone left field is going to come in a surprise us all. Someone like Glencore perhaps? They really need something juicy to get their mojo back and Paul knows them well. Our swiss Domicile fits well with their Swiss accounts/regional base. They are a huge commodity player. They would gain a decent control of copper market to US if they bagged SOLG.

So many ways this can play out and so many players out there that reall really need a Tier1 mine like this as well as the regional folio.

By the way... on Dec 12th (10 days time) or poss the 13th, we should find out who bid for Solaris's 12 x licence blocks that they put up for auction which included ENAMI stakes I believe. Wonder what name or names enter the ring there????

I'm fine with the strategy and it's coming to fruition. And if it doesn't kick off a bidding war which is clearly what they want then I suspect they'll have a plan B lined up (copper stream or JV or something else). We know the ExploreCo is planned and I suspect that's may have got Jiagnxi as well as others a bit upset as that folio has some cracking targets.

BHP and Newmont were doing nothing and just sitting on sidelines. They would continue to do that until they were forced to act. And here we are.

But here's the problem... for the plan to work Jiagnxi have to make the first bid (proper bid) and it has to be believable and ruffle BHP or others on the sidelines. 26p certainly does that but it also lacks any credibility as seems doomed to fail. What comes next is going to be the most interesting as if the board reject the next offer, then I can't see how the plan works. The plan works ONLY when the board recommend it. Then BHP have to act. If the next offer from Jiagnxi (my guess here) is 35p, then what happens if SOLG reject it (which they should do!). Only way it works is for them to recommend it and that would look very poor considering the asset is clearly work (on industry benchmark basis) north of £1 with ease.

One possibility is that Jiagnxi offer 36p but our board actually say that whilst they don't think it represents true value, they are interested in discussing it further eg... there's the phase where negotiations start to tighten up and that's when BHP and co start to sweat.

Negotiations may include a new offer that is specifically for ENSA and removes the regionals/Porvenir etc. Who knows...?

But for this work (if it is self created by SOLG with their chinese 'buddies'... then Jiagnxi need to make a much higher offer. Nudging it up to 32p won't cut it. It need to be significantly higher than the 26p presented last week.

I very much doubt the Chinese would have made a move without consulting Noboa/mining industry first. China are favoured by Ecuador due to IMF loans etc but that can change and no doubts there is more political pressure mounting now.

But based on SOLG's cancelled presentations and conferences which happend in October and November, it appears they have been in cosy discussions for sometime. That all said... the only reason shareholders got to hear of the second offer (we were not of the first offer or whether they were in talks) was because SOLG elected to make it public. Now I guess if the chinese didn't want it going public... well... perhaps they hadn't formally discussed it with Noboa?

What we haven't seen yet is what Paul & Dan have up their sleeve. Paul is supposed to be the master of M&A deals and thus far he's certainly got SOLG to the point where we are discussing offers albeit it poor ones. BHP and Newmont have done nothing but just sit on their hands. So this situation has been created to make all the major shareholders realise that they either need to make a move or SOLG are going to seek alternatives. That's already been to some extent with the $750m Franco/Osisko royalty stream deal. We haven't seen the specific copper stream deal yet but some think this is already cued up pending dev decision next year.

Monte... why would our board be in deep discussions with the other two main shareholders?? I presume you mean BHP and Newmont?

Lets just be clear here...

1. The CGP have past dealings with the chinese

2. The chinese were brought in by the CGP boys initially with 5% holding

3. Dan and Paul gifted the chinese a strong 12.2% through the issue of our CGP shares and they gifted them at 9p a share. That was poor.

4. Dan and Paul agreed to allow Jiagnxi to provide technical assistance to SOLG operations eg code for they can be onsite.. see data etc etc

5. As we know Mr Liu (Jiagnxi man) was brought onto the board

6. Prior to the first bid by Jiagnxi, Dan / SOLG has numerous presentations lined up at various conferences to help market the company. These started as early as October and were cancelled or pulled form no apparent reason. That now looks like SOLG were in talks with Jiagnxi for a while before the first offer. Mmm.

7. Dan and Paul have actively created this situation.

So based on the above, I'm not sure what you expect to come from discussions with BHP or Newmont. I expect the pair of them will say... you created this, now you want us to counter bid... correct?

Or have I missed something?

Eloro, not sure on international rules but one would guess so. Loads more TR1's due. Surprised we haven't had more today.

Jiagnxi get to see what's going on too so might pay them to sit on their hands for a few days and watch the reports come in.

Nice to see some II's adding to their holdings. That's what we need now. There is a clear player on the book trying to slap it down from 30p each time it rises. I suspect it's the Chinese as if they plan a next bid at 32p or something, that aint gonna look great with a sp of 31p+.

I don't think they be able to cap it much longer especially if SOLG released updated PFS or CIPA. Just a question of when to play those cards assuming both are available.

Jiagnxi might as well bang in their next bid now. Longer they wait... higher this is likely to go.

Lundin are already a big player or main player in Ecuador with production in play and profits coming in for Ecuador Gov. Like Investor Panda has said on here, they may be favourites especially if they bring in BHP as a partner. They might do that at a later date or as a JV under the vicuna JV shell.

Noboa knows them well. He also knows Chinese well too. They've done a great deal for Ecuador and much needed for infrastructure/road building amongst other things. Fine balance to play but if SOLG show a willingness to move along for the right price, then that could speed up a lot of things for Noboa so he'll be on the side of the deep pocketed majors or Chinese... not us!

Should Jiagnxi fail or walk away 'time' does then become a factor as those royalty stream deal (which any future buyer does not want etc) buy back options lapse. So their is a naturally path here for other bidders to follow regardless of Jiagnxi. I always thought Q1 2026 would be the time someone made a move but as we know, Jiagnxi have inside knowledge on the asset due to their Mr Liu being on board and due to their site access / technical assistance. So Jiagnxi have a head start and others coming into this would need extensive Due diligence which takes time etc and there isn't much time for all that after Q1 passes as first royalty stream deadline is mid to late Q3 I believe.

A bid will come in next 4 months regardless of Jiagnxi imho.

Solaris Resources is another example, it's valued at just under £1bln and it's assets are no where near as good as SOLG's. But the market has priced it higher. Doesn't make it correct. But have Solaris had a bid? NO. Have Solaris sorted a $750m stream deal? NO! Have Solaris got a cheap mine with low capex? NO.. it's $3.7bln and their metal pricing in their PFS uses PoG at 50% higher than SOLG!!!

Yet the market is happy t price them at almost £1bln. If the market applied the same logic and pricing to SOLG, we'd be £1+ a share now. Bid offers from Jiangxi would then likely come in at a typical 30% premium.... so around £1.30 a share.

Jiangxi have seized the op to bid low so that when they come back with say a 40p offer... it suddenly looks generous!!! When in fact, it's actually still crap!

I'm confident that in todays hot metals market, a Tier 1 mine and all SOLG's regional licences cannot and will not go cheap. It's too rare an opportunity and exactly what the majors are looking for right now. If the metals market was poor and inflation sky high, then yeah... low balls can win through. But even then it's mighty rare.

Well... that's the risk of the game. If Jiangxi offer say 40p (which would be rejected under normal circumstances) but board of directors recommend it based on Jiangxi gaining xy and z committments (sangha, irwin, poss NMM etc) so Jiagnxi may have 22% committed to offer etc, then what follows is either Jianxi walks away with it or someone like BHP or NMM step in and offer more.

As sad as it may seem... sometimes accepting a lower offer than you should may well (in the end) deliver a much much higher price as bid auction commences etc.

The risk is... a bid war doesn't happen and Jiagnxi walk away with it.

But can't see that myself as you rarely see quality assets (Tier1 top ten globally) sell cheap. Majority of Tier1 projects see 50%/50% JV deals or similar and $2.5bln committed by both parties. Whether that's Oz minerals, Filo or NGEX etc... proven examples show it's valued on resources/risk and not on share prices or where they may have been in the past.

Good numbers Sh4reInvest. Almost makes you think it's better we go it alone! So much promise and potential in the other 60 licences. I must admit, I half expcted the first bid to drop based on ENSA alone and not including the regionals or 'all share offer'. For Jiagnxi to bid 26p for the 'lot' clearly shows they knew it was a sighter and wanted to do some feather ruffling is my guess.

FWIIW, if they offer 26p a share for the regionals and Porvenir I think it would be just about doable or fair priced based on where they are and potential in the future. That would leave SOLG with ENSA (tier 1 mine inc TAM and some other blocks up north.

So Chinese bid better suited to regionals and Porvenir. They'll have to double that offer imho before they cause any squabbling amongst our insiders et CGP gang v Mather crew.

The starter gun only got fired on Friday (or was it Monday lol!) so you never know who's been waiting in the shadows and who's ready to get stuck in.

Glencore... Rio... Barrick... Lundin...Fortescue... Nippon... Vale S.A and so on. All of them keen for a great 100% owned Tier1 mine rich in copper and gold.

All of them more than capable of topping Jiagnxi's pony bid. Jiangxi must be rather thick if they think a low ball is going to fly here. It's not.

A few years back before inflation woes and subsequent dollar / FIAT issues, metal prices were average levels. AISC's we're high. Today, the very fact that metal prices have doubled and some in most cases, throw in the trade wars and 'national security' protective orders that US has issued and that includes copper... you have a scenario that's a country mile from the old days. It's a metals boom. Copper set to surge. PoG looks solid. Finding mines that are advanced well enough to take. advantage is the hard thing. Majors have been underinvesting / developing due to covid years. Now they are behind and demand is surging. They need to replenish resources fast. That's why you saw likes of BHP make an audacious and poorly calculated move Anglo. They wanted to dictate the copper market... control it and with Anglo, BHP would have been able to do that. SOLG presents an opportunity for a major or even a mid tier player like Newmont to seriously gain a massive regional advantage. SOLG have 60+ licence blocks. There could another 3 to 6 Tier1mines in that if not more. There's probably 50 years+ of huge profits awaiting the new owner of SOLG's assets. It's not just about a Tier1mine like Cascabel... it's about becoming the number 1 player in one of the last regions in South America to fully get mining off the ground.

Norges have a history of increasing their stake before offers land. They did the same in 2022 I believe when the price was 36p. They added to their holding when rumours circulated that BHP were looking to land a bid which whispered suggested was 55p. Blackrock also loaded up. Infact, I said at the time Norges gorge's as they were buying so actively back then.

Both reduced their stakes when it turned out BHP had gone for Oz minerals and decided to not bid on SOLG.

Long termers know all this but newbies might find it a revelation.

55p was the number muted back then and that was when poG was $1800oz and SOLG only owned 85% of Cascabel. And we did have TAM then either. Yes the shares in issue have increased by 1 billion, but we've gained 15% of the Tier1 and the 100% easy M&A ownership is worth a bucket load. Majors don't like disparate ownership models. So shares in issue more than covered off by TAM and 100% ownership... just being balanced on historical basis as don't want to mislead anyone. Do your research and you'll see it's on google.

Will we see Valuestone TR1?? Did they have over 30m shares??

Been dying to know the full SOLG register... well it's being laid bare now. Everyone over 1% has to declare.

We are getting to see who's wearing shorts and who's naked as the tide goes out.

Excellent stuff Dan and Paul. Now lets have the updated PFS with thise juicy metal numbers but only drop it when the time is right. Lets make sure the market knows what's on the table as Mr market is thick as sheeeet unless told.

Newcrest kicked it off a few years back with an offer to biuy SOLG out. Newcrest were taken over by Newmont so technically the latter has made a bid but has indirectly if you follow.

BHP countered Newcrest and made a bid but SOLG declined but did offer them a slice of the pie at 45p. See link below:

https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/1229E_1-2018-10-15.pdf

And now we have the chinese coming in with the lowest share price ownership average. They hold 12.2% with an average of 13.5p. I think Newmont have 10% with average nearer 26p and BHP are highest average with 10% at around 33p.

So all three have made darts at SOLG. All three combined hold over 32% of SOLG stock. All three have gone no where for last 3 to 7 years+.

Who wouldn't want this Tier1 prize? Top ten globally and very rare as 100% owned with simple acquisition swiss entity.

BHP paid around £1bln for a 50% stake in Filo which quite frankly isn't a bad asset at all but it no where near as advanced as SOLG's Cascabel and resources to date are well behind.

I wouldn't rule out a new company coming into the mix... someone we haven't got on the share register. Someone like Lundin or even unusual move by Gina R. It's there for the taking at the right price of course.

They will certainly be trying Newmont. I think they know BHP will tell them where to go but Newmont might be interested in selling out as they inherited the 10% stake when the bought out Newcrest last year and have divested a lot of non core assets. They may have reassessed the asset (with TAM data) and decided to hang in there or who knows... they might fancy a dart themselves at sub £1bln cap. Bagging SOLG would be transformational for Newmont. Exactly what their shareholders want... large growth opportunities.

It's monday morning... Jiagnxi have 25 days+ to ponder where they want to go on this.

SOLG have 26 days to deliver the CIPA, ExploreCo plans, PFS updated with higher metal prices and TAM bolted in and more TAM assays.

And other predators waiting in the shadows can strike at any time that suits.

Going to be a very busy 3 to 4 weeks. May the games begin. Ding ding.

Humbogumbo reported to the LSE for abuse of stocks.

Lets see how the london stock exchange deal with him. No point reporting him to this BB although I think they are culpable if they allow such trolling. Perhaps the moderators to think about that one??