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Oh. Sorry can someone also explain to me why their Twitter has gone from 900usd oz AISC to now saying over 900usd oz cash cost. There is a massive difference!

Anyway. I'm clearly rubbing people up the wrong way by asking these simple questions so I will draw a line under it.

Let me know when you all start pumping again so I can jump on board

Net box- whilst I applaud you for not naming names I'm going to assume you were directing your message at me. at least in part.

So taking one of my issues can you please demonstrate to me where and how they have saved 100 usd per oz including how this is 100usd an oz for every oz whether it be 500oz or 1000oz they are producing.

Please also demonstrate this saving in the figures they have produced.

Ta

Pokerchips- I agree the market is not considering the cash on its balance sheet. Thus it's being irrational.

Thats the game, buy whilst the markets being irrational and wait for the correction.

It will come.

Nearly 60% of the market cap covered by cash. I am happy to take the risk.

Again comes back to risk reward. The upside is heavily biased to the downside. Also I have to say I have read so many updates by 'professionals' that have been so wildly wrong I tend to stick with my own thesis.

If it drops I just got my timing wrong and will add if it drops by more than 10%. I have no need for cash so happy to sit until profits are made OR circumstances change within PB to make me think I called it wrong.

Buy when others are fearful.

Please read the latest RNS. That cash position was then. We need to be looking at the NOW:

Our cash position as at 31 October 2021 was approximately £58m (31 October 2020: £75.8m), which reflects a period of significant investment in digital, non-recurring costs incurred in managing the business through the pandemic and one-off exceptional costs in transitioning to a fully-employed model. We expect the cash position to stabilise in the second half of the year.

Yes lots of cash still but not quite the 74m!

Was suprised by the fall today. Thought we finally cracked it!
Then again I think the market wants to know how they will deal with the debt. Having thought about this quite a lot I actually think they may delay any news on it until next update after Christmas to see how trading went so they can see how much they are going to cover with cash flow and how much potential dilution there could be!

I just hope if there are new shares issued the current holders get an option to participate as we have been holding on through think and thin....

Just my opinion btw doeant mean I will be right. I do think adding at these levels is a great opp! Even with a risk there could be a small raise as any dip after that would be short lived.

I'm always transparent - after all its everyone buying into the hype that makes it such a good trade.

Down near 10% in one day. This is after the good RNS?
I think many agree and are doing the same.

Hi AG,

Nice responses, good to see you know what the company is about. I have said all along if they pull it off long term they could do extremely well.

At the end of the day you read the news in a positive light. I read it that the board are setting expectations way to high. When BoD do this and dont deliver SP gets hammered.

So far I have been right and my trades actually spot on. Will I continue- who knows. But they have lost what 10% since the last 'positive RNS' two days ago.

I dont believe they will ever get to 800usd oz or whatever they claim it to be now and I think it will be years away if ever they hit 50k oz. I do believe dilution is on the cards and thus making a good trading opp.

I also believe they need to be more transparent. What are the actual AISC now and also not saying things like 100 usd oz saving. What does this mean, now, in 25 months time when doing 12k a year or when they plan to hit 50k per year?

I see lots claims and yes whilst progress has been made the big detail is in the numbers which is still not clear. How much of the 5m have they left?

Good luck to you is what I say. We are all in to make money. I'm just doing it differently. (Not shorting BTW)

Hope not as that would imply I got my timing wrong!

40p + by Jan will do me

The wealthy wont be buying in. They are wealthy as they look after their money. They have no need to gamble

5m was last reported many moons ago. They are barely making money from current operations and have significant investment still to make to increase production.

They are not being clear on the actual AISC. Its certianly not the 900usd oz they have mentioned.

Also there are rumours of a acquisition. With what money?

I am of the opinion a raise will come soon. For current expansion and acquisition. Small market cap so this would likely have bad impact, certianly short term.

Watching from afar.

Money to be made trading this one. Not yet an investment as too many unknowns.

Added.

Mcap 100m gbp V cash in bank makes this a very good punt if they turn it around.

So we are in agreement then! :)

So going back to my very first post tonight. I still believe it is the finance target that is creating uncertainty and as we all know the market doesnt like uncertainty so is having a negative effect on the SP.
I also think there are plenty of other shares which are sitting relatively low and look very attractive that have meant many can go off and make alternative plays whilst waiting for the uncertainty to clear.

We know CF are a cash cow and will by some form get the funds which I suspect will be a mixture of profits and some short term load or equity raise.

I really do believe once this has been made clear we will shoot back to where we should be by now.

Anyway, long night. Night!

Ok, ok I'm re reading with a new shade of light and I have to agree I'm thinking you're right.

However the date:
In accordance with the terms of the agreement, the Group has made repayments of £4.8m against the £75m Term Loan and £3.2m against the CLBILS in recognition of £8.0m Government grants received in respect of non-essential retail closure periods.

This was taken from trading update ending July '21
Therefore I make it 12 months to make the remainder balance....

You know what.....
I think the penny has dropped with me too. So that makes sense. Again I will look at this again later as it's late !!

However I do t u understand the 16months when it says July '22

Can you explain this bit, what have I missed??

"If caracal are gold producing why cant they fund everything themselves from their gold sales."

Look at the AISC and compare against gold price. No money left.

Also you have to ask if this was such a no brainer why are so many dumping?

Hey RoxburyHouse

If that's correct then yes you are right in saying the remaining balance should be cleared with profits.

I need to look at that more.

P.s why 16 months, I thought it was July '22 or have I got that wrong?

To vague again. 100 usd/ oz saving is complete sales pitch. They need to be clear. I have seen them advertise AISC of 900 usd prior to the 100 usd saving so they now claim AISC of 800 USD ???? Belony

Then they release a vague RNS with very high AISC and add this includes several one offs to excuse the high AISC.

100 usd / oz ha! Honestly amazes me how people want to buy into smoke and mirrors.

Hows the 50k oz per annum target going. Oh wait was it 25k oz? Seems everyone just happy that 12k is now the target....

Get ready for a call for more money...

I was not illustrating the fact the net profit was reducing. Merely that even in the good times the Net profit from annual sales wouldnt have covered the 70m gbp.

There is a lot going on for the reasons of the drop over the years and I personally see this being back to 1 bill gbp company especially with the online growth which generates better margin.

All I am saying is that CF need to demonstrate the debt repayment and explain how they intend to find 70m gbp from.

Many shares have made excellent recovery but CF are struggling after an initial growth. This is my understanding of why the SP is falling as it's been in decline since they released this news.

In my mind the share price is drifting because market is nervous about the repayment starting from the end of this month:

'The facilities are structured to incentivise an early reduction of overall debt with fees of up to £5m payable if pre-payments are not made in line with specified dates from 30 November 2021 through until 30 July 2022.'

Once CF have confirmed they have debts covered and how they are going to cover the 70m gbp then we will drift lower. (Charts showing strong sell at present) IMO

The 70m gbp whilst I am happy they will sort this out if you look back pre covid you have to question how the funds will be raised from NET income

NET Income 2015 = 66.40m GBP
NET income 2016 = 65.70m GBP
NET income 2017 = 58.30m GBP
Net income 2018 = 52.70m GBP

This means further debt (at what rate) or dilution is likely.

Once this is sorted I see a clear path back to approx 1.50 gbp easy with good dividends.

I am still in after collecting from 30p range. It's annoying this downward trend but I have always planned to collect the dividends when they start. I have a nice bit of dry powder ready to try and catch the bottom to add to my holding so rather than get fustrated I will use the opp to add.

I made money on here, mainly from everyone blowing hot air on a share that was yet to produce numbers. When I saw numbers being mentioned of 50k per annum and 25k per annum I knew the rise was not sustainable.

I was also very wary of the AISC they were advertising which they still havent made clear.

Next up will be a raise. I will get involved in that and sell once again when it becomes inflated.

Easy trade this one. BoD are way to optimistic and everyone believes them.