Member Info for Foresight22

The 'biggie' is that the Board needs to put the Tullow Sales Document together between now and end July; also they are Operating in a once a Century mega scale Oil Market disruption. As the Board seem to not have noticed and think they are the cause of Tullow's great new success, with them having just halved Tullow's Production by sell offs over last Account Period covered by this AGM!

Another poor AGM. Seem they have too many Directors for the current operations/Market Cap. They could have said a lot more about Reservoir & Well Performance. No mention on adapting their terrible Hedging Policy. Glad the Oil Market now will save Tullow. Directors can now go on holiday...

All good new roday. With US Refinery Cushing (“Refiner Phillips 66 believes Cushing's storage levels could ⁠reach their operational minimum, according to two sources. For Phillips 66, and a host of other U.S. refiners, Cushing is a major source of crude oil to their plants in the Midwest farm belt ​and Gulf Coast export hub.”) approaching minimum Operating Levels, US exports will not be able to increase to deflate the Crude or refined Product Global Prices.

That means Tullow SP will be moving towards high 20’s plus very soon!

Watch for West Texas Crude Price $3/BO discount to start eroding heading for Brent Price parity…

Full Oversight, ie Conduct, Oversight and Governance really matters for long term Capitalism to work. I fully understand for short term trading Directors actions, reaction, non-actions are not significant - Trades being powered by Market flux. Directors do however have responsibilities. Trouble is individuals on Boards are swamped by the herd choices. Corporate Decisions are best when Processes are inherently linked to Value Addition. As we see today BP has been caught out yet again.

See BP Chairman got caught out on three accounts: Conduct, Oversight, and Governance. Maybe Tullow Board are reconsidering too…

Good to think that Tullow is more than an Oil Hedging Play for Bankers, Shareholders may matter too after Directors filling their coffers… Seems to have taken nearly five years!

He must have heard Tullow is selling up at the end of 2026 and now finally is doing his job to increase its Value…

We all have the long stop around 20p when Tullow is put up for Sale around November.

Some Oil Storage inventories now down to some 35% of capacity. With continuing downs leading to now only some 2-3 weeks before operational minimums are being reached around the globe. 'Clock' very close to mid-night... Tick Tick Tick.

Need to watch this space, looks like the Board wants to pay itself even more! - despite their continual negative value added over the last 10 years. Proves poor Governance continues...

May 12th “The U.S. government will loan 53 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to petroleum companies in a bid to relieve elevated gas and oil prices amid the conflict with Iran.”

“The SPR, held in caverns at four sites ​on the coasts of Texas and Louisiana, currently holds about 384 million barrels.”

“The DOE has already loaned around 80 million barrels from the reserve in recent weeks, bringing the total to 172 million barrels. The U.S. government had agreed to that larger amount in March in a ​pact with more than 30 countries in the IEA to release about 400 million barrels.”

US going through Storage very quickly. Question now is how much is left when “Operational Floor Level” is reached..

What started Tullow demise was having a Board who do not understanding the business. As well documented now. Even evident today in 2025 AR as quoted.

Pg >30% for both Prospects. Ex Tullow Acreage too, when it was able to make oil discoveries in Guyana. Drilling Exploration is all part of the business cycle - but lacking today at >$100/BO oil prices. Cheaper than Ghana Oil Producers... At least SP would go up significantly.

If the Board want SP at around 100p all they need to do is to buy back into Jamaica with UOG - spend $60 million drilling two exploration wells; and finally act as an oil & gas company…

“In July, the sale of our assets in Gabon was completed for a total cash consideration of $307 million net of tax and customary adjustments. In September we sold our interests in Kenya and have realised the first two tranches of proceeds, totalling $80 million. A third tranche of $40 million is due no later than 30 June 2033, subject to a payment schedule linked to the oil price. The proceeds from these strategic disposals materially reduced our net debt and strengthened our balance sheet.”

Actual Result:

Net Debt reduced by $100 million

Massive decrease in net oil production for Tullow just as Oil Prices now increase…

If the Board actually thought for a moment about their Share Price, they would repay down the Debts as much as possible by year end as their only Board objective. With these high oil prices the Year End Proven Reserves will increase so the more Debt can be reduced will mean the resulting Corporate Ratios will look significantly better, hence finely move the SP back to the 30-50p range. This might help then getting less expensive Debt financing generating more cash available to reduce the Debt even further into 2027. Tullow will not survive as it is currently Governed unless it benefits from these current oil prices. It must wean itself off Hedging and find ways of making money from drilling 1 million BO reserve new producers.

Paying an estimated $14 million hedge cost per cargo is just funding the Banks/Traders. Board needs to stop haemorrhaging Shareholder Profits. Tullow's Hedging Policy makes no sense... Board must reconsider its position.

Tullow data/analysis released today shows why Tullow Valuation is so poor. Net Free Cash Flow based on $100/BO is only some $16/BO while at $150/BO is only some $20/BO. Its cost structure is too high to carry its current debt or to make it viable outside world conflicts. As the 2025 Capital Expenditure shows two producers cost $166 million equates to needing some 3.3 million BO reserves/well to breakeven without discounted value of time. Its wells are too expensive! Board needs to get busy and make more profitable oil rather than trying to make out it is doing a good job. if it wants make use of the Iran War which has effectively saved the company from historical bad decisions, it needs to stop losing money from hedging and actually significantly adding more profitable barrels.

Think that excludes their £1.3 billion debt.. Project Value excluding Corporate Value

13p is hardly a result based on current physical oil prices. This is the biggest oil crisis ever and Tullow is 60% hedged… Board need to consider their positioning