Member Info for Foresight22

Great news if that is true. Should have zero debt by then. Hope ex Cairn Directors stay the course on Tullow ship.

Seems strange to try and deflate the share price by talking about something that may not happen till next year, or later. Where is the GOR measurements showing Lancaster Field is producing at the Bubble Point. There will be water & oil in the tubing so THP measurements will not be actual. Publish regular GOR... What if 6 & 7Z are not draining effectively the full reservoir due to their poor well placements? Sidetrack 7Z next year - at least plan it! Rigs are all available, stacked... What is the down side?

If the current wells (more 6) is 'seeing' more in-place resources, then proves more the case for drilling simple well into the upper weathered zone (without very expensive smart completion!) with esp completion to drain more of the full Lancaster accumulation.

For those unsure on smart well - refer to Tullow experience on West Africa, NOT GOOD)

Why are Hurricane not giving us the GOR data with the production data. June again was still at original values.

Looks like they need to get on with sidetracking 7Z to the upper weathered zone to drain a wider volume. The shallow contact theory looks less likely every month.

Noted the water cut for June 2021 OGA was looking good still, 26.33%. When is the next Reserves update? 15 MMBO reserves looks light?

"Following the period end, the company (HUR) announced that, contrary to its initial guidance, it would not be able to tie back the Lincoln Crestal well to the Lancaster EPS in 2020, because of a ruling by the OGA. Unless this ruling is modified, it may not be possible to tie back the Lincoln Crestal well at all, which could mean that the tie back of future Lancaster producer wells to the EPS would require Hurricane to fund any gas export solution at its own cost."

What happened to OGA MER strategy...

SP still depressed - however very noticeable this week that trolling on water production virtually dried up - bit like 6 well water cut!. So December had the lowest reported water cut of any month under EPS operations to date. HUR only predicted 37 MMBO 2P reserves from these two wells - 6 on its own looks like producing that over next 3-4 years - some $2 billion revenue at $55/BO. Need January OGA data to confirm this if water cut still below ~2-3%. Strange HUR radio silence persisting. Data available...

7Z did have 17% water cut based on November OGA - but that means it will still produce millions BO. Would not be surprised if 37 MMBO is exceeded.

Lincoln has commercial well ready to be tied back - yet OGA seems to want it abandoned! Not very supportive of their MER objective. Value clearly present outside Lancaster Field. Delineating OWC by OGA seems very academic - need aquifer pressures to actually home down that analysis - which based on Warrick Deep looks unattainable. HUR should just assume shallow OWC - still some 1070 ft mobile oil column. Fracture basement needs more producers => more production data & monies in the bank -- not more logs. Contingent Resources are valueless today - need Reserves to effect SP.

That’s lowest water cut recorded to date! Means 6 well draining around 150 - 200 million BO. Hopefully end January will see similar production data to confirm - confidence level firming fast. Achieving at least preproduction reserves looks good-to-go.

Cannot wait to read what the trolling spoons say now! ..looks like sp value has no linkage to production value.

Northern,

All they get is headline oil rates, well PI, Reservoir Pressure, Skin. Skin will give indication how much the well could clean-up when tied back; PI key to how long Well will last before needing ESP. Oil rate is for SP! >5000 BOPD and SP back to mid fifties..

..once HUR & Spirit BoDs have approved the expenditure for LC tie-back then both companies can book ‘Proven Undeveloped’ Reserves. Once hooked-up then Proven Developed. Uplift from Resources to Reserves at least $5-10/bo. Post LC RNS only need BoD approval to claim 100 million bo Reserves.

Bdog,

How did you calculate PI? when you were a Reservoir Engineer.

SP up again... has the flaring stopped? HUR have enough info now for RNS. With and without ESP.

ESP = Electrical Submersible Pump, for the spoons.

...for those not been on DST, minor flow periods are to measure Reservoir Pressure, main flow periods are to measure Deliverability, as need Pres to calculate PI. HE will want two main flows, one without ESP and one with. ‘Very Simple’ as they say on TV ads.

on ESP

..presume latest main flow is no ESP, rates will be high on RNS.

Johnnie,

Just 6 foot, and LT holder. This sleepy ‘swam’ will soon wake up! Just like UOG, Tullow and Eco. That’s certain now. Two FB fields appraised, two toooo go.

CPR has irreducible water at 5-10%, not Perched Water. Just be happy with target 750 million BO reserves, not the 3 billion in old CPRs.

JK1,
seems strange question as so far HE only say 7Z has perched water cut... 6 did have 16 Skin so still had plugged fractures. More key is where is HE's OGA Production Data for Lancaster. OGA must be going ape! Never heard of Operator not filling data... amazing.

JK1,

Clearly you don’t understand Irreducible Water from Perched Water. 10% was for irreducible water - not Perched as stated at CMD. It’s the Perched Water production that has caused the issues with PW not being fully commissioned on AM at FOIL, re later RNS. Best to stick to facts. Email RPS if you wish, then do publish there reply!

If you were right why is SP dropped to mid forties...

...at least SP stopped going down! Need HUR to deliver proper RNS at end of LC testing in few days time. Proven Reserves seem to be all that market wants and LC not tied back till next year and needs OGA approval as New Field. Also had WD & Perched Water which both HE, Spirit and RPS did not foresee. Half percent a day is more progress than when LC was drilling. HUR production RNS at end month also should cement SP as it rises further. 60’s certainly looks on for next year - unless Spirit sale ignites HUR SP.

Struggle to see why HUR BoD so negative this year on their RNSs..