Member Info for Forensic505

Up from 210p to 250p. Right direction at least. Hopefully they build from here. GLA.

House broker has upgraded the stock this morning from Hold to Add with the headline "Momentum Improving Fast". TP 250p.

The economic big picture is absolute perfection for FRP, BEG and MANO. Would like to see FRP addressing the smaller CVL cases, as well as their undisputed expertise in Administrations. Then this company could be an enormous restructuring and insolvency outfit.

FFC - yes but my point is that its realised revenue (as opposed to more "subjective" FV). Looking at absolute numbers: $259m net income to Burford Shareholders....for a quarter of the year. Pretty decent for a company with a £2.2Billion Market Cap and an undisputed global leader in Law Finance. I find that pretty attractive.

Outstanding results. Particularly the 400%+ increase in realised gains. The real acid test for me. Exceeded expectations - this is now starting to show its real potential.

This should be interesting given the very high number of case milestones achieved now that the USA Courts are back up to speed. Game changer.

Doesn't get much better than the SEC telling you: "stop being too conservative"....

Now rocketing in the USA to $13.20

No doubt in expectation of next week's news.

Interesting...

Very strong end to trading on the NYSE yesterday. Bodes well.

Looks messy !

Completely agree Pennylots. There had to be a discount in their FV model for a "black swan" probability of Preska finding against Burford. That must now be zeroed.

If I am understanding the next stage properly (?) on 5 May, Preska will put a number on the damages and (also importantly) the interest. (I dont believe that there is any one way cost shifting in favour of the winner in the USA ?) That too would change the modelling outcome I would presume.

I cant see that recoverability from Argentina would have changed materially. It must have always been a risk factor.

So on a net basis, I agree, there could/should be upside here. But this is hellish complicated, so PDYOR. I could have this badly wrong. Not for the first time... :-(

Good debate here.

Unhooked - with respect, you do need to look at the wording of the last two announcements quite carefully: H1 was severely impacted by the back end of Covid. The insolvency laws did return back to normal at the start of H1 but that is just the beginning. The levels of insolvencies then rose very much higher but the liquidators dont/cant offer the cases to Mano straight away - they need time to investigate what has gone on . So H2 was always going to be key for them. And now we see it: 122% rise in new signed cases. That is a far higher rate than even the insolvency market has shown, so they are clearly gaining market share. Not necessarily from other Funders, the real alternative in this market is lawyers working on no win/no fee. Mano has shown that its method delivers far quicker and higher for creditor returns - so this is a really significant point as the lawyers share of the UK insolvency market is big (£500m pa).

And disclosed today: 263 signed cases for FY23 (with a crappy first half!) is way ahead of their all time best pre-Covid of about 200 if memory serves. That is when PBT was around £9m and that is what I think drove the SP to £5-6 as referred to by Theborn (who writes very well on this stock imo).

You then need to look at the high level of completions (signing cases is only half the battle) at 192. That is huge when you think about - they are completing close to a case for every business day in the last year (260 business days in a year).

Then finally the cash: £27m from older completed (up 72%). Imagine the hassle getting that in when their debtors had all the Covid excuses not to pay. So i find that impressive.

Like the journey on all the Lit Funders, this has been a bumpy ride (and like others I have been in and out at various stages on all of them) but I do think the equity story now looks as good as it could be here. Remember - this floated at 175p, 4 or so years ago. The business is a quantum magnitude larger now. As ever PDYOR.

Feels like there is genuine positive momentum finally building here. Congratulations to the LTHs.

JammyC - you lost all credibility after calling RBGP your “strongest ever conviction stock” at 120p. Currently 43p. Suggest you keep your invaluable insights to yourself lol lol

IMHO - complete disconnect over the last month between the SP (down 20%) and the Trading Update released 13 March '23 (which looked really very good).

Just looks plain wrong to me and I am assuming it will correct in due course (?)

Houston....we have lift off....

Good question Johnnyrh. My personal thesis is that the SP is heavily discounting the outcome, which is why I have re-invested recently having, very luckily, sold at 1850p shortly pre-Muddy Waters (the Founders had sold a bit at c. 1400p I think and that slightly unnerved me at the time). If memory serves the SP got up to 850p within the last year, before the certainty of a YPF win. I recall that Peel Hunt were valuing the SP at c. 1100 at roughly the same time. I think the Preska judgment answers the Muddy Waters and SEC Fair Value methodology questions very definitively. They seem to have built a good book of business ex-YPF, so I think almost no value recognised for YPF. The one risk for me is if the SEC issue turns much more malign. From what Mr Bogart very extensively explained of the situation (I listened to both recent investor calls) that would be a great surprise.

Purely my own take on the opportunity. As ever PDYOR of course.

Yes excellent work TWT and Renegade.

I am not one to make short term SP predictions but I do think there will be a lot of excitement here and in USA in the run up to Friday....after the positive Preska judgment the only question is which upside scenario emerges.

We just hit $12 on NYSE.

You’ll make it up in spades here Jammy.