Member Info for Forensic505

JammyC and I haven’t always seen eye to eye (though I have always respected his intelligence).

But I do agree with him here. Friday was a very important game changer that validated Burford on a number of important aspects. £12 next stop.

PS JC was wrong about RBGP ??

Cheaper for Argentina to buy Burford than pay the claim….!

Before Friday’s news I am pretty sure that Peel Hunt had a tp of £11. Post Friday that should be revised closer to £20. The YPF decision is a complete game changer. Puts an end to any questions the SEC could possibly have on “Fair Value”.

The CEO is laughing though. He pocketed £50m in share sales at the very top...

The UK Government’s Insolvency Service stats published last week, shows FRP still just about the number 1 Administrations appointment taker but Begbies and Quantuma are now just a few cases behind them. Very different picture to a year or two ago, when FRP was very far in front of any other firm. I think the FRP IPO has possibly served to highlight the high margins in FRP’s niche of larger, more complex Administrations and their competitors are now going aggressively after that segment.

Additionally - the Big 4 accounting groups have/are spinning off their insolvency arms so those newly independent entities can pitch for previously conflicted appointments. FRP used to have the pick of those as they were never conflicted as they were never part of a big accounting/audit group.

I like the FRP business and team, and the macro picture is excellent for them, but the share price needs to reflect these important new competitive factors before I am tempted to invest.

I would also like to see FRP attack Begbies and Quantuma’s core area of liquidations - lower value but much higher volume appointments. That is THE particularly buoyant area of the insolvency market. Administrations are actually lower year on year, at the moment at least. This would also make better use of FRP’s large overhead structure.

As ever, just my opinions, DYOR of course.

If you have a moment take at look at the Roll On Friday website and have a look at their league tables. Enlightening views by lawyers on lawyers.

Its been a rather busy (and fascinating) week for the sector!

I think the MANO trading update was excellent and exactly what we were all hoping for. The speed of growth actually exceeded my own expectations - I was expecting case numbers to be getting close to their pre-pandemic levels. In fact they are far ahead of that.

LIT's result were underwhelming in all fairness but some good post period activity, so maybe they too can rebound strongly. My concern there is the continuing large cash outflows, less so the valuation per se.

I found BUR's situation confusing. I listened to the American analyst/investor call and the situation sounded very concerning. But the UK call yesterday afternoon was much more upbeat and even implied that the new Fair Value methodology might actually enhance case values/profit rather than the opposite. They also flagged some strong recent completions and cash.

Impressive speed at work this weekend!

Indeed….a good few institutions who bought at 140p will be spitting feathers!

This share is down 32% in the last few weeks. Big off market sells at 110p late yesterday. Their recent RNS hinted at trouble ahead. More clarity now needed from this Board methinks. As ever DYOR.

RNS today - Octopus, one of the cornerstone institutions reducing.

Warno - agreed. We are on the same page.

This is a good example of where the much maligned "Fair Value accounting" proves its worth. LIT dont use it, other litigation funders do.

The problem is that you and I read that they are funding the "£1.6 Billion" Carillion Claim. We (quite naturally ) assume that this should resolve in one way or other for at least (say) £300m. We then surmise that the Funder should be getting at least 20% of that £60m, as a *** packet estimate.

But it is nothing of the sort. They made £3m from this.

If they had been using Fair Value this reality would already be in the balance sheet. Instead I have read shareholders saying things like "they have several cases that are all worth the market cap in just one case".

Keystone is a winning and a disruptive business model. Ideal in the current UK legal market.

Since their IPO, most of the Big 4 accounting groups have spun off their insolvency divisions because of conflicts on their Audit clients. Those very strong spin offs now compete head on with FRP’s for the big lucrative jobs. FRP used to announce market share data but do not this time. I suspect those new competitors will be eating into their market and that will continue.

Fair point but the market opportunity is enormous.

No lock up on the CEOs shares (12%) so there is now a big overhang in play here if she is selling into the market or her trust is. Please DYOR as we do not have the full facts but beware, this could be a pretty treacherous situation for small shareholders.

I think the cultural problem is that she is a rather bombastic entrepreneur trying to manage a lot of very clever lawyers, who don’t take kindly be told what to do. She has piled up a lot of debt acquiring Memery Crystal and her prize people assets can walk out having filled their pockets with shareholders cash. The balance sheet is the risk now. The other issue: Rosenblatt was and is all about one exceptional lawyer and marketer: Mr Rosenblatt. A lot of work to be done here to recover this in what will be a very difficult market for lawyers and their M&A business. DYOR.

...another cracking share tip by Simon Thompson of the Investors Chronicle, not.

Net debt just keeps increasing on this one. Not a good look.