Member Info for Forensic505

Administrations (FRP’s specialty) up around 15% v last year and nearly double the rate during Covid lockdown period.

Well credit to Youngs if they can make profits on a near empty pub! Looks like a very effective boycott is taking place…utter madness.

Long standing shareholder. Absolutely love this company and their entire ethos. However...slightly disturbing: good mate of mine (from one of the professions) is a BIG fan of one the old City Pub outlets in West London (dont want to be too specific and risk getting him in any bother). He's taken me there a few times and it was rammed to the rafters with well-heeled punters every time - amazing place. Massive cash cow. BUT he has been told Young's have got rather "heavy-handed" with the manager who was apparently the bloke you has successfully turned it around over the last few years and all the regulars love 'im. I have no problem with deep cuts into the City Pub duplicated central overheads/board, of course and that was very transparently flagged at the time of the take over, but (statement of the obvious) the managers at these rather quirky but very profitable niche London pubs are absolutely key to success! Am hoping sense prevails and that this is just a short term "teething" issue (not uncommon of course). We spent £162m on 50 pubs - we need them all performing to the max and if it aint broke dont fix it....! Also saw in the press today that Heineken are re-opening 62 pubs - a VERY bullish statement for the sector.

Someone posted this on another chatroom site. May be of interest:

https://albertoag.substack.com/p/manolete-partners-update-record-volume

WTF !

Did they take Molot as hostage ???

Convex sold at £13m loss.

Lionfish sold having incurred huge losses on just its first 4 cases.

Very large balance sheet write offs of WIP on historic contingent legal work.

The former management led by Nicola Foulston should hang their heads in shame. Appalling.

Tough medicine taken by new management team but didnt have any choice.

Like others have said - there might now be a take private/MBO of the remaining business. Could explain why Mr Ian Rosenblatt is stepping down from the board so quickly.

Hi All,

Different time zone!

Just looking at this now. I took a small-ish position a few months ago at 90p. I do like the CEO.

I think these are just half year results so i suppose the second half is different. Please do correct my jet lagged mind !!, but isn’t all the revenue here unrealised (like management estimates) ? So no completed cases…Is that right?

Very interesting approach/analysis extrader. Much appreciated.

I always find it very difficult to understand Burford's results. But from my reading almost all of the profit increase is down to this:

"YPF-related assets generated $543 million of unrealized gains in FY23". That is of course on top of previous YPF unrealised gains of around $750m, if my memory serves.

Isnt that quite a brave mark up given the uncertainties in Argentina's ability to pay ? Red rag to the Muddy Waters bull ?

Very helpful LittleJimmy. Very grateful for these insights and data.

Me too please LittleJimmy - where do you get the Killick and PH data from please ?

Spot on Little Jimmy....well said

At a guess: possibly it’s their former brokers Peel Hunt clearing out their stock of Mano shares as it’s now transferred to Canaccord. Nothing unusual if it’s that.

Good but some (any!) numbers would have been helpful....hopefully they will update again.

Yes - much better news

I think the issue with Threeputt's comment below is that PLC's dont run existing loan facilities right up to the end of the term. It is almost always refinanced several months before the end of the term. And if RBGP's does run to only April 2024, it really should have been refinanced by now. If that is not possible, then one should go to an alternative. But that becomes a harder "sell" for the company, because the incumbent bank has already turned the opportunity down. One then gets into "alternative" lenders, who are just voracious sharks looking for 25%++

The one positive for them is the incumbent bank's security position: i havent looked at the numbers but they need to be sure that if they do pull the plug that they can get their money back. With a people based business that is a difficult proposition. The key will be whether the debtors cover the lending exposure and I would be looking for well over 100% cover. Maybe Memery Crystal can be sold back to management to raise funds ? Ditto the corporate finance business (I forget its name). Lionfish is just a big liability (and a terrible mistake by the former CEO). Then the Rosenblatt law firm will have some positive value as long as Ian Rosenblatt is involved (he is by far the key business winner there by all accounts). But - as ever in these insolvency situations, equity shareholders will be left with absolutely nothing.

This is looking terminal now....anyone heard anything ?...

Tommy - my understanding is that it is the same legal process on a small case v a bigger case. Economy of scale - roughly the same kind of work needed. Certainly the costs will be bigger but not linear. Same I believe on the initial payment: from what I have seen they pay more for a bigger case but nowhere near linear. Bit like the fees in the M&A market: you will always want to work on a £100m takeover rather than a £5m takeover because (broadly) its the same work for a much higher fee. I have heard that analogy in the Law. Makes sense to me.

But Streets, the same "cost of running the business" applies to a PE/VC operation.

Mano seem to be rapidly building the pipeline of cases, following the two year Covid hiatus. The business looks highly operationally geared (so overheads stay stable, rather than variable, as the gross profit increases) and they say they have added inhouse lawyers already to accommodate much higher current and forecast volume.

You are right to point to the smaller cases (a point they highlighted last week) - as the first wave of cases post Covid were the smaller zombie companies. Administrations of the bigger companies now coming through, where the margins likely to be higher.

Interesting point about Arrow but I dont know that story. If they were buying debt (rather than claims) that would be a far more competitive space than buying insolvency claims where Mano seem to be the very dominant player in their sector (eg only one voted Band 1 ever by the legal industry's Chamber Guide, that I know is well respected).

Good debate. Thanks.

With respect, I do not think the “trend” is the really key point here. What other company do you know that produces more than 100% return every year for 5 consecutive years? Ever ?

Even the very finest private equity investors deliver 25% on an annualised basis.