Member Info for Forensic505

See excellent chat from last few days.

I think her consensus view is:

MRE drops within the next 8 trading days.

Zeus and SP Angel update share price fair value.

Based purely on applying an updated 12 month avg for the price of tungsten gets you to 8p.

Add significant increases in grade quality (which is vital) and volumes from very recently completed drilling programme should surpass SP Angel’s current 13p fair value.

I think the broad consensus on the board here is: 15-20p.

Welcome onboard - your timing is impeccable!

Indeed @MajorOak

Of course the general stock exchanges are down as Persia chokes on oil fumes.

But that relatively short term macro and a minuscule issue of shares to a key partner sending the stock well below 400p, and with the funding announcement now due to be issued within literally the next 8 trading days….that was just too good an opportunity to bring my average down even lower.

I think this is a perfectly sensible route forward and the Placing Price is equally sensible., underscoring and validating the recent excellent and fast rise to 4p per share. They need cash to accelerate this opportunity and a minuscule equity issue for fast cash is eminently the smart thing to do by management.

The initial immature reaction by sellers has already cost them dearly. More fool them. They shouldn’t be playing on stock exchanges if they don’t understand how capital finance and business development intertwine.

Only question is: why didn’t they name the investor ? Under London Stock Exchange rules this has to be disclosed. Period.

Just a little more patience required. We have just 9 business days to go before the end of the month...

Could be USA traders at that time.

Well said @NewOrmy

Any entry point before the MRE is a very good entry point.

If you can, please read the recent Zeus and SP Angel research. A rough summary of which is:

“Highly rated plot

Very high quality tungsten

Advanced drilling results delivering consistent data

Great management team

Our 4.8p share value is based on old volume and tungsten price data. We will be updating our fair values the moment the MRE drops in the next 9 business days”.

Couldn’t resist it. Just topped up a total of £13k at 406p per share.

Too good to miss.

One day very soon the market is going to ask: “Wait….what is this company!”

Just seen sector update from SP Angel.

Relevant extracts:

"Tungsten – armour piercing and ball bearings – China produced 79% of the 85,000t of global tungsten output last year (USGS)"....well worded!

"Strategic Minerals has moved swiftly to deploy the funds from its January raising to secure the drilling contract for an infill programme to upgrade its MRE and progress the Redmoor pre-feasibility study. We await the forthcoming revised MRE incorporating the results from the drilling in 2025 which is expected later this month".

All good with the angels.

As ever, very interesting commentary.

Much appreciated @MajorOak

Incredibly low volume….

Eerie….

@MajorOak - can you shed any light please?

I stand by my posts over a number of years relating to this “company”:

Total Mickey Mouse outfit.

Wholly unfit to be listed on the London Stock Exchange.

The Chairman has lost very big personal money by constantly doubling down on the woeful CEO buying more and more shares at 100p level.

Four months ago the CEO said he is stepping back into taking control of major cases (why on earth did he step away in the first place? WTF do we pay him to do?) yet still the results are: lose, lose, lose.

Are you Tottenham Hotspurs in disguise….😂

I agree.

Current Zeus fair value is 4.8p.

In their update, Zeus, this morning, is clearly messaging a major re-rate will be issued the moment the MRE is issued. My estimate (conservative as this number mainly driven by the widely reported far higher price if tungsten) is that Zeus will come out with a fair value by the end of this month of 10p.

The risk is on the upside. If one fully factors in the far higher volumes and far superior grade quality that have been clearly indicated by the recent raft of drillings, then the fair value could exceed 10p.

Ergo:

We will not be seeing 3p again.

I expect the share price to trade up to 5p (plus/minus 10%) in the run up to the MRE publication. With obviously a very material re-rate post MRE publication in the next 2 weeks.

Forensic recommendation: strong buy up to 4.8p with expectation of major re-rate by April.

Indeed.

We are on the same page.

Cheers.

@Propinquity - no argument with you sir. I am simply going off today's Zeus research note. As the company's broker, they will obviously have a very good and clear line into the Exec team. Zeus state in their note today, in two places : MRE this month.

All the best,

Forensic505

Many buys now going through well north of 4p and rising.

Not surprised at all.

Thats not correct.

Zeus clearly state (twice in their note of today) that the MRE will be released this month, March 2026.

The MRE is a dynamic document - once initially prepared, the MRE gets revised in real time as new drilling, avg price data etc become available.

As explained below, in my view that is correct @tungstenman.

As I stated earlier post: based purely on updating the average 12 month price of tungsten one gets to 7.75p per share.

However:

(1) as the days and weeks and months go by, the low tungsten prices from a year ago drop out of the averaging calculation. Therefore as the MRE gets updated, going forward the simple maths will drive the average tungsten price in the MRE up from $1k to $2k. Taking the fair value share price to c. 17p.

(2) the QUALITY of the volume data will also dramatically increase. Tonnages move from "implied" to "indicated" (far more accurate and therefore far higher value in the NPV model).

(3) the VOLUME data also increases because of the new high grade deposits identified PLUS the new tin findings from the current (almost completed) new drilling programme.

The contract signed as per today's RNS is critical to evidence and underpin points 2 and 3 above.

Therefore, on a FORENSIC basis, I believe your 20p estimate is likely to be conservative.

Yours truly,

Forensic505

Trying to add on HL. Literally nothing available.

Correction.

I mis-read the data. The price of tungsten has been over $2k for the past 2 months. The weighted average over 12 months is $1,050.

Therefore the revised Zeus fair value share price is: 7.75p per share.

Apologies. My bad.

Dont bother reading all the uninformed waffle. This is all you need to read.

"Strategic Minerals is not letting the grass grow under its feet. The final assays from the 2025 drilling programme have only just been reported and the new Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) due shortly, by the end of the month and Strategic has already signed a contract to complete the infill drilling programme. Management are fast-tracking this high-grade tungsten project through the stages in our view."

"Catalysts. We see multiple catalysts including: stabilisation of these historically high tungsten prices; further definition of the tin-rich, tungsten-rich zones and more clarity on the North Tin Zone; fast track drilling and news flow from the updated MRE (expected end March), infill drilling progress and assays and news on a PFS."

"Zeus View. We rate the Redmoor deposit highly. It is a stand-out tungsten resource in our view that is both growing in size and moving rapidly along the development curve. We put a fair value on the project at 4.8p per share by updating the tungsten price in our initial model to $650/t – still at a major discount to current spot. We will update our fair value in line with our new understanding of the tungsten price dynamic following the release of the new MRE."

Zeus fair value of 4.8p per share was based on tungsten price of $650....it is now over $2,000. The $2,000 has been the avg for over 15 months now and therefore clears the hurdle to be used in the MRE. Therefore, on that parameter alone the Zeus fair value of the SML share price is 14.77p.